UCL scenarios: Napoli in trouble; Barca, Chelsea looking for top eight

Only one day remains in the league phase of the Champions League as teams will have everything to play for next Wednesday, Jan. 28. You can find all the action on Paramount+ as the top 24 teams will be decided, with eight teams heading home. Only Arsenal and Bayern Munich have clinched their places in the round of 16, but the top spot of the league phase is up for grabs. There are also nine spots in the knockout stages to be clinched on the final day of action, and it’s anyone’s guess who will secure them. 

Four teams have been eliminated from contention for the knockouts in Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal, and Kairat Almaty, but there’s a pretty big team on the outside looking in as things stand. Antonio Conte’s Napoli, the reigning Scudetto holders in Italy, would be out of the Champions League if things ended today. Luckily, that’s not the case, but with a looming date with Chelsea on the horizon, Napoli must win to make the knockouts, and even if they do, they’ll still need help. 

But what does every team need on the final day of action?

Tiebreakers

If teams are level on points following the end of the league phase, this is how tiebreakers will be applied:

1. Overall goal difference
2. Goals scored in all league matches
3. Away goals scored in all league matches
4. Total wins
5. Away wins
6. Strength of schedule, includes points, goal difference and goals scored of all opponents faced in league phase
7. Fewer disciplinary points, one point for a yellow card, three points for a red card, and three points for two yellow cards
8. Higher overall ranking in the UEFA Club Coefficient

Arsenal

• Points: 18
• Goal difference: +18
• Remaining game: Kairat (h)
• Can clinch top spot in the league phase with: At least a point in their final match, or Bayern Munich dropping points. If Arsenal lose and Bayern win, it will go to tiebreakers. 
• Can make the top eight with: Arsenal have clinched a place in the round of 16.
• Can make knockouts with: Arsenal have clinched a place in the top 24.

Bayern Munich

• Points: 18
• Goal difference: +13
• Remaining game: PSV (a)
• Can clinch top spot in the league phase with: A win over PSV and an Arsenal loss to Kairat Almaty, then winning out on tiebreakers.
• Can make the top eight with: Bayern have clinched a place in the round of 16.
• Can make knockouts with: Bayern have clinched a place in the top 24.

Real Madrid

• Points: 15
• Goal difference: +11
• Remaining game: Benfica (a)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Benfica or at least four of PSG, Newcastle United, Sporting CP, Barcelona, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, or Atalanta failing to win.
• Can make knockouts with: Real Madrid have clinched a place in the top 24.

Liverpool

• Points: 15
• Goal difference: +6
• Remaining game: Qarabag (h)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Qarabag or at least four of PSG, Newcastle United, Sporting CP, Barcelona, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, or Atalanta failing to win.
• Can make knockouts with: Liverpool have clinched a place in the top 24.

Tottenham

• Points: 14
• Goal difference: +8
• Remaining game: Eintracht Frankfurt (a)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Eintracht Frankfurt or a draw and eight of the teams between sixth and 16th failing to win.
• Can make knockouts with: Tottenham have clinched a place in the top 24.

Paris Saint-Germain

• Points: 13
• Goal difference: +10
• Remaining game: Newcastle United (h)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Newcastle United in their final match and beating out teams who are level on tiebreakers if needed or a loss/draw and teams between seventh and 18th failing to catch them.
• Can make knockouts with: PSG have clinched a place in the top 24.

Newcastle United

• Points: 13
• Goal difference: +10
• Remaining game: PSG (a)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over PSG and beating out the teams who are level on tiebreakers if needed or a loss/draw and teams between eighth and 18th failing to catch them.
• Can make knockouts with: Newcastle United have clinched a place in the top 24.

Chelsea

• Points: 13
• Goal difference: +6
• Remaining game: Napoli (a)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Napoli and beating out the teams around them on tiebreakers or a loss/draw and teams between ninth and 18th failing to catch them.
• Can make knockouts with: Chelsea have clinched a place in the top 24.

Barcelona

• Points: 13
• Goal difference: +5
• Remaining game: Copenhagen (h)
• Can make the top eight with: A win or a draw against Copenhagen, bettering the results of the teams around them, and winning out on tiebreakers if needed.
• Can make knockouts with: Barcelona has clinched a spot in the top 24.

Sporting CP

• Points: 13
• Goal difference: +5
• Remaining game: Athletic Club (a)
• Can make the top eight with:  A win or a draw against Athletic Club, bettering the results of the teams around them, and winning out on tiebreakers if needed.
• Can make knockouts with: Securing at least three points in their final two matches.

Manchester City

• Points: 13
• Goal difference: +4
• Remaining game
• : Galatasaray (h)
• Can make the top eight with:  A win or a draw against Galatasaray, bettering the results of the teams around them, and winning out on tiebreakers if needed.
• Can make knockouts with: Manchester City have clinched a place in the top 24.

Atletico Madrid

• Points: 13
• Goal difference: +3
• Remaining game: Bodo/Glimt (a)
• Can make the top eight with:  A win or a draw against Bodo/Glimt, bettering the results of the teams around them, and winning out on tiebreakers if needed.
• Can make knockouts with: At least three points in their final two matches.

Atalanta

• Points: 13
• Goal difference: +1
• Remaining game: Union Saint-Gilloise (a)
• Can make the top eight with:  A win or a draw against Union Saint-Gilloise, bettering the results of the teams around them, and winning out on tiebreakers if needed.
• Can make knockouts with: Atalanta have clinched a place in the top 24.

Inter 

• Points: 12
• Goal difference: +6
• Remaining game: Dortmund (h)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Borussia Dortmund and bettering the results of those around them or a draw and winning out on tiebreakers.
• Can make knockouts with: Inter have secured a place in the top 24.

Juventus

• Points: 12
• Goal difference: +4
• Remaining game: Monaco (a)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Monaco and bettering the results of those around them or a draw and winning out on tiebreakers.
• Can make knockouts with: Juventus have secured a place in the top 24.

Borussia Dortmund

• Points: 11
• Goal difference: +4
• Remaining game: Inter (h)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Inter and bettering the result of the teams ahead of them.
• Can make knockouts with: A point in their final match or the teams behind them dropping points.

Galatasaray

• Points: 10
• Goal difference: 0
• Remaining game: Manchester City (a)
• Can make knockouts with: Defeating Manchester City in their final match or the teams around them failing to catch them. 
• Eliminated with: A loss to Manchester City and the teams behind them bettering their result.

Qarabag 

• Points: 10
• Goal difference: -2
• Remaining game: Liverpool (a)
• Can make knockouts with: Defeating Liverpool in their final match or the teams around them failing to catch them. 
• Eliminated with: A loss to Liverpool and teams behind them bettering their result.

Marseille

• Points: Nine
• Goal difference: 0
• Remaining game: Club Brugge (a)
• Can make knockouts with: A win against Club Brugge or a draw and bettering the results of the teams around them.
• Eliminated with: A loss to Club Bruge and teams around them, bettering their result.

Bayer Leverkusen

• Points: Nine
• Goal difference: -4
• Remaining game: Villarreal (h)
• Can make knockouts with: A win against Villarreal or a draw and bettering the results of the teams around them.
• Eliminated with: A loss to Villarreal and teams around them, bettering their result.

Monaco

• Points: Nine
• Goal difference: -6
• Remaining game: Juventus (a)
• Can make knockouts with: A win against Juventus or a draw and bettering the results of the teams around them.
• Eliminated with: A loss to Juventus and teams around them, bettering their result.

PSV

• Points: Eight
• Goal difference: +1
• Remaining game: Bayern Munich (h)
• Can make the top eight with: A win over Bayern Munich and beating the results of the teams around them, or a loss/ draw and squeaking through on tiebreakers.
• Can make knockouts with: A loss or draw to Bayern Munich and losing out in tiebreakers, or the teams around them picking up points.

Athletic Club

• Points: Eight
• Goal difference: -4
• Remaining game: Sporting CP (h)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Sporting CP and beating the results of the teams around them, or a loss/ draw and squeaking through on tiebreakers.
• Eliminated with: A loss or draw to Sporting CP and losing out in tiebreakers, or the teams around them picking up points.

Olympiacos

• Points: Eight
• Goal difference: -5
• Remaining game: Ajax (a)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Ajax and beating the results of the teams around them, or a loss/ draw and squeaking through on tiebreakers.
• Eliminated with: A loss or draw to Ajax and losing out in tiebreakers, or the teams around them picking up points.

Napoli

• Points: Eight
• Goal difference: -5
• Remaining game: Chelsea (h)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Chelsea and beating the results of the teams around them, or a loss/ draw and squeaking through on tiebreakers.
• Eliminated with: A loss or draw to Chelsea and losing out on tiebreakers.

Copenhagen

• Points: Eight
• Goal difference: -6
• Remaining game: Barcelona (a)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Barcelona and beating the results of the teams around them or a loss/ draw and squeaking through on tiebreakers.
• Eliminated with: A loss or draw to Barcelona and losing out on tiebreakers.

Club Brugge

• Points: Seven
• Goal difference: 0
• Remaining game: Marseille (h)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Marseille and bettering the results of the teams around them or a draw and a lot of help on tiebreakers. 
• Eliminated with:  A loss to Marseille.

Bodo/Glimt

• Points: Six
• Goal difference: -2
• Remaining game: Atletico Madrid (a)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Atletico Madrid and bettering the results of the teams around them.
• Eliminated with:  A loss or draw to Atletico Madrid.

Benfica

• Points: Six
• Remaining game: Real Madrid (h)
• Goal difference: -4
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Real Madrid and bettering the results of the teams around them.
• Eliminated with: A loss or draw to Real Madrid.

Pafos

• Points: Six
• Goal difference: -4
• Remaining game: Slavia Prague (h)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Slavia Prague and bettering the results of the teams around them.
• Eliminated with: A loss or draw to Slavia Prague

Union Saint-Gilloise 

• Points: Six
• Goal difference: -10
• Remaining game: Atalanta (h)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Atalanta and bettering the results of the teams around them.
• Eliminated with: A loss or draw to Atalanta

Ajax

• Points: Six
• Goal difference: – 12
• Remaining game: Olympiacos (h)
• Can make knockouts with: A win over Olympiacos and bettering the results of the teams around them.
• Eliminated with: A loss or draw to Olympiacos.

Eintracht Frankfurt

• Points: Four
• Remaining game: Tottenham (h)
• Eliminated from knockout contention.

Slavia Prague

• Points: Three
• Remaining game: Pafos (a)
• Eliminated from knockout contention.

Villarreal

• Points:  One
• Remaining game: Bayer Leverkusen (a)
• Eliminated from knockout contention.

Kairat Almaty

• Points: One
• Remaining game: Arsenal (a)
• Eliminated from knockout contention.

Full Champions League standings