Chelsea may have picked up their first point in Premier League play since March 4 with Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Liverpool, but it is little consolation to the Blues as their chances of qualifying for next season’s UEFA Champions League continue to dim – even as a bonus sixth spot becomes closer to a reality.
The Blues currently sit in ninth place thanks to their poor run of form, despite sitting level on points with the Reds in early March. They entered the weekend nine points behind fifth-place Aston Villa with three games to go, a win at Anfield the only way they could mathematically begin the comeback. Fifth place now eludes them, but the Champions League is technically still within their sights – but it will depend on a lot of favors, and for them to actually pick up their form with two games to go.
A special set of circumstances could see a sixth Premier League team enter the Champions League next season, but Chelsea have to dig themselves out of their own mess first. Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford all entered the weekend ahead of the Blues and though just three points separated the four teams before this round of matches began, one of them just might be more likely to reach Europe’s top club competition than two-time winners Chelsea.
How the Premier League’s sixth-place team could qualify for the Champions League
The Premier League was guaranteed to have four teams in next season’s edition of the Champions League, but in the new Swiss style format introduced in the 2024-25 season, a bonus berth each is available to the two countries atop UEFA’s association club coefficient rankings. The rankings are determined by the performance of those countries’ clubs in European competitions each season and are currently led by England and Italy, the Premier League bolstered by the fact that all six of this season’s participants advanced to the knockouts and that Arsenal will take part in the final against Paris Saint-Germain on May 30.
That’s how the Premier League earned a fifth spot, though it is one that many expected for England’s top flight, and seems likely to go to Aston Villa at this point. There’s a unique quirk in this whole scenario, though — Villa are off to the UEFA Europa League final on May 20, where they play Freiburg in a competition where winners take home a well-earned European trophy and a Champions League berth.
This is where things get tricky. It’s a well established rule that winning the Europa League only generates an extra spot for the team that wins it. So, for example, if you win the Europa League and win your domestic league, congratulations, you’ve qualified twice for the Champions League, but nobody else gets the benefit. Your league wouldn’t expand from four to five spots (or five to six). That’s not the same as the extra Champions League spot leagues win for performance in the Champions League though. That’s just always tacked on at the end.
So here’s what that means for England if we follow the bouncing ball. If Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish fourth in the Premier League, then they’ve qualified for the Champions League twice, to nobody else’s benefit. Then, the extra Champions League spot from the coefficient ranking goes to the fifth-place team in England. However, if Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth in the Premier League, then the top four in England qualify, Aston Villa qualify via solely the Europa League, and then the coefficient spot gets awarded, meaning the sixth place team in England goes to the Champions League. Simple.
This is a noticeably more complicated scenario than last season, though the same operation is at play, more or less. Six Premier League teams reached the Champions League because Tottenham Hotspur won the Europa League, the top four qualified, and then the bonus spot went to the first team that hadn’t already qualified, which was the fifth-place finisher.
Who’s in the running for sixth?
Chelsea are still mathematically able to finish sixth, but their late-season slump has really put a dent in their chances of reaching the Champions League. Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford all entered the weekend above the Blues and will stay there for another week regardless of their own results because Chelsea’s draw at Liverpool was not enough to lift them out of ninth, even temporarily. Everton are also mathematically in the hunt, depending on how results fall.
Much of it will come down to the final weeks of the season. The Premier League title race — or whatever is left of it — will run through this race, with challengers Manchester City to face Aston Villa and Bournemouth during that stretch. The same is true for the relegation race, with Spurs hoping to stay safe in an upcoming battle against Chelsea, while Nottingham Forest hope to have secured safety from the drop before the final day against Bournemouth.
Could Chelsea miss out on Europe altogether?
There is a very real possibility that Chelsea will sit out of European competition completely next season. Only the top seven are guaranteed continental play next season — currently, the sixth-place team will qualify for the Europa League’s league phase and the seventh-place side will enter the final qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League. If a sixth Champions League spot comes into play, expect the Europa League berth to land at seventh place and the Conference League berth to fall to the eighth-place team. That would mean whoever sits in ninth would miss out entirely.
Chelsea do have one more option available to them, though — they will play Manchester City in the FA Cup final on May 16 and if they win, they will qualify for the Europa League.
Premier League standings
|
TEAM |
GP |
W |
D |
L |
GF |
GA |
GD |
PTS |
|
3. Manchester United |
36 |
18 |
11 |
7 |
63 |
48 |
+15 |
65 |
|
4. Liverpool |
36 |
17 |
8 |
11 |
60 |
48 |
+12 |
59 |
|
5. Aston Villa |
36 |
17 |
7 |
11 |
48 |
44 |
+4 |
58 |
|
6. Bournemouth |
36 |
13 |
16 |
7 |
56 |
52 |
+4 |
55 |
|
7. Brighton and Hove Albion |
36 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
52 |
42 |
+10 |
53 |
|
8. Brentford |
36 |
14 |
9 |
13 |
52 |
49 |
+3 |
51 |
|
9. Chelsea |
36 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
55 |
49 |
+6 |
49 |
|
10. Everton |
35 |
13 |
9 |
13 |
44 |
44 |
0 |
48 |
Remaining schedule
May 10
- Crystal Palace vs. Everton
- Burnley vs. Aston Villa
May 15
- Aston Villa vs. Liverpool
May 17
- Brentford vs. Crystal Palace
- Leeds United vs. Brighton and Hove Albon
- Everton vs. Sunderland
- Bournemouth vs. Manchester City
May 19
- Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur
May 24
- Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
- Brighton and Hove Albion vs. Manchester United
- Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton
- Liverpool vs. Brentford
- Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth
- Sunderland vs. Chelsea
