The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Monday closed down -0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.36%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.28%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) fell -0.40%.
Inventory indexes on Monday gave up an early advance and settled decrease. Place squaring and lengthy liquidation pressures forward of this week’s US inflation experiences on July CPI and PPI weighed on shares Monday.
Shares on Monday initially moved increased, with the S&P 500 posting a 1-week excessive and the Nasdaq 10 posting a brand new document excessive. Current dovish Fed feedback have bolstered the outlook for Fed fee cuts sooner relatively than later and are supportive of shares. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated she helps an rate of interest reduce on the September FOMC assembly and that she favors three rate of interest cuts this 12 months. Shares additionally garnered help Monday when CNBC reported that President Trump is extending the tariff truce with China, which was to run out on Tuesday, for an additional 90 days.
Shares had been additionally underneath strain as hopes dim for an imminent finish to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. President Trump on Monday downplayed expectations of a breakthrough to finish the conflict in Ukraine when he meets with Russian President Putin this Friday in Alaska, saying the summit is a “feel-out assembly” to finish the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, feedback from Ukrainian President Zelenskiy dampened hopes for a fast finish to the conflict when he rejected any discuss of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia.
Shares are seeing help from hypothesis that current weaker-than-expected US financial information and dovish Fed commentary will push the Fed to decrease rates of interest as quickly as subsequent month. On Saturday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated she helps chopping rates of interest on the FOMC’s subsequent assembly in September and that she favors three fee cuts this 12 months to “assist keep away from an additional pointless erosion in labor market situations and scale back the possibility that the committee might want to implement a bigger coverage correction ought to the labor market deteriorate additional.” The probabilities of a Fed fee reduce on the September FOMC assembly rose to 88% from 40% earlier this month.
The worth of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rose greater than +1% Monday to a 4-week excessive, boosted by sturdy demand from institutional traders and company consumers, that are serving to to elevate the whole cryptocurrency market. In accordance with information from Coingecko, digital-asset treasury corporations, listed automobiles that accumulate cryptocurrencies, have amassed a Bitcoin stockpile value $113 billion to date.
In current tariff information, CNBC on Monday reported that President Trump will prolong the tariff truce with China, which was to run out on Tuesday, for an additional 90 days. Final Wednesday, President Trump introduced that he’ll impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports. Nonetheless, corporations can be eligible for exemptions in the event that they display a dedication to constructing their merchandise within the US. Nevertheless, the US will levy a separate tax on imports of digital merchandise that make use of semiconductors. Additionally, President Trump introduced final Wednesday that he’ll double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the present 25% tariff, resulting from India’s purchases of Russian oil. Final Tuesday, Mr. Trump stated that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports can be introduced “inside the subsequent week or so.” In accordance with Bloomberg Economics, the common US tariff will rise to fifteen.2% if charges are carried out as introduced, up from 13.3% earlier, and considerably increased than the two.3% in 2024 earlier than the tariffs had been introduced.
The market’s focus this week might be on company earnings outcomes and any new commerce or tariff information. On Tuesday, the July US CPI is predicted to edge as much as +2.8% y/y from +2.7% y/y in June, and the July CPI ex-food and vitality is predicted to climb +3.0% y/y from +2.9% y/y in June. On Thursday, weekly preliminary unemployment claims are anticipated to fall by -1,000 to 225,000. Additionally on Thursday, the July final-demand PPI is predicted to extend to +2.5% y/y from +2.3% y/y in June, and the July PPI ex-food and vitality is predicted to rise to +2.9% y/y from +2.6% y/y in June. On Friday, July US retail gross sales are anticipated to climb +0.5% m/m and retail gross sales ex-autos are anticipated to rise +0.3% m/m. Additionally on Friday, July manufacturing manufacturing is predicted to stay unchanged m/m. Lastly, the College of Michigan’s Aug US shopper sentiment index is predicted to climb by +0.3 to 62.0.
Federal funds futures costs are discounting the probabilities for a -25 bp fee reduce at 88% on the September 16-17 FOMC assembly and 62% on the following assembly on October 28-29.
Earnings experiences point out that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on monitor to rise +9.1% y/y, significantly better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and essentially the most in 4 years, in line with Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 82% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of corporations exceeded revenue estimates.
Abroad inventory markets on Monday settled blended. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 1-week excessive and closed down -0.30%. China’s Shanghai Composite rallied to a 10-month excessive and closed up +0.34%. Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 was closed as we speak for the Mountain Day vacation.
Curiosity Charges
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Monday closed up +2 ticks. The ten-year T-note yield fell -0.4 bp to 4.279%. T-notes posted modest positive aspects on Monday on mounting hypothesis that the Fed might quickly reduce rates of interest after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated she helps an rate of interest reduce on the September FOMC assembly and that she favors three rate of interest cuts this 12 months. T-notes even have carryover help from final Thursday, when President Trump nominated Stephen Miran for Fed Governor to interchange Adriana Kugler for the remainder of the 12 months. Miran views President Trump’s insurance policies as disinflationary and would help a extra dovish Fed coverage.
European authorities bond yields on Monday settled blended. The ten-year German bund yield rose by +0.6 bp to 2.696%. The ten-year UK gilt yield fell -3.6 bp to 4.565%.
Swaps are discounting the probabilities at 6% for a -25 bp fee reduce by the ECB on the September 11 coverage assembly.
US Inventory Movers
Monday.com (MNDY) closed down greater than -29% on progress issues after it failed to spice up its full-year income steering from the present estimate of $1.22 billion to $1.23 billion.
C3.ai (AI) closed down greater than -25% after DA Davidson downgraded the inventory to underperform from impartial with a worth goal of $13, citing preliminary earnings outcomes that had been “considerably beneath steering.”
AAON Inc. (AAON) closed down greater than -10% after reporting Q2 EPS of 19 cents, nicely beneath the consensus of 32 cents.
Upstart Holdings (UPST) closed down greater than -7% after asserting it’ll provide $500 million of convertible senior notes due in 2032 in a personal providing.
Atlassian Corp (TEAM) closed down greater than -5% as analysts have reduce their worth targets for the inventory by a median of 11% because it posted earnings final Thursday.
Hershey (HSY) closed down greater than -4% to guide chocolate makers decrease on demand issues after cocoa costs jumped greater than +2% to a 6-week excessive.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) closed down greater than -3% after paying $7.7 billion to amass the unique rights to indicate all occasions from the Final Preventing Championship within the US over the subsequent seven years.
TKO Group Holdings (TKO) closed up greater than +10% to guide gainers within the S&P 500 after Paramount Skydance acquired the rights to indicate all occasions from the Final Preventing Championship within the US over the subsequent seven years for $7.7 billion.
Elf Magnificence (ELF) closed up greater than +10% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the inventory to obese from equal weight with a worth goal of $134.
Digital Arts (EA) closed up greater than +5% to guide gainers within the Nasdaq 100 after it efficiently examined a beta launch for its Battlefield 6 online game.
Cryptocurrency-linked shares moved increased on Monday after the worth of Bitcoin rose by greater than +1% to a 4-week excessive. Because of this, Coinbase World (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and MARA Holdings (MARA) closed up greater than +1%.
Sapiens Worldwide Corp NV (SPNS) closed up greater than +8% after Calcalist reported that Components Techniques is in superior talks to promote management of the corporate for about $2 billion.
Albemarle (ALB) closed up +7% after operations had been halted at a serious Chinese language mine, spurring hypothesis that the Chinese language authorities may transfer to droop different lithium tasks to deal with overcapacity issues.
Micron Know-how (MU) closed up greater than +4% after elevating its fiscal This fall gross sales estimate to $11.2 billion, plus or minus $100 million, from a earlier estimate of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million.
Kratos Protection & Safety Options (KTOS) closed up greater than +2% after Canaccord Genuity initiated protection on the inventory with a advice of purchase and a worth goal of $74.
Earnings Studies (8/12/2025)
Cardinal Well being Inc (CAH), Cava Group Inc (CAVA), Everus Building Group Inc (ECG), H&R Block Inc (HRB), Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE), Madison Sq. Backyard Sports activities C (MSGS), On Holding AG (ONON), Smithfield Meals Inc (SFD).
On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both instantly or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and information on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially revealed on Barchart.com
