This is completely by accident, but I have a bit of a theme with my free home run picks for Friday in that I’m taking outfielders in their first seasons with new clubs who will be facing former teammates. Specifically, I’m talking about the Dodgers’ Kyle Tucker and Rangers’ Brandon Nimmo. Both will be playing in hitter-friendly parks and facing struggling starting pitchers they should know quite well.
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Last Friday, my two home run plays were Arizona’s Ketel Marte vs. Toronto — while also mentioning teammate Nolan Arenado — and the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani at Coors Field. As I will always say, I’d obviously recommend Over 1.5 total bases on any players I’m picking to hit a home run. Marte didn’t go yard but had two hits. Arenado did homer, but he was not the official play. Ohtani didn’t homer but had two hits, so all three of those players would have cashed on Over 1.5 total bases. Just saying, in case you’re looking for more MLB betting opportunities.
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Top Friday MLB home run picks
- Kyle Tucker, Dodgers (+537, DraftKings)
- Brandon Nimmo, Rangers (+410, FanDuel)
Kyle Tucker, Dodgers (+537, DraftKings)
One of the series I was most looking forward to this MLB season — at least as much as one can in the grind of 162 games — was Cubs at Dodgers in what’s hopefully a preview of the NLCS. It’s a first pitch of 10:10 ET tonight on Apple TV.
When there is no 2027 MLB season because of a likely lockout, the Dodgers’ signing of Cubs free-agent outfielder Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million contract in January will be a major talking point. It’s not that Tucker is not a fine player, but the Dodgers’ collection of All-Stars because of their spending spree has become a source of controversy.
Tucker is good at everything but outright stellar at anything, and that includes power. His career high in homers is “only” 30. Sometimes players will press early in their first season with a new team after signing a big contract and Tucker might be doing that, as he’s currently batting .245 with three homers and a slugging percentage of .372 that is Tucker’s worst since his first year in the Show in 2018. Just for a point of comparison, Dodgers reserve outfielder Alex Call, a journeyman, has a .375 slugging percentage this year. I feel like I’m talking myself out of this… but I’m playing something on Cubs-Dodgers, so why not.
Dodger Stadium is near the top in terms of home run park factor and Tucker has terrific splits off 2025 teammate Jameson Taillon at 4-for-12 with a homer, a double and 1.051 OPS. Taillon doesn’t throw very hard and has allowed six homers over his past three starts. Also consider Shohei Ohtani (3-for-10, two HR, 2B vs. Taillon) and Teoscar Hernandez (two HR, double in 18 at-bats).
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Brandon Nimmo, Rangers (+410, FanDuel)
Just like Kyle Tucker above surely saw his Friday opposing starting pitcher plenty in batting practices and the like as former teammates, we should be able to say the same about Brandon Nimmo when his Texas Rangers open an AL West home series vs. the Athletics at 8:05 ET. I’ll get there, don’t worry.
Many Mets fans and current players in that squad were blindsided when New York traded Nimmo, the longest-tenured Met at the time and one of the leaders in the locker room, to Texas for second baseman Marcus Semien. To be fair, Nimmo did have to waive his full no-trade clause to complete the move.
I won’t sit here and say that deal is solely why the Mets are near the NL East basement, but it probably had some part. Semien isn’t hitting much. Texas, meanwhile, is contending in the mediocre AL West and Nimmo has settled in at the top of the lineup, batting .304 with four homers and an .892 OPS that would be a career high.
The Rangers’ Globe Life Field is not quite as hitter-friendly at Dodger Stadium, but it’s in the top 10 of the league and Nimmo gets to see struggling Athletics righty Luis Severino for at least two at-bats (we’d think). Severino, who played on the 2024 Mets, had a decent 2026 debut but is 0-2 with a 6.86 ERA and four homers allowed in his past four. Nimmo is 5-for-13 career off Severino with two doubles an a homer.
Severino lost in Sacramento to the Rangers on April 13 and allowed two homers in his six innings. Jake Burger hit both homers and is another option tonight at +436. But Burger is batting only .176 at home with no homers, so that’s also why I went with Nimmo. And, you know, the whole facing former a teammate theme.
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