Free-agent starting pitcher Max Scherzer is headed back to the Blue Jays on an incentive-laden $3 million contract, per Sportsnet. He joins a talented stable of starting pitchers, though one with plenty of question marks. Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease stand at the top, rookie Trey Yesavage and inconsistent José Berríos are also in the mix, as are Scherzer and Cody Ponce, who is returning to MLB from Korea. Shane Bieber is dealing with forearm fatigue and will get a late start to the season. The Blue Jays, of course, are looking to get back to the World Series after falling just short of a title last year.
Much more interesting when it comes to Scherzer, though, is his career as a whole. He’ll be 41 years old this season and has battled injuries the last several years, going back to his injury during the 2019 World Series. That is to say that this might well be his swan song.
What a career it has been. If you’re curious about whether or not he’s going to be a Hall of Famer, I can just let you know right now that he is absolutely going to make it.
In parts of 18 seasons, Scherzer is 221-117, having led his league in wins four times. He has a 3.22 ERA (131 ERA+) and 1.08 WHIP — he led his league in WHIP five times.
When it comes to the counting stats, Scherzer is likely to hit two milestones this season. He’s already topped 3,000 strikeouts and that’s well in the rearview, but he’s only 11 from 3,500, having already recorded 3,489 in his career. It means much less to the baseball world than 3,000, but only 10 pitchers have ever reached 3,500 strikeouts and the top 10 is within reach; Walter Johnson is 10th all-time with 3,509. In fact, it seems possible that Scherzer could climb as high as seventh on the all-time list this season.
6. Tom Seaver, 3,640 strikeouts
7. Don Sutton, 3,574
8. Justin Verlander, 3,553
9. Gaylord Perry, 3,534
10. Walter Johnson, 3,509
11. Max Scherzer, 3,489
Verlander is a moving target there, as he’s signed with the Tigers for 2026. Scherzer had 82 strikeouts in 17 starts last season, so finishing around Sutton is a reasonable prediction, though it’s likely Verlander stays ahead. That means, in this case, Scherzer would finish the season in eighth place all-time.
Further, Scherzer has 2,963 innings pitched. The 3,000-inning mark isn’t quite as ballyhooed as racking up the strikeouts, but Scherzer is likely to become the 139th pitcher ever to hit 3,000 innings. Keep in mind it’s a much different game than back in the 1800s and early 1900s. If we limited the scope to just pitchers in the Wild Card Era (1995-present), Scherzer would then become just the 12th pitcher to reach 3,000 innings. The most recent pitchers to get there were Verlander, Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia.
Something that isn’t required but is always a nice bonus to have here is what I like to call the Feel Factor. Meaning, when you were watching a player during his career, did it feel like you were watching a Hall of Famer? It’s just a gut-feel thing and we should be able to answer immediately. With Scherzer, it’s one of those easy, slam-dunk, emphatic “yes” answers. Think about watching prime Scherzer just stomp around the mound out there, controlling the entire game. He’s long had that feel.
In terms of awards, Scherzer is one of just 11 pitchers to have won three Cy Youngs. He also finished second once, third twice and fifth twice, giving him seven top-five finishes. He’s an eight-time All-Star with two World Series rings. Speaking of, in his postseason career, he has a 3.78 ERA with 182 strikeouts in 157 ⅓ innings.
By JAWS, Scherzer is already above the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher at 27th all-time (there are 67 Hall of Fame starters). He’s ahead of Nolan Ryan and Roy Halladay, just to name two studs in the same ballpark, and right on the heels of Tom Glavine, Greinke and Fergie Jenkins.
What more is there for Scherzer to accomplish? Not much, really. We’ve already discussed the strikeout and innings milestones within reach, but those are minor. Scherzer’s Hall of Fame resume is already overwhelming and complete. He has plenty of money too. He’s pitching now for the love of the game and that’s pretty admirable in and of itself.
