Trade wars and geopolitical tensions have brought an era of increasing globalization to a close. And it’s upending global trade: in 2024, for the first time ever, China’s foreign direct investment recorded a net negative. After decades of constant surpluses, net FDI dropped by almost $170 billion.
But that money didn’t just disappear. Instead, it was diverted to alternative destinations. If not to China, where did those missing billions go instead?
Growing strategic competition between China and the United States has disrupted the international trade order. Multinational firms that invested heavily in China have been put in a particularly difficult position. Many have now found their futures held hostage by U.S. tariffs, great power competition, and even a potential future conflict.
This has pushed many to embrace a “China Plus One” strategy, in which they have sought to diversify away from China by finding alternative production bases in other parts of Asia. The goal is not to leave China entirely, but merely to hedge their bets, to add an alternative – a “Plus One” – to help mitigate the risks.
That means investing less in China, and more in other countries.
Southeast Asia, a fast-growing region of around 700 million people, is among the most attractive destinations. Over the past decade, global firms have actively shifted manufacturing and supply chains to countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand in order to reduce their overdependence on China.
Inflows into the region rose to $236 billion in 2023, compared with an annual average of $190 billion from 2020 and 2022.
The region has become an increasingly important global trade and manufacturing hub. But not all countries are benefitting equally. Who’s seeing the most investment from the China de-risking push? Today, we’re counting down the biggest winners.
