Investor enthusiasm over the prospects of artificial intelligence are expected to drive Big Tech stocks in particular this year — but Wall Street also expects gains in other sectors.
Over the past two weeks, Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Staples (XLP) have outperformed the broader market, with all of those sectors up 5.5% or more.
Even the small-cap Russell 2000 (^RUT) index has risen 8% since the start of the year, outperforming the S&P 500 (^GSPC), which is up more than 1% during the same period.
“It’s a broadening playbook,” Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus told Yahoo Finance on Friday.
Stoltzfus’ price target for the S&P 500 this year is the most bullish on Wall Street at 8,100, with other analysts expecting double-digit percentage gains taking the benchmark index toward 7,500 or 7,600.
“What we’re seeing is a rotation, and it’s not necessarily away from technology, as we would think,” he added. “It’s some profit taking to broaden one’s exposure and diversification.”
Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, agrees. His firm’s strategy has been to go Overweight on industrials, while also upgrading healthcare and energy stocks.
“I wouldn’t get rid of the tech at this point. I think there are more opportunities beyond tech, is the way I would think about it,” Lerner said.
Strategists are optimistic given what they’ve seen with earnings, which kicked off last week.
Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) showed one of the strongest years for the investment banking business since the pandemic, sending shares of those firms higher.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s (TSM) strong results also gave a lift to semiconductor stocks and fueled optimism that the AI cycle is only accelerating
Shares of memory chipmaker Micron (MU) and equipment makers ASML (ASML) and Applied Materials (AMAT) are all up at least 25% year-to-date.
Performance in the AI chip space so far underscores that artificial intelligence and tech are expected to lead the market again this year as wider adoption across enterprises takes hold.
“As we wait for that to unfold, I think tech, especially big tech and AI as a theme, is the core of this market,” Barclays head of US equity strategy Venu Krishna said. “Our core conviction is that it’ll sustain this year, even though the level of scrutiny around that [AI] has decidedly increased.”
The test will be whether software stocks, facing disruption from artificial intelligence, can find their footing. Names like Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce (CRM), and ServiceNow (NOW) have all fallen since the start of the year as investors weigh AI’s impact.
