What’s wrong with Commanders? Why Washington is struggling and why turnaround might not be coming

Dan Quinn did not need to say a lot after the Commanders’ 44-22 loss to the Cowboys to ship a message.

Is he stunned by the place his 3-4 Commanders stand to date this season?

“Sure. Very.”

And what of that sequence earlier than halftime, during which the Cowboys adopted a Commanders landing by going 72 yards in simply 4 performs and 35 seconds to attain a landing of their very own?

“Phrases can’t clarify. I used to be sizzling.”

Maybe that sequence greatest encapsulates the Commanders proper now. One step ahead comes with two steps again. The gamers, Quinn admitted, are mad, too. However they have been additionally mad after a 25-24 “Monday Evening Soccer” loss to the Bears during which the offense dedicated three turnovers and the protection bought shredded on the bottom.

Anger, it seems, solely goes to date. The Commanders are struggling on each side of the ball with a plethora of points, some solvable, others probably not, and never trying something just like the crew that went to the NFC Championship Sport final yr.

A 3-4 document shouldn’t be a dying sentence. However that is no common 3-4 document. Washington misplaced Jayden Daniels to a hamstring harm that can require an MRI on Monday. Although Quinn was adamant this loss was not a product of any accidents, the Commanders have been already down their high three vast receivers — Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel and Noah Brown — and have misplaced a number of different key gamers, too. A have a look at the schedule reveals issues solely get tougher.

A crew making a convention championship sport one yr and fully lacking the postseason the subsequent shouldn’t be that unusual. Actually, the Bengals did it simply final season. The Commanders are operating out of time to keep away from the identical destiny, and for a number of the identical causes.

Protection has crumbled

The gist of the Commanders protection is fairly easy. If the go rush can have an effect, the unit as a complete can survive. If it may possibly’t, the secondary cannot maintain up.

Security Quan Martin is permitting 24.9 yards per goal as the first defender, which is 6.6 yards increased than anybody else who has been the first defender on at the least 20 passes this season. These will not be all the time good metrics, however one can see Martin as the first defender on this CeeDee Lamb landing …

… one week after he was the first defender (and the one who missed the sort out) on this 55-yarder to D’Andre Swift.

This isn’t to bash Martin, however moderately illustrate a bigger level: The Commanders are giving up far too many massive performs. Washington has allowed 5 passes of fifty+ yards this season, most within the NFL. Each of the clips above are in that class. They’ve additionally allowed 14 passes of 25+ yards, tied for fourth-most within the NFL.

“It is very irritating,” Quinn mentioned. “We’re gonna have a look at all the things, man. We’re going to have a look at all the things.”

He will not be hard-pressed to seek out points, however he may be hard-pressed to seek out options. Cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Mike Sainristil are struggling.

• Lattimore has allowed 15 receptions that lead to first downs, tied for fifth-most amongst all cornerbacks. His 14.9 yards allowed per completion can be among the many place’s worst, and his six defensive penalties are tied for second-most by any participant within the NFL.
• Sainristil has two interceptions however has additionally allowed two touchdowns and 13 receptions leading to first downs.

Lattimore is a significant disappointment contemplating all of the Commanders moved to accumulate him ultimately yr’s commerce deadline. He missed vital time final yr with a hamstring harm and struggled when he was on the sector, and he’s struggling once more this yr. When the cornerbacks and safeties are struggling, it is robust to get stops.

Rush protection up and down

Washington’s rush protection had a really sturdy begin to the season however has struggled since. From Weeks 1-4, the Commanders allowed 3.6 yards per carry, the sixth-best charge within the league. In three weeks since, they’re permitting 5.3 yards per carry, fifth-worst within the league. Sunday, Washington allowed 152 yards on 31 carries, with Javonte Williams rumbling for 116 yards on simply 19 carries.

Washington has been a poor tackling crew all season, and that has resulted in opponents averaging 3.1 yards per carry after contact, a bottom-10 charge amongst all defenses.

Much like the Lattimore state of affairs, Washington hoped issues could be a lot improved this yr. The crew introduced in a number of free brokers to enhance the depth. However accidents have worn away that depth, and the group is getting pushed round.

Jayden Daniels’ efficiency and the affect of the accidents round him

It would be simple see the 3-4 document and level to Daniels. It could even be inaccurate. Lots of Daniels’ numbers are just like what they have been final yr. Sure, his completion share is down, however he is been the sufferer of the NFL’s highest drop charge (8.2%); the truth is, his off-target throw charge is down. He has a decrease yards per try this yr, however it’s not drastically decrease. He has a decrease damaging play charge and interception charge this yr than he did final yr. His scrambling numbers aren’t vastly completely different.

Daniels has performed 203 performs this season. He has had his high three wideouts — McLaurin, Samuel and Brown — on the sector for 32 of them. McLaurin’s absence for the final 4 video games has been notably noticeable, as Washington is having hassle getting the downfield and intermediate passing sport going. After finishing 61% of his throws 10-20 yards downfield final yr, Daniels is right down to 48% this yr. It is simply not as well-versed of a passing assault, and groups are starting to play extra aggressively understanding they do not have to fret about harmful weapons on the skin. 

Regression hitting arduous

Greater than something, the Commanders, who introduced again an analogous crew in lots of areas, have regressed to the imply. Final yr, Washington was sixth in third-down conversion charge. It’s twenty fifth this yr. Final yr, Washington transformed 87% of its fourth downs, one of many highest charges on document. This yr, it’s at 56%, barely under common.

If you dwell within the small margins like that — and the NFL is stuffed with small margins — slight variances occur. The Commanders went 8-4 in one-possession video games final yr. They’re 0-2 this yr. Final yr’s protection was really worse than this yr’s protection on a down-by-down foundation, however this yr’s struggles stopping massive performs far outweigh the down-to-down enchancment. The offense, however, is committing the mistaken sort of massive performs — turnovers (eight this yr, 14 all of final yr) — at a a lot, a lot increased charge.

If Martin makes that sort out on Swift or Daniels does not fumble on a 3rd and 1, the Commanders are 4-3, and this text does not exist. In a season of 1000’s of performs, a handful right here or there make huge variations, and this yr, the Commanders have not made these performs in essential instances.

There’s additionally regression within the harm division — Washington had the fifth-best harm luck final yr, per Aaron Schatz’s Adjusted Games Lost — and the schedule. Washington is not taking part in the schedule of the second-worst crew within the NFL this yr. After they have performed these groups, they’ve gained.

However the “simpler” a part of the season is already over, and now the Commanders embark on a brutal three-week stretch: on the Chiefs, in opposition to the Seahawks, in opposition to the Lions. There is not any place to cover, no “get-right” sport. Their quarterback is injured for the second time this yr, and his supporting forged has been injured primarily all yr.

“It does not matter who you’ve gotten or who’s out when you do not give your self an actual probability at it,” Quinn mentioned. “From turnover margin to penalties to missed tackles and drops, Dallas beat us, and we beat ourself as nicely. We are the ones that bought ourself into the outlet, and we’re the identical ones that gotta dig ourself out, however make no mistake, we’re not taking part in to the usual we have set.”