UFC 321 fight card predictions: Expert picks for Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

There’s nothing fairly like a heavyweight championship combat, and that is what UFC followers can be handled to Saturday when Tom Aspinall makes the primary protection of his title in opposition to two-time former title challenger Ciryl Gane within the major occasion of UFC 321. As well as, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba will battle for the vacant girls’s strawweight championship within the card’s co-main occasion.

Aspinall has been spectacular since coming into the UFC, working by way of opponents with ease en path to capturing the interim heavyweight championship. Aspinall by no means obtained a shot to unify the interim title with the total title earlier than former champion Jon Jones retired and vacated the belt, resulting in Aspinall being elevated to undisputed champion.

Gane did not win the title in two earlier bids, dropping a call to Francis Ngannou and dropping to Jones by submission within the first spherical. He now will get what is probably going his last alternative to turn into UFC champion.

Along with the 2 title fights, Umar Nurmagomedov appears to be like to earn a second shot at Merab Dvalishvili and the bantamweight championship when he faces Mario Bautista. Additionally, a future heavyweight title contender could possibly be established when Jailton Almeida battles Alexander Volkov.

With a lot occurring on Saturday evening, let’s look nearer on the full combat card with the newest odds earlier than we get to our employees predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities which you can think about earlier than hitting the sportsbooks.

UFC 321 combat card, odds

Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook

• Tom Aspinall (c) -345 vs. Ciryl Gane +275, heavyweight championship
• Mackenzie Dern -155 vs. Virna Jandiroba +130, vacant girls’s strawweight championship
• Umar Nurmagomedov -625 vs. Mario Bautista +455, bantamweights
• Jailton Almeida -225 vs. Alexander Volkov +185, heavyweights
• Azamat Murzakanov -115 vs. Aleksandar Rakic -105, gentle heavyweights
• Nasrat Haqparast -112 vs. Quillan Salkilld -108, middleweights
• Ikram Aliskerov -245 vs. Junyong Park +200, middleweights
• Ludovit Klein -135 vs. Mateusz Rebecki +114, lightweights
• Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady -118 vs. Matheus Camilo -102, lightweights
• Valter Walker -360 vs. Louie Sutherland +285, heavyweights
• Jose Delgado -148 vs. Nathaniel Wooden +124, bantamweights
• Hamdy Abdelwahab -425 vs. Chris Barnett +330, heavyweights
• Azat Maksum -375 vs. Mitch Raposo +295, flyweights
• Jaqueline Amorim -410 vs. Mizuki Inoue +320, girls’s strawweights

UFC 321 predictions, picks

With such an enormous major occasion on faucet, the crew at CBS Sports activities went forward with predictions and picks for the principle card from Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Smart.

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane predictions

Campbell: Regardless of the strain firmly on him to reside as much as the hype that in the end compelled Jon Jones to keep away from him, Aspinall could not have requested for a greater fashion matchup than the one he has in opposition to Gane. The irritating timeline that Aspinall has been compelled to navigate all through Jones’ indecision solely supplied him extra time so as to add to his sport. And Gane, who is basically devoid of a threatening floor sport, does not possess something near the sort of one-punch energy that Aspinall has as a way to finish the combat at any given time. Gane additionally has a historical past of folding in huge moments and enters his third shot on the title since 2022 on something however a scorching streak. Aspinall could get pushed previous the second spherical for the primary time as a professional resulting from Gane’s motion, however the inevitability of an Aspinall knockout remains to be very a lot in play as soon as he finds his timing. 

Brookhouse: Gane is an effective heavyweight, not an amazing one. Gane additionally should not be ready to problem for the UFC heavyweight title for a 3rd time, contemplating he was gifted a win over Volkov in his most up-to-date combat. There’s a easy actuality to this combat, and it is that Aspinall has the larger energy on the toes and the higher grappling for wrestling and submissions. Gane struggled to defend Francis Ngannou’s takedowns, and Jon Jones ran by way of him like nothing. Gane has good technical hanging, however with out big one-shot energy, it is laborious to see how he retains Aspinall from doing no matter he needs, at any time when he needs to do it.

Mahjouri: I believe extra extremely of Gane than most individuals do, however that is not sufficient for me to aspect with him. Aspinall is an apex trendy heavyweight: athletic, highly effective, quick, and expert. Gane’s takedown protection is his most obtrusive subject. Ngannou, not recognized for his wrestling, took him down with a torn MCL. Afterwards, Jones swiftly submitted him, and Alexander Volkov scored 75% of his tried takedowns in opposition to Gane. “Bon Gamin” is perhaps probably the most visually spectacular heavyweight striker, however he is not a lot of a one-shot KO artist. Aspinall has a extra well-rounded sport and better ending potential. I would not be stunned if the champ will get him down early. Aspinall by submission. 

Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba predictions

Campbell: Within the 4 years since their first assembly, Jandiroba has gone 6-1 with wins over one high contender after one other. Dern, in the meantime, has gone simply 5-4, with simply as many flat performances as she has had breakthrough wins. Dern has even gone on document to confess she would not have felt able to face Zhang Weili for the belt simply but had the previous champion not vacated her title. For all the flashy submission expertise and famous warrior spirit, Dern stays a come-forward and emotional striker whose approach typically falls aside the extra chaotic a combat turns into. That is the place Jandiroba, who may really be the higher wrestler of the 2, can fill within the gaps along with her well-rounded and really technical fashion. In elite MMA, momentum issues, and Jandiroba’s five-fight win streak has made her a formidable risk for the belt. 

Brookhouse: I do not really feel overly assured in both girl’s probabilities heading into the combat. Dern generally falls in love along with her hanging, which isn’t her energy, however she’s in all probability higher than Jandiroba on the toes. On the bottom, issues are one thing of a wash, with Dern being the higher pure jiu-jitsu participant, however Jandiroba could also be a bit higher at making use of jiu-jitsu to MMA. Throw out the 2020 combat as a result of each fighters have advanced since then. I am rolling with Jandiroba primarily based on Dern’s historical past of delivering unhealthy performances in opposition to quite a lot of opponents, however I am not doing it with confidence.

Mahjouri: Jandiroba’s evolution has eclipsed Dern’s, even when it isn’t strikingly apparent. The most important signal is their shared performances. Jandiroba rides a five-fight profitable streak, together with wins during the last three fighters to beat Dern. Neither contender is a compelling striker, and each have the jiu-jitsu expertise to keep away from being submitted. Wanting a Hail Mary, the combat comes all the way down to who wins the takedown and management battle. Jandiroba is superior on this regard and may win a call.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista predictions

Campbell: There could also be only one bantamweight on the earth able to ending Merab Dvalishvili’s title reign. However earlier than Nurmagomedov can earn a second probability after developing quick in January (regardless of breaking his left hand early within the bout), he might want to get by a red-hot Mario Bautista. From the standpoint of talent versus talent, this combat is Nurmagomedov’s to lose, which is why he is greater than a 6-to-1 betting favourite regardless of Bautista’s eight-fight win streak. Nurmagomedov has stated main as much as the combat that he is not going to take too many probabilities as a way to be sure that he secures the win, and that his focus can be on grappling and submitting Bautista. Now absolutely wholesome with some extent to show, search for Nurmagomedov to bounce again in a giant means. 

Brookhouse: The percentages are out of line for this combat. Bautista is an excellent fighter, however in a means that always will get ignored. I might not be shocked if Bautista managed to scrape out a win on Saturday. I might not, nevertheless, wager on that occuring. Nurmagomedov goes to get his takedowns as a result of he’ll throw a ton of them at Bautista. On the bottom, Nurmagomedov ought to be capable of exert sufficient management to discover a submission or simply grind away to the scorecards. This combat is Nurmagomedov’s to lose, however I do not assume it should be straightforward and there could also be some unhealthy moments for him alongside the way in which.

Mahjouri: Nurmagomedov did not lose a lot inventory in his failed bid for the bantamweight title. With a number of changes, many consider he is nonetheless most suited to beat Merab Dvalishvili. Umar, cousin of UFC Corridor of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, definitely gave Dvalishvili his hardest title combat. That is why he needs to be favored in opposition to Bautista. Each fighters are well-rounded athletes who thrive on the scorecards and with submissions. However Nurmagomedov does virtually all the things higher. Hanging accuracy and protection, and takedown offense and protection, are stats the place Nurmagomedov edges Bautista. It’s going to in all probability go quarter-hour, however Nurmagomedov may have his hand raised.

Who will win UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane, and the way precisely does the combat finish? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and discover out.