NFL Week 12 kicks off with an AFC showdown in the Lone Star State, as the 5-5 Houston Texans welcome Josh Allen and the 7-3 Buffalo Bills to town. The Texans are coming off their second straight victory, a 16-13 win against division rival Tennessee Titans, while the Bills emerged on the right side of a 44-32 shootout with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It will be Davis Mills under center again for the Texans, as C.J. Stroud will miss a second straight start due to his concussion. Mills is 2-0 this season as a starter and is averaging 283 passing yards per game. He’s scored four total touchdowns, thrown one interception, but also been sacked six times in those contests.
The Bills got back to their winning ways last week in a game that featured nine lead changes, but they are still 1.5 games behind the surprising New England Patriots in the AFC East. Between facing a backup quarterback and a bottom-10 rushing attack, this is a big opportunity for Buffalo.
Let’s break down this week’s edition of “Thursday Night Football,” but first, here’s how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Bills vs. Texans live
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 20 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium — Houston, Texas
- Stream: Prime
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Bills -5.5; O/U 43.5 (via FanDuel)
Bills vs. Texans: Need to know
- Davis Mills struggled in his one start vs. Buffalo. While Mills has been winning as of late, his one career start vs. the Bills back in 2021 was a disaster. He completed 11 of 21 passes for 87 yards, zero touchdowns and a career-high four interceptions in a 40-0 loss.
- Josh Allen has bad luck in Houston. Allen has an 83-37 record as a starter in the regular season, but he’s had bad luck in H-Town. The Bills have lost on walk-off field goals in Houston twice when Allen has started.
- Bills run defense is an issue. The Bills have the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL, allowing 169.7 yards per game. However, the run defense is a major problem. Buffalo allows the second-most rushing yards per game with 153.0, and has allowed six rushing touchdowns of 30 or more yards this season — which are tied for the most through 10 games in NFL history.
- Best defense in the NFL? Many believe the Denver Broncos have the best defense in the NFL, but that title may belong to the Texans. Houston allows a league-low 258.1 total yards per game, and are the stingiest when it comes to putting points on the board at 16.3 per game. And that 16.3 is the fewest allowed through 10 games by a team without a winning record since 2003! Houston has allowed fewer than 20 points in seven of 10 games this season.
- Not-ready-for-prime-time players? The Bills are 2-2 in prime time this season, but have lost their last two night games. The Texans on the other hand have lost both of their prime-time matchups this year.
Bills vs. Texans prediction, pick
Allen may not love playing in Houston, but he certainly likes playing on Thursdays. Allen has the best Thursday record (8-0) by a starting quarterback since 1950. He’s scored 290 total touchdowns in his career, which are the most all-time by a player 30-years-old or younger, and has the most total touchdowns in the NFL this season with 28. All that to say, he’s good enough to rise above this vaunted Texans defense.
The Texans mounted an impressive comeback against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10 and found a way to win in Tennessee last Sunday despite not scoring a single point in the first half, but the Bills are a different kind of test. Buffalo covers the spread in prime time. Pick: Bills -5.5; Under 43.5
