NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Was it actually solely 16 months in the past? How can or not it’s potential that Juan Soto’s total tenure as a San Diego Padre glided by so quick it slot in between seasons of “Curb Your Enthusiasm”?
However that’s the deal on The Deal — and never simply any deal. When Soto went from the Washington Nationals to San Diego, I wrote that it was “the largest deal in commerce deadline historical past.” However that’s a wrap on Soto’s irritating time as a Padre. He’s a New York Yankee now.
So let’s do that. Sixteen months in the past, I wrote a Soto by the Numbers column to assist clarify the monstrous dimension of that unique commerce to San Diego. Now that he’s dialing Allied Van Strains but once more, let’s run it again, to clarify what the Yankees are (and aren’t) getting, with this version of Soto by the Numbers 2.0.
The great
Juan Soto has piled up the stats and accolades, together with 4 Silver Slugger awards, three All-Star nods and a batting title, in his younger profession. He turned 25 in October. (Darren Yamashita / USA At the moment)
The magic quantity — 24
As I did in my final Soto column, I’m beginning with the quantity that makes all the opposite numbers so mind-rattling — his age on the finish of final season: 24. Take into consideration that.
For the reason that 2000 season, we’ve had 9 gamers win a Rookie of the Yr award at an age older than Soto’s age as of the 2023 season. 9. This man is already on the highway to Cooperstown. These guys — 9 of them — have been simply getting began on their baseball journey.
So what’s the massive deal about Juan Soto? He’s so freaking younger — nonetheless. And he has now been traded for 11 gamers simply up to now 16 months.
The magic quantity — 157
Soto’s OPS+ has declined barely up to now 16 months. But it surely’s nonetheless hovering in fairly the elite orbit, at 157. That tells us that, via his age-24 season, he has been 57 p.c extra productive than the typical hitter in his sport over his six seasons within the massive leagues. Now right here comes the a part of this column the place I attempt to clarify how rarified that’s.
Within the trendy period (1901-present), solely 5 hitters have gotten a minimum of 3,000 plate appearances via their age-24 seasons and are available out the opposite aspect with an OPS+ of 157 or higher. See if any of those names ring a bell:
Ty Cobb: 176
Mike Trout: 170
Mickey Mantle: 166
Jimmie Foxx: 166
Juan Soto: 157
Whew. Wish to decrease the bar to a minimal of two,500 plate appearances? Positive. Why the heck not? Then we get so as to add in 4 extra super-cool names:
Ted Williams: 190
Albert Pujols: 167
Tris Speaker: 162
Rogers Hornsby: 158
In order that’s 9 names. You’ll be able to monitor down extra information on seven of them in Cooperstown, N.Y. — on their Corridor of Fame plaques. The opposite two are Pujols, who may begin rehearsing his Corridor of Fame speech tomorrow, and Soto.
I don’t current this record to present Soto the concept he ought to begin rehearsing his personal speech. I current it since you ought to know that each trendy hitter whose profession started the best way Soto’s has wound up in baseball’s magic kingdom.
The magic quantity — .421
Dudes as younger as Juan Soto aren’t imagined to have a profession on-base proportion that begins with a “4.” However the memo to tell him of that should have been misplaced within the mail — as a result of, via his age-24 season, because of probably the most discerning eye on the plate in baseball, this man has an OBP of .421. And also you’ll be shocked to know that places him in additional unimaginable firm:
.421 OBP or higher via age 24
Ted Williams: .481
Jimmie Foxx: .432
Arky Vaughan: .429
Juan Soto: .421
(minimal 2,500 plate appearances)
In order that’s a very good group. Besides that Soto separates himself from nearly everybody as a result of he additionally has 160 profession homers to go along with that .421 OBP. And right here’s the entire record of all different hitters who had ever carried out that, at this age, earlier than Soto entered the dialog:
Jimmie Foxx
Finish of record.
The magic quantity — 179
I’m reprising one final nugget from the unique Soto by the Numbers column as a result of it’s too spectacular to not convey again for an encore.
I discussed again then that Joe DiMaggio was a Corridor of Famer. His profession OBP was .398.
Joe Morgan is a Corridor of Famer. His profession OBP was .392.
Honus Wagner is a Corridor of Famer. His profession OBP was .391.
However right here is Soto, already rocking a .421 on-base proportion — and it’s exhausting to see his OBP falling into even their vary anytime quickly. And why is that? As a result of for Soto’s OBP to drop under .400, he must keep away from reaching base in his subsequent 179 plate appearances!
For some purpose, I’m not feeling that. So what are the Yankees getting on this man, Juan Soto? Not merely an incredible hitter, however at his greatest, a traditionally particular hitter. And so they appear to concentrate on that … since they simply traded 5 guys to purchase into one yr of that!
However, nevertheless, they need to additionally concentrate on …
The unhealthy
Juan Soto had a subpar season defensively. Will he enhance that a part of his sport in New York? (Geoff Burke / USA At the moment)
The not-so-magic quantity — minus-6
There was a time when Soto was thought of an above-average defender within the outfield. That point looks like a looonnng whereas in the past. Doesn’t it?
In accordance with Sports activities Information Options, Soto completed final season with minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved? Does that appear not that very best? Probably as a result of it’s not that very best. The truth is, solely 9 full-time outfielders in baseball have been worse than that. That looks like it could be an issue, for a person keen on making half a billion {dollars} subsequent winter when he cashes in his free-agent lottery ticket.
“Juan Soto might be nearly as good as he desires to be,” mentioned one rival exec who has been watching Soto for years. “He simply must resolve he desires to be.”
However is that encouraging — the data that there’s nonetheless a good defender in there, or that there was once? It might be extra encouraging if we didn’t should ask that query!
The not-so-magic quantity — minus-3
Hmmm. For a traditionally particular participant, Soto certain appears to have loads of minuses on his report card.
So what’s this not-so-magic quantity? It’s Soto’s Baserunning Runs Above Common, in response to Baseball Reference. That positioned him in a tie for fourth-worst base runner in baseball amongst regulars who bought sufficient taking part in time to qualify for the batting title, forward of solely …
DJ LeMahieu: -5
Brandon Nimmo: -4
Gleyber Torres: -4
However now right here’s the worst half: Should you’re questioning what number of gamers have been as under common as Soto was as each a defensive outfielder and a base runner, effectively, so was I! And the reply is …
Solely two major-league outfielders landed in that group — Soto and Nimmo, who will probably be roaming heart area for the New York Mets throughout city.
The numbers say Soto was a median to barely above-average base runner in his first three seasons. However in his previous three seasons, he has spun off a minus-3, minus-2 and one other minus-3.
Would you bestow a half-billion greenback contract on a participant who was that far under common each within the outfield and on the bases? Let’s simply say there will probably be some groups asking themselves that query subsequent winter.
The not-so-magic quantity — 2
All proper, right here’s yet one more quantity to consider. What is that quantity, “2”? It occurs to be the variety of instances Soto has been traded earlier than he performs a single sport at age 25. And for a participant this mega-talented, that’s simply odd.
If we are able to stick to the idea that gamers whose careers begin like Soto’s find yourself within the Corridor of Fame, I couldn’t assist however marvel what number of different Corridor of Fame place gamers have been traded as many instances as Soto earlier than their age-25 season.
So I requested MLB Community’s analysis division to look into that. And after a session with the Elias Sports activities Bureau, we had our reply:
What number of different Corridor of Fame place gamers within the live-ball period bought traded twice that younger? Yep. That will be zero!
Now that’s not essentially a mirrored image on Soto the baseball participant or Soto the teammate. It’s as a lot about his agent (Scott Boras) and his impending free-agent value level as something. However, if Soto had simply completed main both his first workforce, the Nationals, or his newest workforce, the Padres, to sustained postseason glory, are we certain that both of them — or each — would have traded him? I’ll go along with no on that.
The long run
What sort of numbers will Juan Soto put up in his stroll yr? (Kamil Krzaczynski / USA At the moment)
So … you have been anticipating possibly “The ugly” as our ultimate class? Sorry. Hate to disappoint you. However what actually issues is what model of Juan Soto the Yankees are getting. So let’s attempt to reply that thriller with one final magic quantity.
The magic quantity — .966
Again within the first week of Might, I wrote a column referred to as What We Discovered within the First 30 Video games of the Season. In it, I took a step again to digest Soto’s first three months as a Padre — and concluded he ought to have taken the Nationals’ cash (15 years, $440 million) earlier than he went to San Diego and made individuals marvel if he was as generationally proficient as they as soon as thought he was.
That’s as a result of, over these first three months as a Padre — August and September of 2022, then April of 2023 — Soto’s messy numbers with San Diego regarded like this:
.224/.382/.388/.770, 11 HR, 23 XBH in 81 G
Which prompted one rival govt to inform me on the time: “Look, he’s an incredible participant. Nice. However there’s nice after which there’s $400 million nice.” And an 81-game “stoop” had a number of individuals questioning whether or not Soto was actually $400 million nice. However …
Get me rewrite! Now let’s take a look at the way it went after that — in his final 5 months as a Padre:
.290/.418/.548/.966, 30 HR, 60 XBH in 133 G
Oh. That’s very totally different. So what does that .966 OPS inform us about who Soto actually is — and what the Yankees could be getting in 2024, after we’re guessing he’ll be barely motivated by his marketing campaign to make half-a-billion {dollars} on that massive stage in New York Metropolis? I quizzed one other rival exec who has labored within the Nationwide League since Soto arrived within the massive leagues in 2018.
Requested if he was satisfied once more that Soto was nonetheless a particular offensive participant, sure for the Corridor of Fame, that exec was all in on that. Right here is how he answered.
“A hundred percent,” he mentioned. “Now that he’s over the tradition shock of really being traded, his numbers will proceed on the identical trajectory: HOF within the making.”
However there was much more to that prediction.
“He undoubtedly needed to be again on the East Coast,” he mentioned of Soto. “Hitting in entrance of (Aaron) Decide, he’ll win the MVP. And simply keep in mind you heard that right here first … MVP.”
Juan Soto, MVP. If that’s what truly occurs on this man’s first season in New York, I can promise you this. You’ll be studying a Juan Soto by the Numbers 3.0 column subsequent winter!
GO DEEPER
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(High photograph of Juan Soto: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Pictures)
