The 14th-seeded North Dakota State Bison battle the third-seeded Michigan State Spartans in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region on Thursday. NDSU is coming off a 70-62 win over North Dakota in the Summit League Tournament championship game on March 8, while Michigan State dropped an 88-84 decision to UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals on Friday. The Bison (27-7), who have won four in a row, won the Summit League regular-season title as well, compiling a 14-2 conference mark. The Spartans (25-7), who have dropped two in a row, tied for second in the Big Ten with a 15-5 Big Ten record.
Tipoff from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. This will be the first meeting between the schools. Michigan State is a 15.5-point favorite in the latest Michigan State vs. North Dakota State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 143.5. Before making any North Dakota State vs. Michigan State picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has simulated North Dakota vs. Michigan State 10,000 times and just revealed its men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Michigan State vs. North Dakota State:
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North Dakota State vs. Michigan State spread: |
Michigan State -15.5 |
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North Dakota State vs. Michigan State over/under: |
143.5 points |
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North Dakota State vs. Michigan State money line: |
North Dakota State +978, Michigan State -1887 |
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North Dakota State vs. Michigan State picks: |
See picks at SportsLine |
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North Dakota State vs. Michigan State TV: |
TNT |
Top North Dakota State vs. Michigan State predictions
After 10,000 simulations of North Dakota State vs. Michigan State, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (143.5 points). The Over has hit in eight of the last 10 Michigan State games. North Dakota State is 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games. Michigan State, meanwhile, is 4-3 ATS in its last seven.
The model projects the Bison to have two players score 10.4 points or more, including Damari Wheeler-Thomas, who is projected to score 14.2 points. The Spartans are projected to have four players score 12 points or more, led by Jeremy Fears Jr., who is projected to score 17.2 points. The model is projecting 151 combined points as the Over clears in over 70% of simulations.
How to make Michigan State vs. North Dakota State picks
The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Michigan State vs. North Dakota State, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.
