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Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is bullish on the inventory market in 2024, however he does not anticipate shares to go up in a straight line.
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Lee warned that the inventory market is due for a sell-off within the first quarter of 2024.
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These are the 4 the reason why Lee expects a inventory market pullback to happen throughout the subsequent few months.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street for 2024, however he does not anticipate the inventory market to go up in a straight line.
Lee warned purchasers in a notice on Friday that the inventory market is due for a sell-off throughout the first few months of 2024.
To be clear, Lee does anticipate the S&P 500 to rise to an all-time excessive in the course of the month of January, and he expects positive factors within the inventory market to proceed over the following 12 months, with a 2024 year-end S&P 500 value goal of 5,200.
“Reaching an all-time excessive is a major market milestone. And shares don’t out of the blue reverse from there,” Lee stated.
However the inventory market hitting document highs in January will doubtless quickly be adopted by a pullback of about 5% someday in February or March, representing a interval of consolidation for the inventory market after it staged a 16% rally because the finish of October.
“Within the present context, we might see S&P 500 4,400 to 4,500 as soon as we make all-time highs, or a modest pullback,” Lee warned. “That is according to our 2024 Yr Forward Outlook, the place our base case is the S&P 500 makes most of its positive factors in [the] second half of 2024.”
Lee supplied the next 4 the reason why he expects shares to stage a pullback after January.
1. The market might be getting forward of the Federal Reserve by way of rate of interest cuts. Whereas the Fed expects solely three rate of interest cuts in 2024, the market is at present pricing in six rate of interest cuts subsequent 12 months. Any pullback in expectations of what number of instances the Fed cuts rates of interest subsequent 12 months might result in draw back volatility in shares.
2. “AI timeline might be pushed out resulting from a ‘systematic hack’ by malevolent AI,” Lee stated.
3. “Fairness markets have to consolidate the parabolic positive factors from late 2023,” Lee stated.
4. “A drawdown in February/March timeframe is according to election 12 months seasonal returns,” Lee stated.
Any dips within the inventory market subsequent 12 months ought to in the end be purchased, Fundstrat says, as technical strategist Mark Newton stated in a notice final week that trillions of dollars of cash on the sidelines should provide enough fire power to make any dips in shares short-lived.
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