Just like that, despite a last gasp at hope with Erling Haaland finding the back of the net against Bournemouth, a second consecutive season has come to an end for Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City without winning the title. That 1-1 draw was enough for Mikel Arteta to seal a title victory for Arsenal after Arne Slot led Liverpool to the Premier League title last season. Not only is this just the fourth time in the last 10 seasons that City has failed to lift the title, but it’s also only the second time since 2015-17 that City have gone two consecutive seasons without winning the league.
What changed during that time? Guardiola joined City, and 18 major trophies followed him at the Etihad Stadium. And now, it’s all expected to come to an end when this season comes to a close, with his former assistant Enzo Maresca expected to replace him. It’ll be the most decorated period by any manager at City and will leave Maresca with big shoes to fill, but he also has experience in a pressure cooker, leading Chelsea to Champions League soccer, a FIFA Club World Cup title, and a Europa Conference League title.
But what will Maresca or whoever the manager is that oversees City need to do next season to overcome Arsenal?
During the past two seasons, City have lost the inevitability that came with their matches as teams began to stop fearing them, but it’s also true that both Arsenal and Liverpool had to have essentially perfect Premier League campaigns in order to overcome City’s financial might. Barring a drastic implosion on the final day of play, Arsenal will have one of the stoutest defenses in Premier League history while also taking advantage of set play dominance to make up for their lack of depth at the striker position. Meanwhile, the City attack was essentially carried by two people in Erling Haaland and Antoine Semnyo, and while they did as much as they could, there are only so many minutes to go around, and everyone does need a rest sometimes.
Here’s what City must do.
Help in an attack
Semenyo’s season has been nothing short of incredible. It can be normal for forwards to outperform their expected goals for portions of the season, but Semenyo has outrun analytics all season. Some of that is due to how strong he is at taking shots from distance and the fact that City are able to play him into good positions, but in all competitions, he has 20 goals from an xG of 13.79 between Bournemouth and City.
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Semenyo has been consistent with outrunning analytics, and while even with regression, he’ll still be massive for this side. The issue is that City can’t afford regression from anyone. Erling Haaland scored 38 of City’s 122 goals in all competitions, while Phil Foden, Semenyo, and Rayan Cherki each chipped in 10 apiece for City. Without someone improving their output, Haaland will need to play yet another 4000-minute season after also going to the World Cup with Norway.
That’s a lot to ask, even if a player is a machine. Saying that a team that has spent extravagantly in the past will need to spend again isn’t groundbreaking, but it is the reality that City are faced with heading into the summer. Haaland and Rodri are still the most irreplaceable players in the team, and that can’t continue to be the case if City look to win a string of four consecutive Premier League titles in a row again. In a way, things like this show you just how hard it is to accomplish what Guardiola has in the Premier League, but now that he has set this standard, someone will be expected to do it yet again.
How to make defending repeatable?
Defensively, the addition of Marc Guehi has helped settle the squad, while Nico O’Reilly is one of the breakout stars from the second half of the season, but it will also get tougher moving forward with Guardiola not managing the squad. The way that he has revolutionized tactics utilizing inverted wing backs and unconventional formations has rubbed off on Maresca, but the Italian is not Guardiola, and if he tries to do that instead of turning City into a club in his own image, it could be doomed from the start. There is immense trust being placed in Maresca to be the next coach of the squad, and he can use that for why he should make it as he sees fit, but they’ll need to be able to go out with Rodri and win big games.
Multiple midfielders were purchased to try and help with that issue, but for one reason or another, it hasn’t stuck, so there’s yet another offseason coming where midfield could be at the top of the list. Maybe he can pry Enzo Fernandez from Chelsea as they would go a long way to pushing City back to the top. There isn’t a magic potion that can make a team unbeatable through 50-plus games, as Guardiola showed that even the best plans have an expiration date, but this is the perfect time for a refresh, and who knows, another era of dominance may not be far out if the right buttons are pushed.
