Everything we know about football tells us that come Sunday afternoon at Wembley Stadium, the pressure should be weighing heaviest on Arsenal.
It has been the best part of six years since they lifted a major trophy, the FA Cup win that marked the end of Mikel Arteta’s dramatic first season in charge. Between the pandemic and a Europa League final halfway around the world, it has been eight years since the Emirates Stadium has decamped en masse for a big final with real stakes. They haven’t done so with something to celebrate at the end since 2017. An awful lot of them will never have seen Arsenal lift this particular trophy, last won back in the days of bypassed midfields, set-piece squabbles and English teams crashing out in Europe.
It has been 33 years without this prize for Arsenal. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, probably finds his EFL Cup medals when he’s rummaging down the back of the couch. With Manchester City, he has grabbed the lot. In the case of this particular prize, he’s gone back for second, third and fourth helpings. Surely he can let this one slide, give his former apprentice a slice of glory?
Not in the slightest. The simple reality is that it is much more important for Manchester City that they stop Arsenal winning this than for Arsenal that they add this prize to their trophy cabinet. After all, what is the great truism of the EFL Cup? That it sets the tone for the run-in. If there is even a scintilla of a chance that this might be true, then it is incumbent on Guardiola to stop Arsenal from getting the bit between their teeth.
Of course, Guardiola would downplay any suggestion that the ripple effect of this game will go much beyond Wembley Stadium this weekend. Speaking on Friday, he said, “I’ve learned that when there’s so many [games and competitions] you have to have the ability to forget and move forward.” For City, success after Sunday might only be aided by Arsenal being unable to get a loss at Wembley out of their heads.
Right now, Arsenal are the prohibitive favorite in the battle that matters most between these two. Nine points clear of Manchester City, who have a game in hand and a home meeting with the leaders to come, the Gunners have the lead and could rest assured in the knowledge that they have comfortably been the league’s best team this season. There is a reason why most analytics models have their chances of winning the Premier League at 95%-plus. It is their hands.
How does that sub-five percent chance increase? Probably by Arsenal getting into their heads about it. Imagine a fortnight of questions for Arteta’s side about how they’ve frittered away a shot at a quadruple, how they will cope when they next run into City, whether they have the mental fortitude of title winners. The noise has to penetrate the inner sanctums at London Colney. The players have to start believing it.
Maybe they wobble against Bournemouth, City gain ground with a win at Chelsea. Perhaps some of the other cup competitions give Arsenal that little bit more to worry about heading to the Etihad, where it is hammered home to them that they haven’t won since the days when Arteta was club captain, not manager. A loss, the gap further shrunk, and the five remaining games would seem a lifetime in north London.
This all seems a little implausible — there is no reason why a defeat in the EFL Cup wouldn’t have a rallying effect on an Arsenal side that last lost back-to-back games in May of last year — but that is what City have to deal in now if they are to snatch back the biggest prize left available to them this season. That too speaks to the pressure on this competition for Guardiola. If this slips away then the only paths to silverware go through Liverpool and perhaps Chelsea or Arsenal in the FA Cup or involve a remarkable winning run to close at the league season.
In other words, this is City’s best shot at a trophy. Arsenal have at least one better option than a game their manager says has no favorite or underdog.
Of course, there is a quadruple hanging over the discourse. Whatever you think of Arsenal’s football, their immortal status in English footballing consciousness would be assured if they won the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and EFL Cup. As it would be if, for instance, they reached a tally of 200 goals between now and the end of the season. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.
Arsenal might be the favorites in every competition but that does not mean they should be expected to win the lot. Going off bookmakers’ odds on Friday afternoon, the implied probability of Arteta’s side sweeping the board is around 5.5%. Talk to those with knowledge of the manager’s thinking and you get the sense that this simply isn’t a prospect that he is losing any sleep over.
Nor, it would seem, are his players. Arteta flashed a smile of studied ease when asked if quadruple fever was sweeping the dressing room. “We know that we need to go game by game and trophy by trophy,” he said.
Even the idea of this competition serving as a springboard for those to come was something that Arteta only offered a qualified agreement with. “You live the moment and the present that much. That’s the only focus that you can put in.
“Obviously, you can imagine how nice it would be on Sunday when you win it, and we are all together, and sharing with our fans, it will be a massive energy boost and belief for everybody, and that’s why we want it so much.”
That it has been so long since Arsenal were able to bask in glory with their supporters might mean that winning the EFL Cup would matter more to their players than City’s. In terms of need, though, there just should not be the pressure on the Gunners that there is on their opponents. They are set fair to win the big prizes. City’s best hope of stopping that might be snuffed out if they can’t find a way to win on Sunday.
Viewing information
- Date: Sunday, March 22 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Wembley Stadium — London
- Live stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Arsenal +130; Draw +210; Manchester City +200
