American drivers got their first real piece of good news in months this week: crude oil recorded its biggest one-month drop in six years in May, and gasoline futures fell to $3.03 per gallon — a level not seen since before the Iran war sent pump prices soaring to four-year highs.
But before you celebrate at the pump, energy experts are urging caution. The road back to affordable gas is longer and more complicated than a single headline suggests.
The price relief traces directly to the US-Iran ceasefire and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that normally carries roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, or about 20 million barrels per day. When the war started in late February, vessel traffic through the strait ground to a near standstill, strangling global supply and sending oil above $114 per barrel at its peak. The average price of gas fell 17 cents since its peak earlier this month, but it is still 47% higher than it was at the start of the Iran war.
What experts are saying about the timeline
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan has been among the most closely-watched voices throughout the crisis. De Haan predicted the national average could fall to $3.65–$3.85 per gallon within one to two weeks if the situation holds, and said there is “enough room to make a run at falling back below the $4 gallon mark.” That would represent meaningful relief for the average American household, which has been spending roughly $90 or more per fill-up this spring.
But others are less optimistic. Newsweek reported that GasBuddy warned oil prices may not fall below $70 per barrel until 2028, delaying any meaningful long-term relief for US drivers. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett argued the opposite — telling Fox Business that pent-up supply in the Gulf means energy prices “are going to plummet like nothing you’ve ever seen before” once tanker traffic fully resumes. The outlook remains deeply divided.
Where prices stand right now, state by state
Not all Americans are feeling the pain equally. California remains the most expensive state at $6.15 per gallon, followed by Washington at $5.77 and Hawaii at $5.64. Oklahoma has the lowest average at $3.94, ahead of Mississippi at $3.98 and Louisiana at $4.00. The national average as of late May sits at approximately $4.45 per gallon — compared to $3.17 this time last year, a gap of $1.38 that has cost the average driver hundreds of dollars since the conflict began.
The biggest wild card remains the durability of the ceasefire itself. Roughly 2,000 ships and an estimated 20,000 sailors remain stuck in and around the strait, and Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to suspend safe passage over Israeli actions in Lebanon. A re-escalation could reverse every cent of the gains at the pump within days.
What drivers can do right now
NBC News confirmed that ING market strategist Francesco Pesole summed up the uncertainty bluntly: “The question now is whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon or the extended ceasefire will only lead to another prolonged stalemate.” Until that question is answered, drivers remain hostage to geopolitical headlines.
AAA’s TripTik planner shows real-time gas prices along any route, and apps like GasBuddy allow drivers to find the cheapest station within a set radius. For those driving high-mileage vehicles, even a five-cent difference per gallon across a 15-gallon fill-up adds up to hundreds of dollars a year. The savings are real — but so is the uncertainty. Monitor prices weekly, and don’t assume the worst is over until tankers are moving freely and consistently through the Hormuz Strait again.
