UFC 327 goes down Saturday in Miami with a big light heavyweight championship bout anchoring the card. In that main event, Jiri Prochazka will face Carlos Ulberg for the championship vacated by Alex Pereira.
Prochazka is one of the most unique fighters in the game, unleashing a steady flurry of wild offense while often taking significant damage. It’s a risky style, but one that has worked well for Prochazka, leading him to a previous stint as light heavyweight champion and a 6-2 UFC record.
Ulberg dropped his UFC debut when he was knocked out by Kennedy Nzechukwu. Since then, Ulberg has rattled off nine straight wins, most recently knocking out Dominick Reyes to earn his first opportunity at UFC gold.
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“I put it this way, I’m climbing a mountain, and I want to get to the top of the mountain,” Ulberg told CBS Sports this week. “I know when I get to that top of that mountain, there’s going to be another mountain. So, for me, I just do what I need to do, handle business. When I get to that top, I’m not really satisfied. I’m not really satisfied, you know? So, I might celebrate, but I know there’s a bigger task to be done. I know there’s something more to be done. And that’s the whole reason of being in the UFC. It’s not to just be here and take part. It’s really just to just be the best. To be the best and to prove that I’m the best. To make sure that I prove to myself, prove to everyone that I’m the best.”
With such a big fight anchoring the card, there will be plenty of interest in the fights at the sportsbooks. With that in mind, we’ve once again looked at all five main card fights to identify our best bets for each.
After going 3-2 in our best bets for UFC 326, we are sitting at 8-7 for the year. Now we look ahead to this weekend, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at this week’s picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr
Method of victory: KO/TKO/DQ (+105)
For years, Swanson has been a “Huh, he’s still around?” guy. That ends on Saturday when Swanson takes part in his retirement fight. The odds are close pretty much everywhere, with Landwehr a small -115 favorite and the fight going over 2.5 rounds at -120. The way both men fight should produce a fairly action-packed stand-up fight and I can see Swanson opening up even more than normal, wanting to end his career on a high. Landwehr has been stopped by strikes four times in his career, including in his two most recent fights. Swanson has three TKO losses on his record, but two came in his six most recent fights, and the 42-year-old has been out of action since December 2024. Odds are high these two stand and trade before someone crumbles.
Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker
Under 1.5 rounds (-210)
This is a tricky fight because both men are so flawed. After deserving a win over Jon Jones that was taken from him by the judges, Reyes went on to lose three more fights, and was knocked out in each. He managed to rebound and pull his career back from the brink, but that three-fight winning streak felt a little thin, and then he was knocked out again, this time by Ulberg in a de facto title eliminator. Walker stormed into the UFC with his wild style and picked up three knockouts, two in less than a minute. Since then, Walker is just 5-6 and has been knocked out four times. How do you rely on either of these men, both glass cannons, in a betting sense? The best option is to lean into the tendencies and pick the fight to end before the halfway point.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit
Curtis Blaydes moneyline (-125)
I was initially all-in on Blaydes, but that shifted slightly when I really dug into what Blaydes has done in recent years. You have to go back more than four years for the last “complete” Blaydes performance (his TKO win over Chris Daukaus). Since then, Blaydes’ wins include Tom Aspinall in a fight where Aspinall was injured 15 seconds after the opening bell, Jailton Almeida in a fight Blaydes was losing after the first round and Rizvan Kuniev by a highly debatable split decision. Sprinkled in are knockout losses to Sergei Pavlovich and Aspinall in the rematch. With that context, my confidence in Blaydes is shaken. Hokit has the skills to win this fight, with fast hands, good power and a strong wrestling base. Experience is still a factor, however, and Blaydes has been in big fights against elite fighters while Hokit has just eight pro fights and his lone UFC bouts came against Max Gimenis and Denzel Freeman, not exactly household names. We will roll with Blaydes, though with hesitation, and possibly because of Hokit’s abrasive act.
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa
Azamat Murzakanov moneyline (-205)
Costa is fighting at light heavyweight for the second time in his career, the first coming in a 2021 loss to Marvin Vettori before a return to middleweight. Costa is just 2-4 since 2020, but the losses have come against fighters ranging from good to great. Moving to light heavyweight probably isn’t the solution for Costa’s woes, and he is getting a very tough assignment in Murzakanov, who has gone 6-0 in the Octagon, with five wins by KO or TKO. While Costa has always shown a good chin despite poor defense, Murzakanov has true light heavyweight power, which Costa has not felt in his career. This should be the Russian’s night.
Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg
Jiri Prochazka via KO/TKO/DQ (+140)
There’s no such thing as a “normal” Prochazka fight. He will make horrible defensive mistakes and often finds himself rocked and seemingly on the verge of a loss, but only Alex Pereira has managed to defeat Prochazka since he entered the UFC. Ulberg is the more contained, technical and reasonable fighter, but he has his own flaws and only defends strikes slightly better than Prochazka (45% strike defense for Prochazka to 51% for Ulberg). Prochazka has been in the deepest waters available several times over and has bigger one-shot power than Ulberg. Because of that, we’ll ride for another wild Prochazka victory.
Who wins Prochazka vs. Ulberg, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 19, 2018, and find out.
