Bangladesh’s international coverage is shifting. With the current political change at house and an more and more risky international order, Bangladesh is adopting a “trying east” coverage. For speedy financial progress, regional connectivity, and strategic diversification, the nation has been hoping to join the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The query is now not whether or not Bangladesh is prepared to affix ASEAN, however whether or not it’s prepared and likewise whether or not ASEAN is ready to embrace its South Asian neighbor.
Certainly, the stakes are excessive. ASEAN has a market of over 680 million individuals, with a mixed GDP exceeding $4.5 trillion – the world largest regional group exterior Europe. The bloc acts as a buffer amid great power rivalries, and it has already confirmed its capability to speed up financial transformation and sturdy regional cooperation. ASEAN presents a well timed and strategic alternative for a rustic like Bangladesh, which, having simply achieved its second liberation from authoritarian rule, is grappling with financial uncertainty and navigating strained ties with its conventional companions.
The Financial Case for Membership
ASEAN can provide another progress horizon for Bangladesh. Greater than 85 % of Bangladesh’s exports are reliant on the ready-made garments sector, which is targeting Europe and North America.
Nonetheless, the world is altering. Within the rising multipolar worldwide order, given the nation’s financial progress, Bangladesh will lose preferential commerce entry to those markets, decreasing its exports by 7 to 14 %. A pivot to ASEAN, therefore, isn’t just fascinating however crucial.
ASEAN’s 10 member states have already remodeled their financial buildings by liberalizing commerce, investing in expertise, and integrating into international provide chains. For instance, Vietnam has turn into a manufacturing hub for electronics and a prime vacation spot for international direct funding due to its lively participation in ASEAN and the Regional Complete Financial Partnership (RCEP).
Certainly, Bangladesh has comparable aspirations. Its pharmaceutical, ICT, and agro-processing industries are entered a stage of maturity, however with out regional integration, these sectors are struggling to scale.
ASEAN membership would offer Bangladesh responsibility free entry to this huge regional market, diversified commerce companions, and the capability to barter as part of the bloc – multilaterally reasonably than bilaterally. Becoming a member of RCEP, of which all ASEAN states are members, may increase exports of Bangladesh by 17 % and its GDP by 0.26 %, as per the report of Bangladesh Commerce and Tariff Fee.
Strategic Connectivity and Geopolitical Leverage
Geographically, Bangladesh is positioned on the intersection of South and Southeast Asia with an enormous entry to the Bay of Bengal. Due to this fact, Bangladesh can function a essential bridge connecting ASEAN to the Indian subcontinent. Infrastructure initiatives such because the Matarbari deep-sea port and the Asian Freeway Community might rework the nation right into a logistics hub, enhancing regional connectivity and sinking ASEAN’s dependency on slender maritime chokepoints.
Not solely that, however membership would offer Bangladesh with larger geopolitical leverage, for the reason that nation seeks to maneuver past an India-centric technique and handle its rising dependence on China. ASEAN would offer a balanced platform for partaking with a number of regional powers, together with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, by way of ASEAN-led efforts: the East Asia Summit and ASEAN+3.
ASEAN has successfully promoted its “centrality” throughout an period of rising U.S.-China rivalry, sustaining its autonomy whereas controlling for exterior pressures. Bangladesh can enhance its international coverage choices, negotiate higher commerce agreements, and attract very important investments in vitality and infrastructure by adopting this diplomatic stance.
A Youthful Workforce and Demographic Dividend
Bangladesh’s biggest asset is its demographic dividend, with over 65 percent of its inhabitants below the age of 35. ASEAN may gain advantage from this younger and dynamic labor pool. Underneath ASEAN frameworks, labor mobility agreements might provide good employment alternatives for Bangladeshi staff in myriad sectors together with agriculture, building, care providers, and ICT.
In contrast, Bangladesh can be taught from ASEAN members’ experiences in vocational coaching, upskilling, automation, thereby making ready its workforce for the way forward for work. Shared progress will be achieved by way of deeper collaboration in training, digital providers, and start-up ecosystems.
The Rohingya Disaster: A Thorny Hurdle
Even with the sturdy case for integration, a number of hurdles stay. The unsolved Rohingya challenge is probably the most essential. Bangladesh has lengthy referred to as for worldwide stress on Myanmar to repatriate the greater than 1 million refugees who’ve been sheltering in Cox’s Bazar since 2017. Nonetheless, Myanmar’s membership within the bloc and ASEAN’s consensus-based structure makes any vital motion difficult.
ASEAN’s function has been restricted to humanitarian efforts, falling in need of addressing root causes. Bangladesh’s accession could possibly be halted by Myanmar, making a diplomatic impasse. Alternatively, nearer engagement with empathetic ASEAN members — Indonesia and Malaysia, each of whom have supported the Bangladesh’s place on the Rohingya challenge – might ultimately provoke stronger regional help.
The Worry of Uneven Competitors
With the benefits, there are dangers. Coming into ASEAN’s free commerce framework may expose Bangladesh’s nascent industries – electronics, prescription drugs, and lightweight engineering – to competitors from extra superior economies like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Though this concern is legitimate, the answer lies not in retreat however in preparation.
Bangladesh ought to spend money on innovation, analysis and growth (R&D), and value-added manufacturing. In lieu of fearing competitors, it ought to view ASEAN membership as a catalyst for industrial upgrading and coverage reform. Bangladesh can progressively improve its capabilities with correct safeguards and sensible commerce methods.
A Step Ahead, Not a Silver Bullet
Bangladesh’s aspiration to affix ASEAN will not be a silver bullet for its geopolitical and financial challenges, however it’s a strategic step in the correct route. As chief adviser of Bangladesh’s interim authorities, Dr. Muhammad Yunus, noted throughout his visits to Jakarta, and Kuala Lumpur, “Bangladesh generally is a bridge between ASEAN and SAARC.”
For ASEAN, bringing in Bangladesh would signify a daring extension of its regional imaginative and prescient. It could join two of Asia’s most populous and promising sub-regions, whereas for Bangladesh, it could mark a milestone in its arduous journey from aid-dependence to strategic autonomy.
The very fact stays that ambition alone will not be satisfactory. The brand new Bangladesh, below the interim authorities led by Yunus, should present it is able to reform, prepared to guide and able to contribute – not merely to eat – the advantages of regional cooperation.
