It’s Week 4 within the NFL.
Time to speak in regards to the New York Jets’ future at quarterback.
Alas, the Jets discover themselves in a quarterback conundrum, one which has felt endless for the previous couple of … a long time. Zach Wilson is clearly not the answer, now or sooner or later. This season feels prefer it may go off the rails shortly, if it hasn’t already, ought to he stay the starter. The Jets are 1-2 and face the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, the defending Tremendous Bowl champions, on Sunday evening.
There may be numerous dialogue about what the Jets ought to do at quarterback proper now — signal Carson Wentz, commerce for Gardner Minshew, and so on. — however that might solely present a short lived repair. They signed Trevor Siemian to the observe squad on Tuesday, however he’s not precisely a playoff-caliber quarterback, both. Siemian, 31, misplaced the battle to be Joe Burrow’s backup to Jake Browning over the summer time.
There are reputable questions on what the Jets’ future seems like at quarterback, whether or not Aaron Rodgers returns in 2024 or not. Proper now, he appears to wish to play subsequent season.
With Rodgers out with an Achilles tendon tear, the Jets are clearly now not contenders in 2023, like they had been purported to be. If this season goes poorly sufficient, it’s truthful to wonder if it should price anybody (like coach Robert Saleh) their jobs. That additionally components into the equation. There are a couple of alternative ways this could go.
Possibly it ends with the Jets lastly determining the quarterback place. Historical past says: Don’t financial institution on it.
However right here is every thing to think about: from Rodgers, to Wilson, to potential 2024 free company targets and whether or not the Jets would possibly take into account drafting a quarterback within the first spherical (once more).
The Aaron Rodgers issue
When Rodgers spoke to Pat McAfee in his first interview post-Achilles damage, he threw down the gauntlet: “Give me the doubts. Give me the timetables. Give me all of the issues that you simply suppose can, ought to or will occur, as a result of all I would like is that one little further % of inspiration; that’s all I would like. Give me your timetables. Give me your doubts. Give me your prognostications, after which watch what I do.”
Clearly, he’s extremely motivated. Rodgers additionally didn’t say something definitive, although, and is susceptible to altering his thoughts. Keep in mind: By his personal admission, he was 90 % certain he would retire till his “darkness retreat” in February.
Rodgers has numerous time to take a seat round and take into consideration his future. Proper now, he’s mendacity round his residence in Malibu, ready for the clearance to fly again to New Jersey to be with the Jets as he rehabs.
If Saleh and normal supervisor Joe Douglas wish to discover solace in something, it’s that the promise (or theoretical promise) of Rodgers returning in 2024 ought to maintain their jobs secure, until this season really turns right into a catastrophe. If the Jets fall in need of the playoffs, once more, regardless of having a playoff-caliber roster, it wouldn’t be out of character for proprietor Woody Johnson to name for some kind of main change. The Jets’ offense has been the worst within the NFL by most metrics, which might presumably put offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett on the chopping block.
However keep in mind: Rodgers has publicly acknowledged since his introductory information convention that Hackett was the highest motive why he finally determined to hitch the Jets. In the event that they moved on from Hackett, would that change Rodgers’ plan? Rodgers has additionally spoken extremely of Saleh. This all begs the query of how dedicated Rodgers really is to enjoying for the Jets — and nobody else — in 2024.
The Jets in all probability shall be 1-3 after Sunday’s sport in opposition to the Chiefs. In a worst-case state of affairs, what in the event that they win someplace within the vary of 4 to 6 video games?
That’s not even factoring within the different facet of the Rodgers equation: He was already seen by some across the league as on the decline, as a 39-year-old quarterback coming off his worst season with the Packers. In 2024, he’ll be a 40-year-old quarterback coming off Achilles surgical procedure. And even when it goes properly, would Rodgers really wish to maintain enjoying past subsequent 12 months?
These are all unanswerable questions proper now, however all issues the Jets might want to issue into their decision-making subsequent offseason — and to begin serious about ahead of later.
Zach Wilson, and the way to transfer on
Possibly Rodgers’ future is unclear. However Wilson’s is just not.
He isn’t an NFL-caliber beginning quarterback, it doesn’t matter what Saleh stated after Wilson’s newest stinker, a 15-10 loss to the Patriots.
“Generally the field rating doesn’t at all times inform the story,” Saleh stated.
Saleh benched Wilson twice final season — first for Mike White, then for Chris Streveler throughout a Week 16 loss to the Jaguars. Saleh didn’t even take into account enjoying Wilson in Week 18 in opposition to the Dolphins, a meaningless sport after the Jets had already been eradicated from the playoffs.
Now, Saleh appears to be in much less of a rush to bench him once more. Till Tuesday, Tim Boyle was the Jets’ solely different possibility at quarterback, as Douglas had confoundingly declined to signal anybody else within the weeks since Rodgers’ damage.
“I feel he’s enjoying with confidence,” Saleh stated of Wilson. “I feel he’s delivering, he’s throwing the ball precisely when it’s in timing and rhythm, and his foot hits his backstep and he lets that factor rip, it’s fairly. He’s doing a very nice job in that regard.”
Per TruMedia, Wilson ranks final amongst 34 qualifying quarterbacks in completion share (52.4), passer ranking (57) and EPA per dropback (-0.30), and his common time to throw (3.12 seconds) is the longest within the NFL. He additionally ranks thirty first on cross makes an attempt touring 20-plus yards, thirty first in touchdown-to-interception ratio and thirty second in yards per cross try. Professional Soccer Focus ranks him thirty second of 34 qualifying quarterbacks with just one “huge time throw” in 84 cross makes an attempt.
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The Jets shouldn’t be enjoying one other sport with him as their beginning quarterback, and so they actually can’t go into 2024 with the danger of getting to play him once more. Finally, one of many largest errors the Jets made this offseason was not bringing in a veteran quarterback to compete with Wilson to be Rodgers’ backup. It seems particularly unhealthy after different high quality backups signed elsewhere for affordable, like Minshew (one 12 months, $3.5 million), Teddy Bridgewater (one 12 months, $3 million), Josh Dobbs (one 12 months, $2 million) and White (two years, $8 million).
Wilson can’t be the Jets’ starter in 2024. He can also’t be their backup. Chopping him can be expensive — $11.1 million useless cap, zero financial savings — so perhaps they’ll persuade somebody to take Wilson off their fingers for a conditional late-round decide. Baker Mayfield (the 2018 No. 1 decide of the Browns) was traded to the Panthers for a fifth-round decide in 2022, however he’d achieved greater than Wilson has up to now. The Jets might need to accept a seventh.
Zach Wilson was purported to spend 2023 watching and studying from Aaron Rodgers. (Vincent Carchietta / USA In the present day)
If Rodgers stays …
The Jets nonetheless must make some strikes at quarterback. The No. 1 precedence this offseason can be so as to add a greater No. 2 quarterback, and in addition decide whether it is value drafting a quarterback to develop for the long run. I’d heard the Jets had been even keen to select a quarterback in 2023 if the appropriate one had fallen to them (none did).
If the Jets merely add a veteran backup, some projected free-agent choices embody Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock, Tyler Huntley, Minshew and Dobbs.
As for the NFL Draft: What if Rodgers sticks round? The Jets will maintain their first-round decide in 2024 since Rodgers received’t play 60 % of the staff’s snaps this season. As a substitute, the Packers get the Jets’ second-round decide as a part of the Rodgers commerce.
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I requested Nick Baumgardner, one in every of The Athletic’s draft writers, for his or her quarterback choices subsequent spring. Right here’s what he instructed me:
“With the roster so robust elsewhere, the Jets can enter the Caleb Williams-Drake Maye sweepstakes if they want. It could price so much, in fact — a bunch of future picks (together with a number of firsts and sure a sweetener). New York may do that with or and not using a wholesome Rodgers, although sitting a participant like Williams or Maye for a 12 months doesn’t actually really feel value it.
“A extra affordable state of affairs could possibly be to simply stick and decide. This draft class is one of the best we’ve seen on the QB place in years, and never simply on the high. The depth right here is terrific. Williams and Maye shall be gone early, however Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and even Duke’s Riley Leonard could possibly be affordable choices to take a seat behind Rodgers for a 12 months earlier than strolling into an amazing state of affairs. All would match the Jets’ present system and are versatile sufficient to play in others. These are younger passers who’ve first-round traits when it comes to arm expertise and athleticism however would possibly require a while earlier than discovering their groove within the NFL. The expertise outweighs the unhealthy habits, however unhealthy habits exist right here. Studying below Rodgers can be terrific for any of those guys.
“The Jets may additionally simply wait and play the board, particularly if Rodgers is again wholesome for another 12 months. The concept of snagging Oregon’s Bo Nix or LSU’s Jayden Daniels in a later spherical can be intriguing. Dropping Rodgers is a catastrophe and this season goes to be actually arduous for Jets followers, clearly. However there’s hope right here due to the depth of this upcoming QB class.”
If Rodgers goes …
Nicely, then the Jets virtually actually would look into drafting a younger quarterback. If Rodgers not returning additionally means Douglas and/or Saleh had been fired, that might change into extra possible. If Rodgers didn’t return and Douglas was retained? Then the Jets is perhaps extra keen to pursue a veteran who can assist them win straight away.
When it comes to free brokers, the Jets may strive their hand (once more) at signing Kirk Cousins. The Jets appeared into Matthew Stafford this offseason earlier than getting Rodgers. And the connection between Kyler Murray and the Cardinals bears watching.
Finally, although, if Rodgers doesn’t return, it’s doable the Jets merely flip to a different rebuild.
(High illustration: Samuel Richardson / The Athletic; pictures: Patrick McDermott and Al Bello / Getty Photographs)
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