Saturday afternoon’s SoFi Stadium showdown between the Houston Texans (10-5) and the Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) possesses plenty of postseason implications.
The Texans can return to the playoffs for the third consecutive season through two paths: defeating the Chargers or by the Indianapolis Colts losing versus the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. An AFC West title is still on the table for the Chargers, who can knock off the Broncos in Week 18 by winning against the Texans on Saturday before facing the Denver Broncos in their final regular-season game.
This matchup stars two of the hottest teams in the NFL with Houston winning 10 of the last 12 games and Los Angeles ripping off a string of seven victories in the last eight games. The outcome will be determined by which offense can prevail against either the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense (the Texans, who are allowing 16.6 points per game) or the NFL’s No. 8 scoring defense (the Chargers, who are allowing 20.1 points per game).
Where to watch Texans vs. Chargers
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 27 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
- TV: NFL Network | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Chargers -1.5, O/U 39.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Texans vs. Chargers: Need to know
Can Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert evade the Texans’ pass rush?
The Texans are the NFL’s best scoring defense (16.6 points per game allowed) and total defense (272.3 total yards per game allowed in 2025, and the last time they faced the Los Angeles Chargers, they threw quarterback Justin Herbert in a locker. Back in the 2024 AFC wild card round, the Texans coerced Herbert into four interceptions, and they sacked him four times in a 32-12 blowout loss. Herbert threw more interceptions than he did in the entire 2024 regular season (three).
This season with injuries to both starting tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, the Chargers quarterback has remained under siege: Herbert is being pressured on 42.4% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL. That’s bad news facing Pro Bowl edge rusher Danielle Hunter, whose 9.0 sacks during Houston’s seven-game winning streak are the second-most in the league in that span behind only NFL sacks leader Myles Garrett’s 12.0 in that stretch. Hunter’s 13.0 sacks overall this season are tied with Chargers edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu for the third-most in the league. Just behind him is teammate Will Anderson Jr.’s 11.5 sacks, tied for the seventh-most in football.
Herbert will have his hands full against the best pass rush duo in football.
How will Texans QB C.J. Stroud handle Chargers’ zone defense?
Much of Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud’s success this season has come against man coverage: he has completed 63.6% of his passes vs. man, the third-highest rate entering Week 17, with an average yards per pass attempt of 7.4, the eighth-most in the NFL entering Week 17. Stroud has thrown the most touchdowns without an interception, 13, against man coverage this season.
However, he’s been significantly worse against zone coverage this season: his 66.3% completion rate against zone is the ninth-lowest in the league entering Week 17 with only three touchdowns and all six of his interceptions. The Chargers run zone on 82.9% of their defensive plays, the second-highest rate in football. Los Angeles’ 17 interceptions as a team are tied for the third-most in the NFL with the Texans, and 14 of them have come in zone coverage.
Chargers rookie RB Omarion Hampton could be X factor
One way to slow down an opposing pass rush is a strong running game, and the return of Hampton from an early-season ankle injury could be the difference for Herbert and the Chargers in this matchup against the Texans. Hampton has forced a missed tackle on 32.7% of his carries, the highest rate in the NFL and the only figure above 30% among running backs with at least 100 carries, per NFL Pro.
Texans vs. Chargers prediction, pick
Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston rediscovered his TCU form (104 yards and a touchdown on four catches) in Week 16 in a 34-17 domination of the Dallas Cowboys. Hampton seems to be operating at full tilt after an efficient 85 yards rushing and a touchdown on 16 carries — 5.3 yards per carry — last week. The Texans’ defense will have to respect Hampton, which will allow Herbert to have he wasn’t able to against Houston a year ago when dropping back to pass, particularly on play-action. That will lead to the Chargers exacting revenge for their postseason disappointment last year.
Pick: Chargers 24, Texans 20 | (Los Angeles -1.5, Over 39.5)
