Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson averages the most receiving yards per game in NFL history (93.5), and while he’s been lucky enough to play around talented starting quarterbacks the majority of his career, much of his success comes from his pure individual talent. Jefferson will need to rely on his natural playmaking ability with the Vikings moving down the depth chart at quarterback due to injuries, starting undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer on Sunday against the Seahawks. Jefferson’s receiving yards over/under has plummeted to 54.5 yards, and although a drop is expected with Brosmer at quarterback, the SportsLine Machine Learning Model views this as too much of an overreaction for someone with Jefferson’s ability. The model has Jefferson Over 54.5 receiving yards as one of its top picks for Week 13 NFL prop betting on Sunday.
Along with Jefferson’s Over, the model is also backing 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy Over 197.5 passing yards, while playing Over 59.5 rushing yards for Panthers running back Rico Dowdle in its best bets for Week 13 NFL player props. The 49ers play the Browns, who have the No. 2 passing defense in the NFL, but Purdy has thrown for at least 200 yards in three of four starts this season, and the model views Purdy’s lower over/under as an overreaction as well, making him a top NFL betting option in Week 13 NFL player prop bets.
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Built using cutting-edge artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques by SportsLine’s Data Science team, AI Predictions and AI Ratings are generated for each player prop.
Best Week 13 NFL player prop picks:
- Brock Purdy, 49ers, Over 197.5 passing yards (-115)
- Rico Dowdle, Panthers, Over 59.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Justin Jefferson, Vikings, Over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
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Brock Purdy, 49ers, Over 197.5 passing yards (-115)
It’s rare to see Purdy at a number this low, and that’s due to a combination of playing the No. 2 passing defense in the NFL and Purdy coming off one of the lowest yardage totals of his career last week. Purdy threw for just 193 yards on 6.0 yards per attempt against the Panthers on Monday Night Football, but he threw for at least 200 yards in each of his previous three starts. The 49ers play the Browns, who have the No. 2 passing defense in the NFL at 170.7 passing yards allowed per game, but Geno Smith threw for 285 yards last week against Cleveland, which is 70 yards more than his average this season. The 49ers’ offense continues to become healthier with the passing weeks, and Purdy has plenty of strong playmakers in George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey. The model projects 244 passing yards for Purdy on Sunday.
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Rico Dowdle, Panthers, Over 59.5 rushing yards (-114)
Dowdle has gone Under this number in three straight weeks, but he’s still the same back who had at least 130 rushing yards in three contests over a four-game stretch. The Panthers surprisingly gave Dowdle just six carries last week, and they scored nine points with just one touchdown with the formula, so there’s reason to expect a change this weekend. The Panthers play the Rams, who have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, but they allowed 4.2 yards per carry to the Tampa Bay running backs last week. With a likely increased workload ahead, the model projects Dowdle for 76 rushing yards on Sunday.
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Justin Jefferson, Vikings, Over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Vikings have not had the most consistent quarterback play throughout Jefferson’s tenure, yet he’s the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game (93.5). Jefferson has caught passes from quarterbacks such as Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall at points over the last four seasons, with Minnesota quarterbacks seeming to consistently face injuries. This leaves the Vikings turning to an undrafted rookie free agent on Sunday. Max Brosmer may just decide to pepper his WR1 with a massive amount of targets, which wouldn’t be the worst strategy, ahead of a matchup against the Seahawks. Jefferson’s lower over/under makes sense with Brosmer’s unknowns, however, the model views this number as too low, projecting arguably the best receiver in the league to still finish with 66 receiving yards.
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Want more Week 13 NFL picks?
You’ve seen the model’s NFL picks for some popular NFL player props for Week 13. Now, get NFL Week 13 projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see the model’s best bets for every Week 13 NFL game, including 49ers vs. Browns, Bills vs. Steelers and Broncos vs. Commanders. Finally, SportsLine expert RJ White, who is 125-97-3 (+2395) over his last 225 NFL picks, has locked in multiple Week 13 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.
Want more huge paydays? The model has also built a five-leg Week 13 NFL parlay that would pay almost 25-1. Check out the model’s Week 13 NFL parlay only at SportsLine. Visit SportsLine to see the parlay.
