The primary Sunday of the NFL season is without doubt one of the most enjoyable weeks on the calendar for NFL followers and sports activities bettors, marking the primary Sunday since January 5 with a full slate of NFL motion. Schedule makers know find out how to begin the season off with intriguing storylines across the league and all through the day, together with the Steelers vs. Jets at 1 p.m. ET with Aaron Rodgers making his return to MetLife Stadium, Lions vs. Packers in an NFC North battle at 4:25 p.m. ET, culminating with Ravens vs. Payments with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen going head-to-head on Sunday Night time soccer.
There are many video games to incorporate in Week 1 when on-line sports activities betting the opening week of the 2025 NFL season. With 13 video games on the primary NFL Sunday of the season, there are many choices on betting websites similar to DraftKings Sportsbook. The newest DraftKings promo code comes with a further bonus for NFL followers, providing new customers over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket as well as $200 in bonus bets after making your first $5 wager. Check it out here:
Explaining the mannequin hitting over 60% on essential market picks
The Contained in the Traces crew conceived of, developed and at present powers the SportsLine mannequin. This crew supplies 100,000s of information pushed picks to subscribers a yr, however if you wish to tail what, when and the place they really personally wager go to, bookmark and often test their free picks weblog which is being continuously up to date with their newest and hopefully biggest.
Our NFL mannequin simulates every recreation 1000’s of occasions and has carried out extraordinarily properly on prime rated unfold, complete and cash line picks, going 72-47, 60.5% +18.5 items over the past three seasons. Two issues could bounce out at you: 1, >60% is lots higher than what I’m hitting and a couple of, that is not a variety of picks. Our mannequin is totally different than most. We do not attempt to precisely forecast who’s going to cowl. Over twenty years, now we have reverse engineered oddsmakers’ fashions which has resulted in 85-90% of our projections being nearly an identical to the oddsmaker’s strains (essential markets and props). When sportsbooks’ strains differ from ours, we all know they’re possible manipulating a line to both sucker the general public or decrease threat. We determine our greatest bets by beginning with our greatest projected line values, however we construct confidence by pinpointing the stats and narratives that resulted in an incorrectly ‘manipulated’ line.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (-115 Fanatics) vs Atlanta Falcons
Most books have this at -1.5 and I feel it is value to pay -115 (vs -110) for the 0.5 level. I misplaced a Rams cowl once I did not assume 0.5 level was definitely worth the 5 ML items again within the Marc Bulger years and can always remember it. The chances implied projected rating is TB 25, ATL 24 and our mannequin’s projection is TB 30, ATL 23 so the majority of the worth on TB comes on their means to attain >25 factors. The Bucs averaged extra on the highway (31) than at residence (28) final season and in 2023 (23 on highway, 19 at residence).
Their mixed highway ATS document the previous 2 seasons is 13-5. This season’s Bucs needs to be much more dynamic with Bucky Irving absolutely entrenched because the beginning RB, Chris Godwin again wholesome, Emeka Egbuka as WR3 and the ageless Mike Evans poised for an additional, record-breaking, 1,000-yard season.
Whereas different sportsbooks have moved Tampa Bay to favorites of 1.5 factors or higher, Fanatics Sportsbook has the Buccaneers as 1-point favorites as one of the best place to make this Week 1 NFL wager. The newest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code provides new users $1,000 in No Sweat Bets in FanCash, as a robust strategy to construct a bankroll whereas getting one of the best worth on Tampa Bay.
Get the Commanders -6.5 Hook w/ McClaurin’s Contract Issues
The consensus spread has moved from Washington -7.5 to -6.5 because Terry McClaurin is holding out / holding in and the Giants always have New York fueled optimism this time of the year skewing betting action towards NY. I believe they can figure this situation out and when they do the line could go back to -7 or even -7.5 and I don’t want to lose that crucial hook.
The model is confident in Washington and while the odds project a score of WAS 26, NY 19.5 our model has it at WAS 32.5, NY 19. So the value is 95% coming from Washington’s ability to score over 26 points. And even if McClaurin isn’t there he’s not worth more than 5 points.
New York drafted Abdul Carter and as great as he is pass rush wasn’t New York’s problem last season. The Giants had the 8th most sacks in the league last season but still allowed the 12th most points (24.4). Washington’s offense averaged 30 per game last season. We are banking on McClaurin being healthy and happy as a member of the team by Week 1 and we also believe that Deebo Samuel can contribute as a creative ‘duel threat’ receiver and runner in Washington’s system.
You can get -6.5 at the standard juice pretty much across the board so bet where you can get the best Week 1 offer.
Seahawks +120 live home underdogs at DraftKings vs 49ers
The 49ers are being given a pass for their bad 2024 season and are as much as -130 favorites at Seattle. Our model isn’t being so kind because while not having Christian McCaffrey hurt the 49ers, they did still get plenty of rushing productivity going from 4.8 ypc w/ McCaffrey in ’23 and 4.7 ypc largely without him in ’24. And while McCaffrey does add a lot to the passing game so did Deebo Samuel who is now in Washington.
The bigger issue for the 49ers is their defense was lousy on the road last season allowing 30.4 points per game. The Seahawks’ defense is going to be much improved with Mike Macdonald Year 2. He proved at Michigan and then with the Ravens that his schemes are worth 3+ points in points allowed and does not need huge splashy free agents or top 5 draft picks to get tremendous productivity from defensive players to see major statistical improvements. The +120 implies a 45.4% chance of winning while the model has Seattle winning nearly 58% of the time.
Geno Smith completed a high% but was ineffective in the Red Zone. Sam Darnold clearly benefited from playing in the MIN system but the trio of Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Cooper Kupp should complete a higher % of passes than the trio of Geno, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. They won’t have as many explosives, but you should see at least 90% the productivity you saw from Seattle offensively last season.
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More Picks Including: Cowboys and Eagles
Again, the picks you see above are just a fraction of what’s available for free at our blog. We’ll have a ton of player props once those Week 1 line are posted including our best bet for the season opener between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Also, check out the latest BetMGM promo code, which gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses, which can be used towards Week 1 NFL betting.
