Bearish Tesla analyst has good news for Rivian stock investors
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Analysts at BNP Paribas have been pretty steady on Tesla, making the Wall Street firm one of the few with a bearish outlook on the stock.
BNP Paribas has an underperform rating and a $280 price target on the stock (compared to the consensus hold rating and $397.26 price target, according to MarketBeat), based on skepticism about the company’s Robotaxi and Optimus-focused plans for 2026.
BNPP analysts are very skeptical of the progress, or lack thereof, that Tesla is showing in Robotaxi and humanoid robots. According to the firm, Tesla’s Robotaxi growth in Austin and San Francisco has “stagnated,” and it seems skeptical of the company’s expansion into Dallas and Houston, referring to its “launches” with quotation marks.
Analysts said Tesla will also “require a steep ramp” to reach the 7-city expansion by the end of the year, which CEO Elon Musk promised investors during the company’s previous earnings call.
“We also don’t see much progress in Optimus commercialization,” analysts said, referring to Musk’s other promise of expanding the company’s capacity to build 1 million Optimus humanoid robots per year.
“Given Tesla’s sizable cash burn this year ($7 billion estimate by BNPP) and indications for massive multi-year investments on the horizon tied to a TeraFab and 100 GW solar capacity, the ‘stakes’ of TSLA’s demonstrated Robotaxi and Optimus progress could not be higher,” analysts said in a recent note.
Meanwhile, analysts at the firm are bullish on domestic Tesla EV rival Rivian, despite the fact that the company lags far behind Tesla. BNPP’s goals for Rivian by the end of the year are milestones Tesla has already mastered.
Elon Musk has promised investors that Tesla will more than triple its Robotaxi coverage and usher in the humanoid robot revolution by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Rivian’s goals this year seem much more attainable, so analysts at BNP Paribas are more bullish on the struggling startup EV maker.
Rivian has a $23 price target on its shares, 26% above the stock’s closing price of $16.92 on Monday, April 20.
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The firm says that while it expects better deliveries, “Rivian’s 2026 will be defined by… the Co.’s ability to offer FSD-like ‘point-to-point’ hands-free driving by year end.”
In the meantime, it says the recent $1.25 billion expanded Robotaxi partnership with Uber is enough to push the firm’s expectations for Rivian’s stock to $4 per share.
During its Autonomy & AI Day in December, Rivian introduced the Gen 3 Autonomy Computer, its third-generation compute platform, which it says will have the “leading combination of vehicle sensors and inference available in North America.”
The Gen 3 Autonomy Computer can process 5 billion pixels per second, thanks to the Rivian Autonomy Processor, its proprietary silicon chip that Rivian claims is among the first multi-chip modules used in high-compute automotive applications.
Analysts at BNP Paribas are bullish on domestic Tesla EV rival Rivian.Photo by 400tmax on Getty Images
Tesla shares had a rough session on April 20, dropping more than 2%, but the stock is still up nearly 10% over the past five sessions as it heats up heading into earnings on Wednesday, April 22.
The stock is still down 10.4% year to date, but it has seen a definite uptick in recent days.
Barclays analysts maintained an equal-weight rating and $360 price target on the electric vehicle maker, while TD Cowen analysts were bullish on the stock in separate recent notes.
“Barclays believes Terafab could cost in the mid-single-digit trillion-dollar range if fully built out. While Tesla’s capex is unlikely to ‘exponentially increase,’ a further step up from the elevated $20B figure Tesla talked to on the last earnings call is likely,” Barclays contends.
Barclays analysts pin the recent stock sell-off on a lack of guidance about the company’s Robotaxi and Optimus progress. Tesla said earlier this year it was mothballing its Model S and Model X brands to focus on robotics and AI.
According to the firm, the sell-off “could imply on the surface an opportunity for the stock to outperform” after the Q1 results are released. Barclays, however, says it takes a “more tempered view into the print,” as any suggestions of incremental capex spending “could be perceived negatively.”
Meanwhile, analysts at TD Cowen remained bullish on the company, maintaining its buy rating, while lowering its price target to $490 from $519.
The firm agrees that the lack of news about progress on Robotaxi and Optimus has “dampened sentiment” heading into the Q1 print. It also sees Tesla as better positioned than suppliers to offer investors “reassurances” and retain “guidance credibility.”
TD Cowen believes Tesla has a low risk of guiding down in the earnings call and sees a slightly positive setup for the stock heading into the earnings release on Wednesday, April 22.
Related: Rivian defies expectations despite rough EV environment
