Barcelona and Newcastle played to a 1-1 draw in the first leg of their 2025-26 Champions League Round of 16 matchup, with both goals in the match coming after the 85th minute. The Catalan giants were fortunate to get a draw after Lamine Yamal converted a penalty kick late in stoppage time to level the score. Barcelona now come home to try and advance to the quarterfinals with a win, while Newcastle hope to stun the La Liga leaders on Wednesday.
Kickoff from Camp Nou in Barcelona is set for 1:45 p.m. ET and soccer fans can watch the action live on Paramount+. Barcelona are -175 favorites on the money line (wager $175 to win $100) in the latest Barcelona vs. Newcastle odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Newcastle are +400 underdogs (wager $100 to win $400). A draw in regular time is +380 and the total is 3.5 (Over -110, Under -115). Barcelona is -340 to advance while Newcastle is +250. You can find the latest UCL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model here, and you should also see what SportsLine expert Martin Green is betting before making your wagers on Barcelona vs. Newcastle.
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After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up.
Here are Green’s best bets and analysis for Barcelona vs. Newcastle on Wednesday, March 18.
Barcelona vs. Newcastle best bets
- Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals (-143): 1 unit
- Barcelona to win and Over 2.5 goals (+100): 0.5 units
Barcelona and Newcastle will battle for a place in the Champions League quarterfinals when they meet at Camp Nou on Wednesday. These teams played out an entertaining 1-1 draw in Newcastle last week. St. James’ Place was rocking after Harvey Barnes volleyed Jacob Murphy’s cross into the back of the net. The Magpies were on course for a thoroughly deserved 1-0 win, but they were undone by a moment of brilliance from Dani Olmo in the dying seconds. He slalomed into the box, and Newcastle defender Malick Thiaw sent him crashing to the turf with an ill-timed tackle. Barcelona were awarded a penalty and Lamine Yamal converted it with the final kick of the game. That leaves this two-legged clash delicately poised at 1-1 as we approach the second leg in Barcelona.
The Blaugrana are now the clear favorites to progress to the Round of 16, but that’s by no means a formality. They looked very vulnerable to Newcastle’s pace on the counterattack last week, so this promises to be an intriguing game.
Newcastle’s forwards need to be more composed
Newcastle manager Eddie Howe opted for an unusual attacking triumvirate when these teams met last week. He left regular strikers Nick Woltemade and Yoan Wissa on the bench, along with star winger Anthony Gordon – the team’s top scorer in the Champions League this season with 10 goals. Instead, he went for a front three of Barnes, Anthony Elanga, and William Osuka. The intent was clear: Howe fielded his three quickest forwards in a bid to capitalize on Barcelona’s notoriously high defensive line. The plan nearly worked. Newcastle’s forwards got in behind Barcelona’s defense a bunch of times, but a lack of composure proved costly. They squandered chances and misplaced crosses, letting Barça off the hook several times. Barnes eventually found the breakthrough, but Yamal’s last-gasp equalizer means Barcelona now have the initiative ahead of the second leg.
It will be interesting to see if Howe keeps the same attacking trio on Wednesday. He reverted to a more conventional frontline for Newcastle’s 1-0 win against Chelsea at the weekend with Woltemade, Gordon, Barnes, and Murphy in a fluid attack. Either way, the Magpies clearly have enough pace and quality to score against Barcelona.
Barcelona’s forwards are in fine form
Barcelona warmed up for this match by thumping Sevilla 5-2 in La Liga on Saturday. Winger Raphinha scored a hat-trick – including two penalties – while Olmo and João Cancelo were also on the score sheet. That result extended their winning streak to four league games, and it ensured they remain four points clear of Real Madrid at the top of the table. It underscored their attacking prowess, but also their defensive limitations.
Barça have now conceded a goal per game in La Liga this season, as opponents frequently exploit their high defensive line. They’re unlikely to keep Newcastle’s quick forwards at bay for 90 minutes, but they should score a couple of goals in this game. Yamal was rested for most of Saturday’s game against Sevilla, so he’ll be fresh. Barcelona can also call upon Raphinha, Olmo, Ferran Torres, Robert Lewandowski, and Marcus Rashford in attack, which is a formidable array of weapons. It could be a close game, but Barcelona’s superior firepower could ultimately prove decisive.
