Iowa vs. Vanderbilt prediction, odds, spread: 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl picks from proven model

The 23rd-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will take on Diego Pavia and the 14th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores in the 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. Iowa closed out the regular season with a 40-16 win at Nebraska on Nov. 28, while Vanderbilt rolled to a 45-24 win over Tennessee on Nov. 29. The Hawkeyes (8-4), who finished sixth in the Big Ten, are 0-4 against ranked opponents this season. The Commodores (10-2), who tied for fifth in the SEC, are 4-2 against ranked foes in 2025. The Hawkeyes are expected to have virtually their full roster available. Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers, the Mackey Award winner, has opted out and will skip the game.

Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., is at noon ET. This will be the first meeting between the schools. The Commodores are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Vanderbilt vs. Iowa odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 46.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Iowa vs. Vanderbilt picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Iowa vs. Vanderbilt. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Iowa vs. Vanderbilt:

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How to make Iowa vs. Vanderbilt picks

After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine’s model is going Over (46.5) on the total. The Over has hit in five of the last 10 Iowa games, including one push. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 Vanderbilt games. 

The model has Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski passing for more than 180 yards passing and two touchdowns, while Pavia will throw for more than 210 yards and rush for more than 50 with a combined two touchdowns. The teams are projected to combine for 53 points as the Over clears in nearly 60% of simulations. 

The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time. You can see the model’s pick at SportsLine.  

So who wins Vanderbilt vs. Iowa, and which side of the spread hits in more than 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Iowa vs. Vanderbilt spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that’s simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.