And then there were 24 teams remaining. A wild finish to the Champions League league phase has set the bracket for the knockouts, and Jose Mourinho’s Benfica have snuck in to cause chaos. Arsenal became the first team to finish the league phase a perfect eight for eight, as the Gunners have risen to become the favorites to win the entire tournament. But after Arenal, who has the next best shot at taking home a European crown?
That means it’s time to take on the unenviable task of combing through a lot of similar teams to build out tiers of contention, so let’s get rolling:
The one true contender
Arsenal
As the first team to finish with a perfect eight wins from eight in the league phase, Arsenal belong in a tier of their own when ranking the contenders for the Champions League crown. While a rotated side did concede two goals to Kairat Almaty on the final day of league phase play, the Gunners still finished with the best defensive record, allowing only four goals in eight games. Arsenal have been able to adapt their style to compete in various match scenarios, which is a credit to both Mikel Arteta’s management and the depth of a strong squad.
In a tier of their own
Bayern Munich
While Bayern didn’t get a chance to face Arsenal in Champions League play, this squad is not to be overlooked. They may have lost their undefeated record in the Bundesliga, but they also got Jamal Musiala back from injury to add to their loaded attack. Harry Kane has been one of the best forwards in the world, but alongside Serge Gnabry and Michael Olise, Vincent Kompany is spoiled for riches in setting up his side. He even has depth in midfield, while the defense has done just enough to keep things ticking over. Bayern are more of a 1A and 1B contender scenario with Arsenal
With some help, it could happen
Liverpool, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Inter, PSG, Manchester City
Now we get to the groups, and this tier is one where each team has questions to answer if they’re to win the Champions League. Liverpool have been excellent in this competition, but it feels like their Premier League woes will start to catch up to them sooner than later. Chelsea have improved under Liam Rosenior, and with a healthy Cole Palmer, no one will want to face the Blues in the knockouts. Barcelona haven’t been able to get things going until they fall behind in games. Alvaro Arbeloa’s Real Madrid are very much a work in progress. Inter have lost some of their magic. Injuries and playing so much soccer last season seems to be catching up to PSG, and Manchester City’s hopes rest in Marc Guehi steadying their defense. Any of these things can be fixed by February, giving these teams a chance at winning it all, but there’s a reason why eight teams ended with between 14 – 16 points in the league phase. After the top two, things are very much fluid.
Not a top team but on the right track
Newcastle United
I didn’t know what to make of the Magpies. They had one of the toughest schedules of any team in the league phase and will be tested after losing to Barcelona and drawing PSG, but it also feels like they’re missing a top gear. If they didn’t drop points to Marseille and Bayer Leverkusen, this is a top-eight team instead of a team taking part in the playoffs. Defensively, they only conceded seven goals, and if a match ends up in a penalty shootout, being able to lean on Nick Pope in net is a massive advantage.
Who even are they?
Tottenham
If it weren’t for Tottenham already being in the round of 16 and having won the Europa League last season, they’d probably be further down these rankings. We don’t even know if Thomas Frank will be managing the squad when they take the pitch again in the Champions League due to their Premier League struggles, but they were able to control most of their Champions League fixtures. Tottenham may not have had the most difficult path to get here, but you can only play the teams who are in front of you, and they did just that to rise up the table as the Premier League teams put on quite a showing during the league phase.
If they’re perfect, sure
Atletico Madrid, Sporting CP, Juventus, Atalanta, Borussia Dortmund
Unlike our first group of flawed sides, this group feels out of their depth in the knockouts. Atletico Madrid have lost their ability to control matches as they lean into being an attacking side. Sporting have a chance, but they can’t have Luis Suarez get marked out of a game in their most important fixtures. Juventus and Atalanta can almost be combined here; they have the players to go on a run, but a spot in the last eight feels like their ceiling. And for Dortmund, this squad has fallen quite far since they made the Champions League final in 2024. While they fell to Real Madrid there, this current squad lacks the creativity that they need to really make something happen.
Can cause an upset but probably are up against it
Bodo/Glimt, Benfica
Alright, now this is a fun group. Tasked with facing either Real Madrid or Inter in the round of 16, the deck is already stacked against Bodo/Glimt and Benfica, but if you said that either would be in the knockouts a few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have believed you. Bodo has gone through Manchester City and Atletico Madrid to get here, while Benfica needed a stoppage-time goal by a goalkeeper. Through Jose Mourinho, all things are possible, especially while he’s coaching a true underdog. The knockouts are usually where underdogs go to fall, but in the case of these two sides, they’ve been counted out during the entire tournament, so not believing that they can net at least another win now could be a fool’s errand.
Happy to be here
Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Qarabag, Club Brugge, Olympiacos
Galatasaray may be the standout team here because any team traveling to Rams Park in Turkiye will be in for a fight, but overall, these are sides that will be happy to have made the knockout stage. Each may win a game, but going further than the round of 16 seems a step too far unless they draw Tottenham there in the case of Brugge or Galatasaray.
