By Sarah Wu and Ben Blanchard
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is anticipated to report a 30% hunch in third-quarter revenue on Thursday however analysts predict sturdy progress subsequent yr because the chip trade emerges from its present downturn.
The seemingly decline in revenue additionally displays a robust efficiency final yr, when the corporate was nonetheless driving excessive on pent-up post-pandemic demand.
The world’s largest contract chipmaker is ready to report internet revenue of T$195.9 billion ($6 billion) for July-September – its second straight quarter of revenue decline, in line with an LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 19 analysts. SmartEstimates give better weighting to forecasts from analysts who’re extra persistently correct.
Income for the quarter got here in at round $17 billion, in line with TSMC figures, down 20% from a yr earlier and roughly the center of the corporate’s forecast vary.
World demand for semiconductors started to weaken within the second half of final yr, however analysts say inventories at smartphone and pc makers are operating down and restocking demand is anticipated to select up.
On condition that, a lot of Thursday’s focus will likely be on TSMC’s outlook for the fourth quarter and past.
Morgan Stanley analysts have forecast 10% income progress for the fourth quarter but additionally stated in a analysis observe that “steering could shock to the upside,” citing robust demand for high-end chips utilized in synthetic intelligence as one issue.
The AI growth has helped drive up the worth of shares in Asia’s Most worthy firm, with TSMC’s Taipei-listed inventory having surged 23% to date this yr.
An LSEG SmartEstimate places TSMC’s 2024 income progress at round 22%.
Sources have stated, nonetheless, that TSMC has been nervous about buyer demand and instructed its main suppliers to delay the supply of high-end chip-making gear, though they added that suppliers count on the delay to be short-term.
Some analysts are additionally reining of their optimism considerably.
Fubon Securities expects a gradual begin to subsequent yr for TSMC, with 10% progress within the first quarter, predicting order cancellations in the direction of the yr finish and delicate restocking demand. Specifically, it’s involved that Apple, a serious buyer, could revise down its orders.
“We expect the market consensus remains to be too bullish,” it stated in a analysis observe.
The corporate is because of report at 0600 GMT on Thursday.
($1 = 32.2290 Taiwan {dollars})
(Reporting by Sarah Wu and Ben Blanchard; Extra reporting by Emily Chan; Enhancing by Edwina Gibbs)
