Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming is without doubt one of the most debated industrial insurance policies on the planet as we speak. With robust backing from Tsingshan Holding Group and Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry Co Ltd, two main Chinese language metal producers, the Indonesian authorities has pursued an formidable nickel-based industrial technique, often framing it as a step toward EV battery leadership.
Indonesia’s nickel processing makes use of the nation’s plentiful reserves of low-grade nickel to supply two principal merchandise: Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and ferronickel, that are primarily used for chrome steel, and Combined Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), an important ingredient in EV batteries.
Regardless of Indonesia’s push for EV battery manufacturing, NPI and ferronickel make up almost 80 percent of its nickel processing, whereas MHP accounts for lower than 20 p.c. In consequence, solely a small fraction of Indonesia’s processed nickel helps EV batteries.
The paradox is that regardless of huge authorities incentives for nickel processing, a lot of the processed NPI, ferronickel and MHP are exported to China quite than supplying home industrialization. This raises the query: Are Indonesia’s nickel-based industrial insurance policies – framed as a method of including worth by selling EV battery manufacturing – really related, or do they characterize a coverage mismatch?
To deal with this query, the article is structured into three key segments. First, it analyzes the federal government incentives within the nickel sector and argues that they’re pointless and expensive for Indonesia. Second, it explores who the first beneficiaries of Indonesia’s nickel-based industrial technique are. Lastly, it assesses the broader implications of those dynamics for Indonesia’s industrial technique.
Pointless Incentives
The Indonesian authorities has launched three key incentives for nickel-based processing: earnings tax holidays, low nickel ore costs, and power subsidies.
The tax vacation for nickel processing corporations can final from 15 to twenty years, permitting main buyers like China’s Tsingshan Group, which has invested practically $10 billion in Indonesia since 2015, to learn from 20 years of earnings tax exemptions.
Nonetheless, fiscal incentives will not be the first drivers of Chinese language funding in Indonesia’s nickel sector. Two key components make Indonesia engaging: the nation’s ban on the export of ore, and its backed home coal costs.
The 2020 ore export ban considerably elevated world nickel ore costs, as Indonesia controls 42 percent of the world’s nickel reserves. Whereas Indonesia has beforehand imposed partial export restrictions, the 2020 ban marked a whole halt. Though this coverage drove up world nickel costs, the Indonesian authorities regulates home nickel ore costs, protecting them a lot decrease than worldwide charges. This gives a robust incentive for corporations to ascertain processing amenities in Indonesia, as uncooked materials prices are considerably cheaper.
Moreover, Indonesia’s power coverage additional reduces prices for nickel processing companies. Since virtually 70 p.c of Indonesia’s energy crops run on coal, the federal government enforces a Home Market Obligation (DMO), requiring coal producers to promote 25 p.c of their output domestically at regulated costs. For comparability, in 2023, within the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the worldwide coal worth reached $350/ton, whereas Indonesia’s DMO worth was capped at $75/ton. In regular conditions, the DMO costs are 25 p.c to 30 p.c decrease than world market costs.
Nickel processing depends on energy-intensive furnace know-how, with coal-fired power plants supplying electricity. In consequence, Chinese language nickel processing corporations in Indonesia profit from each decrease ore costs and decrease power prices, considerably decreasing their operational bills and growing their profitability.
Are these incentives really essential? Indonesian nickel ore is low-grade laterite nickel ore, containing lower than 1.8 p.c nickel. Because of this processing 100 kilograms of ore yields just one.8 kilograms of NPI; some cobalt and different byproducts are extracted, however the majority turns into waste. Given these situations, finding processing amenities close to nickel mines, quite than in a foreign country, is already a cost-efficient technique of minimizing logistics bills.
Clearly, not all the present incentives are essential. A Jakarta-based banker I interviewed defined: “The partial nickel ore ban earlier than 2020 (the place ore export permits had been granted to corporations making progress on smelter growth) and securing permits inside industrial parks was really ample for nickel processing corporations to put money into Indonesia.”
Beneath the present coverage, Indonesia has borne the price of misplaced tax royalties from nickel ore exports as a result of export ban, to not point out the tax holidays supplied to processors. In the meantime, its miners, who’re largely Indonesian-owned as a result of nation’s nationalistic method to mining possession, are pressured to promote their ore at low government-regulated costs. The paradox is that this nationalism applies solely to mining, not processing, the place Chinese language corporations dominate.
Because of uncompetitive pricing, Indonesian miners have little incentive to discover or open new mines. Shockingly, regardless of holding 42 p.c of the world’s nickel reserves, Indonesia since last year has been importing nickel ore from the Philippines. The very incentives benefiting Chinese language processing corporations have turn out to be disincentives for Indonesian miners, undermining the long-term sustainability of the sector.
Who Are the Beneficiaries?
The Indonesian authorities’s incentives have led to artificially low costs for processed NPI and MHP, making Indonesian nickel processing among the many world’s most cost-effective. Whereas this advantages processors, the largest winners are Chinese language factories, the place most exports go. As talked about, NPI and ferronickel are essential for metal manufacturing, whereas MHP is essential for EV batteries.
Nickel stays the federal government’s prime industrial precedence, but fiscal constraints restrict assist for technology-driven sectors, corresponding to EV battery manufacturing and home metal manufacturing.
Regardless of the federal government’s robust push for value-added nickel processing, actual progress is missing. BYD’s $1 billion funding in an EV meeting in Indonesia, which depends on LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries – a non-nickel different that’s rising as a viable different to nickel-based EV batteries – instantly contradicts the federal government’s nickel-driven EV technique, elevating doubts about its effectiveness.
China and world EV producers understand dangers in nickel-based EV batteries, primarily as a result of the rapid expansion of LFP battery manufacturing and use. This shift raises issues, notably given the excessive funding prices of MHP manufacturing, which usually vary between $1.5 billion and $2 billion.
In June of final yr, a consortium of Eramet, a French mining firm, and BASF, a German chemical firm, canceled its planned investment in Weda Bay, an industrial park in jap Indonesia managed by Tsingshan Group. An Indonesian authorities supply from Jakarta said, “One of many causes is that each corporations see an oversupply of MHP crops, whereas demand potential is weakening as a result of rise of LFP batteries.”
China will wait and assess MHP’s potential towards LFP whereas persevering with to prioritize NPI and ferronickel in Indonesia, which stays way more profitable for its metal trade.
What’s Subsequent For Indonesia?
Nickel-based EVs and Indonesia’s huge nickel assets nonetheless maintain potential, however the advantages largely favor Chinese language buyers, who, like different buyers, strategically maximize the advantages they obtain from authorities incentives. The difficulty lies not with China however with Indonesia’s coverage route – whether or not its fiscal and non-fiscal incentives really assist industrialization or replicate misaligned priorities.
Indonesia may study from Vietnam, a resource-scarce nation that has efficiently developed technology-driven industries. VinFast, Vietnam’s EV producer, has gained world recognition, and Xanh SM Green, a Vietnamese taxi firm, has even launched operations in Jakarta utilizing VinFast EVs – a transparent signal of Vietnam’s efficient tech-focused technique. Merely having giant nickel reserves doesn’t assure success in EV battery manufacturing, whether or not nickel-based or LFP, as these industries require distinct experience and coverage frameworks.
