The revamped Pac-12 has a long road ahead if it wishes to reclaim the league’s prior status as a high-major conference in basketball. But now that rosters for the 2026-27 season are mostly settled, it’s clear the Pac-12 could — and probably should — function as the top non-major conference in college hoops.
While the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten and SEC operate a tier above the rest of the sport, the Pac-12 is well-positioned to be atop the next rung, which features several leagues that aspire to send multiple teams to an expanded NCAA Tournament.
San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State, Fresno State and Boise State are arriving amid a contentious split with the Mountain West, while Texas State is coming from the Sun Belt and Gonzaga is entering from the WCC. Those seven programs will join with Oregon State and Washington State from the old Pac-12 to form the retooled nine-team league
Using barttorvik.com‘s projections for the 2026-27 season as a guide, five of the Pac-12’s nine teams rank inside the top 100, headlined by No. 8 Gonzaga. The Zags have reached 27 consecutive NCAA Tournaments and have won at least one game in every Big Dance since 2008. After rising to national prominence in the WCC under 28th-year coach Mark Few, the Zags will be the bell cow of the new Pac-12.
Here is an early breakdown of how the mid-major conference hierarchy could look during the season ahead. Team rankings are from barttorvik.com.
1. Pac-12
Top teams
8. Gonzaga
51. San Diego State
64. Utah State
Sub-200 teams: none
The new Pac-12 resembles the old Mountain West as it includes San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State. The four were annually among the strongest squads in the Mountain West and helped usher in the conference’s greatest era. Between 2022 and 2025, the Mountain West sent four or more teams to the NCAA Tournament in four consecutive years, and those four schools were often among the dancing contingent.
A fifth former MWC school, Fresno State, brings no basketball value and will likely serve as dead weight on the hardwood. The same goes for Texas State, formerly of the Sun Belt. The Bobcats haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1997. Their inclusions are a reminder of how the Pac-12’s rebirth fractured the Group of Five (football) and mid-major (basketball) scene.
Quality hoops brands like New Mexico, Nevada and UNLV are still back in the Mountain West, and longtime Pac-12 tenants Oregon State and Washington State must prove their value after being left behind in realignment.
Thankfully, this league boasts an anchor tenant in Gonzaga that no other mid-major conference can come close to matching. The WCC was an annual two-horse race between the Zags and Saint Mary’s. Gonzaga will remain a heavy favorite to win its new league, but the Zags should be challenged more frequently throughout the course of a league slate that will likely feature a handful more Quad 1 and Quad 2 opportunities than the WCC did in most years.
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2. Atlantic 10
Top teams
49. VCU
65. Saint Louis
70. Dayton
Sub-200 teams: none
The A10 was a multi-bid league in every NCAA Tournament from 2006 to 2022. Between 2008 and 2018, the league sent three or more teams to the NCAA Tournament every year, highlighted by a run of four (2012), five (2013) and six (2014) tournament squads over a decade ago. Those days are over, as the A10 was only a one-bid league in 2023 and 2025. The league returned to two-bid status in 2026, but it needed VCU to win the A10 Tournament in order to achieve that designation.
Both of last year’s tournament squads — Saint Louis and VCU — did excellent work in retaining key players and should be formidable yet again. Dayton remains a perennially respectable program. George Mason has also taken a step forward under Tony Skinn, who is 70-31 (35-19) through three seasons. But a return to the A10’s 21st-century zenith seems impossible amid the current climate of roster spending, unlimited transferring and selective scheduling.
3. Mountain West
Top teams
54. Grand Canyon
66. New Mexico
84. Nevada
Sub-200 teams: UC Davis, Air Force
The Mountain West lost five programs, including four good ones, but the league still has a pulse. Grand Canyon, which is entering its second season in the MWC, is well-resourced and perennially successful under Bryce Drew. New Mexico and Nevada are also quality outfits, and UNLV has both history and potential. The financial realities of a football-driven market made it a no-go, but it’s a shame the Mountain West and Pac-12 couldn’t have figured out a way to merge for men’s hoops. A conference featuring the strongest basketball programs from both leagues would be loads of fun. As it is, the best mid-majors from the Mountain and Pacific time zones are splintered, and the Mountain West’s best days are behind it.
4. American
Top teams
63. Wichita State
87. South Florida
91. Tulsa
Sub-200 teams: UTSA, Rice
The arrival of Chris Mack at South Florida and Wes Miller at Charlotte adds some name recognition to the American’s coaching ranks. Will it be enough to juice up a floundering basketball league? Since Houston left for the Big 12 along with UCF and Cincinnati, the conference has slipped into oblivion. For the first time since its formation for the 2013-14 season, the AAC has been a one-bid league each of the past two seasons.
Memphis should be the league’s shining star, but the Tigers are coming off their worst season under coach Penny Hardaway, and Torvik’s projections aren’t a big fan of what the Tigers are doing with their 2026-27 roster. The league’s best hope is for Memphis to return to at-large territory. If that happens and Wichita State takes another step forward following a 24-win season, the American can take a leap back toward relevance.
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5. WCC
Top teams
61. Saint Mary’s
98. Santa Clara
116. Loyola Marymount
Sub-200 teams: none
This league’s streak of seven consecutive multi-bid NCAA Tournaments is in grave danger of being snapped in 2027. Between Gonzaga’s departure for the Pac-12 and Randy Bennett’s departure for Arizona State, it’s the end of an era for the WCC. If former Saint Mary’s player and assistant Mickey McConnell is able to carry on the Saint Mary’s tradition, the Gaels could be the league’s new dominant force. But Herb Sendek has Santa Clara well-positioned to claim some of the market share now available amid a period of upheaval in a league that must find a new identity without Gonzaga and without Bennett.
6. Missouri Valley
Top teams
95. Illinois Chicago
100. Murray State
104. Illinois State
Sub-200 teams: Southern Illinois, Evansville
Belmont would have been part of the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation had the field been at 76 teams in 2026. The Bruins suffered a stunning quarterfinal loss to Drake in the conference tournament, which dropped them to 26-6 and opened the door for Northern Iowa to claim the league’s only bid to the Big Dance. Now Belmont’s Casey Alexander (Kansas State) and UNI’s Ben Jacobson (Utah State) are on to new gigs, leaving Illinois Chicago in prime position to capitalize during the season ahead.
The league’s chances of sending multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament feel tenuous at best, but Murray State is another program heading in the right direction under ex-Creighton assistant Ryan Miller.
