NFL execs on Super Bowl favorites, plus Broncos woes and a Giants-Vikings predicament: Sando’s Pick Six

Cowl 7 | Monday A each day NFL vacation spot that gives in-depth evaluation of soccer’s greatest tales. Every Monday, Mike Sando breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.

The San Francisco 49ers entered Week 6 using a 15-game successful streak and searching unstoppable with a younger quarterback, Brock Purdy, who was making the sport look simple. They exited with a 19-17 defeat at Cleveland, accidents to key gamers and, for the primary time this season, a query mark or two.

With the beforehand unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles additionally shedding ugly Sunday, this version of the Choose Six column addresses key questions going through Tremendous Bowl favorites with one-third of the 18-week common season almost full.

To date this season, we’ve seen the Miami Dolphins set NFL information for offense, solely to lose by 4 touchdowns of their lone sport in opposition to a real contender. We’ve seen the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs win with protection, typically despite their offense. We’ve seen the Buffalo Payments incur devastating accidents. Right here we’ll deal with 10 groups with the shortest Tremendous Bowl odds, operating by means of what I feel and what NFL insiders should say.

The complete Choose Six menu this week:

• Unanswered questions for contenders
• When “taking part in to win” goes too far
• Championship roster, rookie kicker
• Do they make wristbands for coaches?
• Giants, Vikings and successful too quickly
• Two-minute drill: Wackiest win shortly

1. The place do the highest 10 present Tremendous Bowl contenders stand one-third of the way in which by means of the season? Let’s hit key questions going through the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Payments, Bengals, Cowboys, Ravens, Lions, Dolphins and Jaguars.

You possibly can scroll by means of the newest Tremendous Bowl future odds from BetMGM under.

• San Francisco 49ers: What have they got in Purdy?

What I feel: Let’s begin with what the 49ers would not have in Purdy. They don’t have an AFC North-certified, weatherproof Ben Roethlisberger clone capable of overpower the weather, break free from defensive linemen and thrive within the circumstances Purdy confronted in opposition to Cleveland. What they do have is an efficient, younger quarterback well-suited to run Kyle Shanahan’s offense at a excessive degree by making fast choices when given time to seek out open receivers.

Exec remark: “The 49ers knew they wanted a great quarterback to win the Tremendous Bowl, they usually knew they may assist Purdy be that. Give him a terrific receiving tight finish, two good receivers and a terrific halfback who suits the system, they usually’ll get somebody open on each move play. However then Deebo Samuel will get harm, Christian McCaffrey will get harm, and now we don’t have as many guys open. Particularly if you face a defensive coordinator who says, ‘You present me you may beat me throwing the ball outdoors the numbers — better of luck, and to try this, you will should take a five-step drop and I’m going to have Myles Garrett chasing you each play.’”

• Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: Is the explosive passing sport gone for good?

What I feel: The Chiefs have by no means scored much less per sport on offense by means of six video games or a full season since Patrick Mahomes grew to become their quarterback. They’ve additionally by no means loved bigger common level differentials (9.8 per sport), as a result of their protection is so significantly better. I feel the move offense will develop into barely extra explosive as Mahomes will get reps along with his receivers, however I’m not anticipating an enormous shift.

The Chiefs are averaging 9.5 performs per landing drive when beginning at the least 70 yards from the opponent’s purpose line, per TruMedia. That determine was 7.8 in Mahomes’ first 12 months because the starter and has climbed each season since. It’s a testomony to the Chiefs’ adaptability, but additionally a mirrored image of plummeting explosive play charges.

Exec remark: “Yeah, it appears more durable for them on offense till Mahomes finds (Travis) Kelce on each main third down, each main two-minute play, each main landing. Kansas Metropolis has the luxurious of their finest gamers being their hardest gamers. Chris Jones is a really robust participant. Kelce is a really robust participant. Mahomes is a really robust participant. You surprise why they win the video games? As a result of the video games are gained by the hardest groups more often than not.”

• Philadelphia Eagles: Has Jalen Hurts regressed? The place are the explosive move performs?

What I feel: Explosive passing is down by means of many of the league, together with for the Eagles. They’re gaining greater than 15 yards on simply 11 % of move performs, down from 21 % by means of six video games final season and 19 % for 2022 total. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are nonetheless on the group, so I’m inclined to belief the manufacturing will return. However there’s additionally a lingering worry defenses have caught as much as points of the Eagles’ scheme. Does Philly have a counterpunch?

Exec remark: “Persons are going to crush Hurts and the offense. They’re simply churning the clock a lot. It simply appears like they’re imposing their will on groups by means of the run sport and thru their quick passing and it simply hasn’t taken off from an explosive passing standpoint, so once they play a group that may transfer the ball on them by means of the air, it presents some challenges.”

• Buffalo Payments: Are the defensive accidents an excessive amount of to beat?

What I feel: The remainder of the convention is the important thing variable. The Payments are diminished. They’ve imperfections. However Buffalo already defeated the Dolphins. The opposite AFC groups aren’t precisely peaking. Kansas Metropolis and Cincinnati seem simpler to defend this season than within the latest previous. We’ll see how properly the Dolphins maintain up. This may nonetheless be Buffalo’s season.

Exec remark: “Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, these are big accidents for that soccer group. The Payments should not as dominant as they felt going into it with so many accidents on protection. However the division they’re in, they’ll nonetheless be capable of slug it out and get to the place they should go. No person has actually emerged within the AFC to unseat these groups on the prime.”

• Miami Dolphins: Has Tua Tagovailoa confirmed he’s constructed to final?

What I feel: It was robust watching Tagovailoa final season with out worrying for his bodily well-being. I’ve by no means felt that method watching him to this point this season, and can really feel even higher if he performs a full sport in opposition to Philadelphia in Week 7. New England, Kansas Metropolis, the Jets (twice), Washington, Tennessee, Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo will all get their photographs at Tagovailoa. I’m cautiously optimistic, however assume there shall be video games when protection muddy the image sufficiently to create turnovers.

Exec remark: “Attention-grabbing group. They put up 70 on Denver and may have put up 70 on the Giants. Nobody can sustain with that form of firepower. However in addition they haven’t actually overwhelmed anybody. They had been down 14 factors to Carolina. Do you assume they’re getting back from 13 down in opposition to Philly? In my view, no.”

• Dallas Cowboys: Is that this group any higher than earlier Dallas groups that fell quick?

What I feel: It’s a troublesome time to judge the Cowboys pretty as a result of they had been so unhealthy in opposition to San Francisco on an enormous stage of their most up-to-date sport. I simply don’t see the place Dallas is best or going to get significantly higher, particularly on offense. And each time they get pleasure from success, they appear to get pleasure from it slightly an excessive amount of. That may be a reflection of their proprietor.

Exec remark: “Run protection and consistency on protection, after which offensively, what’s their identification? They only should not superb. Their finest video games are once they play nice protection and get turnovers, however that’s not going to occur sufficient, particularly in opposition to the great groups.”

• Detroit Lions: Have they fastened their protection?

What I feel: The Lions are 11.3 EPA per sport higher on protection from final season to this season, the second-largest achieve for any group since final season. The schedule has one thing to do with that, however the 2022 protection was so unhealthy, it couldn’t cease Carolina. Detroit will win the NFC North and return to the playoffs, which can make this season profitable it doesn’t matter what occurs from there. However we gained’t discover out till the postseason simply how significantly better the protection could be, as a result of the remaining schedule options so many weak offenses. That features Chicago twice, Inexperienced Bay, Denver and Las Vegas.

Exec remark: “Sure, I do purchase them. This can be a league stuffed with groups who do probably not know who they’re week to week. Detroit is aware of who they’re, they usually play to their identification. Anytime who you might be and play to that type, you might have an opportunity to be harmful.”

• Baltimore Ravens: Are the Ravens higher off shifting to extra of a pass-oriented offense?

What I feel: Baltimore has by no means scored fewer factors or amassed much less offensive EPA by means of the primary six video games of a season with Lamar Jackson within the lineup. The schedule and accidents have performed roles, however with the Ravens shifting towards a extra standard move offense, are the explosive quarterback runs principally prior to now? Jackson has one rush longer than 20 yards (he’s had 4 or 5 by now beforehand). He’s gaining at the least eight yards on 15 % of carries, half his earlier price. I’m not anticipating a constant precision passing sport to out of the blue materialize. Will this new offense be more durable to defend?

Exec remark: “The protection retains them in it, however I don’t essentially assume this offensive change goes to make them any higher when it counts. Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem as dynamic as a runner, however on this offense, he doesn’t have to be. He’s regulated to move from the pocket, however you’re taking away the largest weapon the offense had if you try this. Odell (Beckham) isn’t that man anymore. Who’re you actually afraid of on that offense? No person however Lamar, and in case you are not utilizing Lamar in a sure capability, he turns into identical to the remainder of these quarterbacks across the league — hit and miss.”

• Jacksonville Jaguars: Are they prepared for prime time?

What I feel: Trevor Lawrence’s knee damage was the large concern popping out of Sunday. If he’s out, expectations shift dramatically. Greater than the opposite AFC contenders, the Jaguars appear early of their life cycle, nonetheless discovering their method. That makes them slightly more durable to belief in huge spots but additionally leaves better house for progress. Let’s hope these take a look at outcomes on Lawrence’s knee come again clear.

Exec remark: “I like Jacksonville. Doug (Pederson) has a championship pedigree. This group is comparatively younger. They’re scrappy. The truth that they’ve been there earlier than provides them an opportunity. I feel the quarterback is rising.”

• Cincinnati Bengals: Can Joe Burrow maintain up for a full season?

What I feel: Burrow is trying more healthy over the previous two weeks. The bye week comes at a good time for Burrow to get even more healthy, however take a look at the schedule on the opposite aspect: San Francisco, Buffalo, Houston, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. Cincy nonetheless has a second sport with the Steelers, plus video games in opposition to Kansas Metropolis and Cleveland. I’m nervous Burrow will put on down in opposition to these defenses.

Exec remark: “You can not at all times anticipate Joe Burrow to create magic with a bottom-half offensive line. The road is my concern all the way in which.”

2. Are groups typically going too far taking part in to win? The Eagles come to thoughts after falling 20-14 to the Jets.

Most would agree groups have gotten smarter of their dealing with of fourth-down conditions, going for it when it is sensible, as a substitute of punting nearly out of behavior. Making the aggressive play to win can completely be the sensible play, no matter outcomes. It’s progress when groups severely wrestle with these questions, not simply on fourth down, however in all points of their technique.

However when the Eagles tossed a killer interception on third-and-9 from their very own 46-yard line whereas defending a 14-12 lead in opposition to the Jets with two minutes left within the fourth quarter, a longtime NFL exec reached out with a query: “Have we come too far with coaches eager to ‘win’ the sport as a substitute of typically being extra conventional?”

His level: Philadelphia may have run the ball on third-and-9, then punted from round midfield. The Jets would have taken possession with barely greater than a minute remaining, no timeouts and Zach Wilson behind middle going through a ferocious Eagles move rush. Was having Hurts move in a scenario when gaining a primary down is unlikely the sensible play below the circumstances?

“Are coaches not keen to go in opposition to the slight statistical profit that WPA (win chance added) supplies?” the exec requested. “Is it not OK to let your protection win the sport when it clearly has an enormous expertise/efficiency benefit? This Eagles sport was 14-12, not 37-35.”

Critics attuned to the development towards aggressiveness pounce when groups move up possibilities to go for the kill. Coaches know group house owners are typically followers, not soccer strategists. They know house owners pay attention to those criticisms. That may present an incentive to make the aggressive play, to go down swinging.

“All people thinks they’re taking part in Brady, Manning or Rodgers in two-minute,” a veteran coach mentioned. “If earlier than the sport somebody supplied Philly to place its protection in opposition to Zach Wilson on a need-field-goal drive beginning inside his personal 15 with no timeouts and a minute left, you assume they’d have taken it?”

Within the scenario Sunday, the Jets’ offense had netted 19 yards on its earlier three possessions, producing one discipline purpose on a drive that gained 16 of these yards. The Eagles had already suffered three turnovers. They knew Wilson can be taking on deep in his territory with little or no time remaining.

“To me, these are precisely the kind of elements {that a} coach wants to think about when deciding,” the exec mentioned. “I feel they had been ignored right here.”

The scenario Philly confronted in opposition to the Jets was the seventh time since 2000 {that a} group main by 1-2 factors within the closing two minutes confronted third down with 7-10 yards to go from the minus-40 yard line to midfield, with the opponent holding no timeouts.

Three of the seven groups handed, leading to one first down, one sack and Hurts’ interception. Of those three groups, solely the Eagles misplaced the sport.

3. The 49ers misplaced Sunday when their rookie kicker missed from 41 yards. Is San Francisco smart trusting a championship roster to a rookie’s foot come playoff time?

The 49ers raised eyebrows amongst some once they used their second-highest decide within the 2023 draft — a third-round selection, 99th total — for a kicker. The number of Michigan’s Jake Moody gave the 49ers a cheap successor to veteran Robbie Gould. Normal supervisor John Lynch known as Moody a probably “foundational” participant whose inventory within the draft was so excessive, different groups had been making an attempt to commerce forward of San Francisco for a shot at him.

Who would you like lining up the potential successful kick in a Tremendous Bowl? It’s an attention-grabbing query in a season that has seen Moody and Saints rookie Blake Grupe miss game-winning tries, however the information might be on the 49ers’ aspect.

The desk above reveals field-goal make charges within the postseason since 2000 for rookie kickers vs. veterans. The numbers stack up fairly evenly throughout varied distance cutoffs. Based mostly on these numbers, there’s no statistical indication rookies are much less efficient within the postseason.

“Playoff groups have a special aura, totally different really feel within the locker room,” a veteran evaluator mentioned. “Percentages are one factor, however who’s the man who trots on the market to strive the game-winner? It’s a special strain capturing free throws up by 20, down by 20, than in that kind of scenario.”

Followers would possibly recall rookie kickers lacking playoff kicks: Rodrigo Blankenship with the Colts in 2020, Harrison Butker with the Chiefs in 2017, Nate Kaeding with the Chargers in 2005. However the NFL has seen loads of rookies kick successfully within the postseason as properly. Evan McPherson made all 14 postseason tries with the 2021 Tremendous Bowl Bengals. The 2017 Eagles gained a Tremendous Bowl with rookie Jake Elliott performing properly. The 2012 Tremendous Bowl champion Ravens had rookie Justin Tucker, whereas the 2006 Patriots trusted rookie Stephen Gostkowski.

4. Do they make wristbands for head coaches? That isn’t the one query going through the Broncos.

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton has made clear his frustration with quarterback Russell Wilson in myriad methods, together with when he advised Wilson may sooner or later put on a wristband if it will assist velocity up communication within the huddle.

We joked on the Soccer GM Podcast that the top coach himself may have used a wristband to help with sport administration after the Broncos known as timeout earlier than punting with 22 seconds left within the first half of a 19-8 defeat at Kansas Metropolis in Week 6. Payton mentioned he thought Denver was heading into third down, not fourth, when he known as timeout, serving to the Chiefs’ drive to a discipline purpose.

It wasn’t an remoted miscue. Denver has twice this season used all three timeouts with at the least 4 minutes remaining earlier than halftime. Payton suffered that destiny solely 4 instances in 258 whole video games teaching the Saints, when his affiliation with Drew Brees was one of the crucial profitable partnerships in latest NFL historical past. Payton has had it occur twice in six video games with Wilson as his quarterback.

Russell Wilson’s maintain on the beginning job in Denver appears extra tenuous with each sport. (William Purnell / USA At present)

Throughout the league, groups have used all their first-half timeouts above 4 minutes simply 14 instances since 2020. That features six instances by Carolina when Matt Rhule coached the Panthers. Payton is the one different coach with multiple such sport over the previous three-plus seasons.

The irony is wealthy in Denver, the place Payton’s predecessor, Nathaniel Hackett, was mocked for his sport administration so totally, the group made him rent veteran assistant Jerry Rosburg to assist him after solely three video games (Denver was 2-1 at that time). The Broncos below Hackett had hassle getting out of the huddle on time.

Hackett took the hit for these points, however when the issue recurred below Payton, the blame shifted to Wilson, the frequent denominator.

All of that is pointing towards a future in Denver that features Payton however not Wilson. Payton’s sport plans over the previous two weeks had been conservative sufficient to recommend the coach was publicly demonstrating he doesn’t assume he can run his offense as at present configured, regardless of some success on the bottom. These sport plans had been conservative sufficient to sign a possible in-season quarterback change. Denver faces Inexperienced Bay and Kansas Metropolis over the subsequent two weeks earlier than heading into its Week 9 bye.

5. You play to win the sport, however are you able to win too rapidly? The Giants and Vikings are take a look at circumstances.

The New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings exceeded expectations below first-year head coaches in 2022. Each reached the playoffs. Each are struggling of their second seasons, going through tough questions in regards to the future. Would they’ve been higher off having fun with solely reasonable success early? That might rely on how properly the soccer management has communicated with possession.

Each head coach and common supervisor needs to win as a lot as potential, however the purpose is to construct for the long run, which might require time to do issues with sustainability in thoughts. Unhealthy groups that win immediately can reset expectations for followers and possession, making it much less sensible to take one step backward within the quick time period for a greater shot at taking two steps ahead down the road.

What do the Giants’ and Vikings’ ownerships assume?

“The very best first 12 months may be that 7-10 season the place you present some promise,” a veteran coach with expertise on a half-dozen groups mentioned. “The Giants gained a bunch of video games early, individuals had been heaping reward on the top coach, individuals get the expectation of what the quarterback may be. However oftentimes, totally different internally as a result of the home you might be dwelling in. You’re contained in the partitions each single day and the place the roof leaks, the place the inspiration is cracked.”

Buffalo managed such a scenario properly. The Payments surprisingly reached the playoffs of their first season below Sean McDermott, a euphoric second after a 17-year playoff drought. They went 6-10 the subsequent 12 months, then started a gradual rise behind Josh Allen and a prime protection. There isn’t a Josh Allen on the Giants or Vikings.

Minnesota specifically finds itself in an attention-grabbing spot, with Kirk Cousins approaching free company and taking part in properly sufficient, most definitely, to maintain the Vikings from climbing too excessive within the draft order.

“They already gave a contract to (tight finish) T.J. Hockenson, and they’re going to give one to (receiver) Justin Jefferson,” an exec mentioned. “Now, what? Are you going into the rookie pool and taking the fourth-best quarterback within the draft? You possibly can appear to be Atlanta with (Desmond) Ridder fairly fast.”

6. Two-minute drill: There have been already some ways to win a sport earlier than the Dolphins invented one other one.

The Dolphins had been one among 223 groups since 2000 to be favored by at the least 13.5 factors in a regular-season or playoff sport. Seventeen of these 223 groups fell behind by 14 or extra. Six of the 17 gained anyway. The Dolphins had been the one a kind of 223 groups to win and canopy the unfold, which was 13.5 for this sport.

• Six catches for 163 yards and a landing in opposition to Carolina left the Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill with 812 yards by means of the primary six video games. That ranks second in NFL historical past to Corridor of Famer Don Hutson, who had 819 yards by means of six with Inexperienced Bay in 1942.

• Jared Goff is having fun with the second-best begin to a season for his profession from a statistical standpoint, behind solely his 2018 Tremendous Bowl season with the Rams. With the Lions at 5-1 and Goff heading towards a possible contract extension, may one other group come after his injured backup, former College of Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker?

Randy Mueller raised the thought final week, recalling examples from his profession as a GM when providing a decide one spherical larger than a prospect’s precise draft spherical proved alluring. Detroit used a third-round selection for Hooker, who’s recovering from ACL surgical procedure. Hooker would have been valued larger if wholesome. Might that be true once more sooner or later sooner or later?

• Information that Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson would possibly bear season-ending shoulder surgical procedure may carry a silver lining. Richardson bought to play sufficient for the Colts to judge the place he stands, but when he shuts it down for the season, neither he nor the group must undergo by means of a full season of rising pains. Gardner Minshew’s three-pick sport in opposition to Jacksonville on Sunday works in opposition to the thought Indy is best positioned to compete with the journeyman within the lineup, however most coaches and execs I’ve spoken with imagine that to be the case within the quick time period.

(High photograph: Dustin Satloff / Getty Pictures)

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