Truckstop.com/Bloomberg Intelligence midyear survey reveals trade resilience as carriers and brokers navigate difficult situations. The freight trade’s grassroots operators aren’t falling by the wayside simply but. Regardless of income challenges and tariff considerations, 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers count on volumes to rise or keep flat over the following six months.
A difficult first half of 2025 left many carriers and brokers scrambling to take care of margins or get well from what looks like a year-long, unending massacre. A brand new midyear survey from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence exhibits the small fleet and brokerage neighborhood stays cautiously optimistic in regards to the months forward.
The survey, which captured responses from 204 service corporations and 185 brokerages, paints an image of an trade that’s been battered however not damaged. Whereas income progress has been elusive for many, solely 16% of carriers and 36% of brokers reported year-over-year positive aspects; the bulk nonetheless consider higher days are coming.
“Many carriers and brokers remained optimistic via the primary half of 2025 regardless of dealing with difficulties,” mentioned Todd Markusic, buyer insights supervisor at Truckstop.com. “Whereas the freight market underperformed within the second quarter, with no clear decision for the way tariffs will impression the economic system, many within the trade expect a restoration within the subsequent six months.”
That optimism interprets into concrete expectations: 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers consider freight volumes will both enhance or stay flat over the following six months.
For carriers, the speed surroundings continues to be a blended bag with heavy doses of uncertainty.
Solely 17% mentioned charges have improved for the reason that second quarter of 2024, although 42% count on charges to climb within the third quarter. That’s down 13 proportion factors from first-quarter expectations, suggesting the truth of a protracted smooth market is setting in.
Practically half of carriers, 48%, admitted they’re uncertain when charges will lastly backside out, a seven-point enhance from the primary quarter. But 84% nonetheless consider charges will both rise or maintain regular over the following six months.
The load quantity image is barely extra encouraging. Amongst carriers, 56% mentioned volumes through the second quarter have been up or flat in comparison with the identical interval final yr, and 79% count on their revenues to stay steady or enhance over the following six months.
Brokers, in the meantime, are portray a extra optimistic image of their market situations.
Evaluating the primary half of 2025 to the identical interval final yr, 39% of brokers mentioned spot charges elevated, whereas 78% reported contract charge enhancements. Income efficiency was equally sturdy, with 72% seeing flat or optimistic income progress through the first half.
Most brokerages are working on 15% gross margins, and 69% consider their present margins are increased than each halves of 2024. Trying forward, 82% count on gross margins to extend or keep flat over the following six months.
The survey revealed a notable hole between how carriers and brokers view demand traits.
Whereas 19% of carriers reported year-over-year load quantity will increase, 37% of brokers reported increased volumes. That disparity extends to forward-looking expectations: 52% of carriers count on demand to develop over the following three to 6 months, whereas 83% of brokers consider demand might be up or flat over the following six months.
The distinction possible displays brokers’ broader market visibility and their potential to shift between completely different service relationships as situations change.
The specter of commerce coverage continues to forged a shadow over trade sentiment.
Carriers are more and more involved about tariffs delaying any significant freight restoration. Thirty-eight p.c now consider tariffs will considerably harm the trade, up from 30% within the earlier quarter. Total, 55% say tariffs may have a minimum of some damaging impression.
Brokers have additionally soured on the present administration’s insurance policies. In December, 74% thought the administration would profit trucking. Six months later, solely 44% preserve that view.
Regardless of the commonly optimistic outlook, monetary pressures are forcing many operators to pump the brakes on progress investments.
Solely 21% of carriers plan to buy new tools, down sharply from 38% within the first quarter. Equally, simply 40% of brokerage corporations count on to rent further brokers in 2025, in comparison with 52% in December 2024.
The pullback displays the truth of working in a margin-compressed surroundings the place money preservation usually trumps enlargement plans.
Job satisfaction metrics counsel the trade’s human capital challenges aren’t getting dramatically worse, even when they’re not bettering both.
Amongst brokers, job satisfaction dipped modestly to 78% from 83% in December. For carriers, satisfaction dropped extra notably to 54% from 65% within the first quarter.
Nonetheless, solely 10% of carriers are contemplating leaving the trade, a change of only one proportion level from 9% within the first quarter. Amongst brokers, simply 6% expressed job dissatisfaction in comparison with 18% of carriers.
The survey focused the trade’s grassroots operators, with 75% of service respondents working 5 or fewer vehicles. Flatbed carriers comprised the biggest phase at 49% of responses.
On the brokerage facet, corporations with 1-50 staff accounted for 68% of respondents, representing the small to mid-sized brokerages that deal with a lot of the trade’s spot market exercise.
The persistence of optimism amongst these smaller operators, who sometimes really feel market pressures first and most acutely, suggests the freight neighborhood’s perception in an eventual turnaround stays intact regardless of the difficult working surroundings.
Whether or not that optimism proves justified will largely rely on how shortly broader financial situations enhance and commerce coverage uncertainties resolve. For now, the trade’s grassroots operators are hunkering down and betting that higher occasions are forward.
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