March U.S. Treasury Bond (ZBH26) futures present a selling opportunity on more price weakness.
See on the daily bar chart for March U.S. T-Bond futures that prices are trending lower and have just hit a five-week low. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bearish posture as the blue MACD line is below the red trigger line and both lines are trending down.
Fundamentally, the marketplace the past week has taken a more hawkish read of the Federal Reserve. A U.S. interest rate cut in December is now not a done deal at all. The marketplace had previously reckoned a December rate cut was firmly in the cards. Hawkish “Fed speak” from Fed officials lately has bond market bulls pulling in their horns as U.S. inflation remains stubbornly sticky.
A move in March T-Bond futures below chart support at Monday’s low of 115 31/32 would give the bears more power and it would also become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 112 even or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just below, is located at 117 20/32.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
