Winter focuses the thoughts on staying heat, notably in Central Asia the place temperatures can drop to minus 40 levels Celsius for weeks at a time. Because the area prepares for winter, folks know that their heating provide may very well be disrupted by surprising energy outages and interruptions in district heating, or by the unavailability of gasoline. Some energy outages are broad however temporary, just like the one in January 2022 that hit Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan; others are narrower however extended, like one in November 2022 that left town of Ekibastuz in Kazakhstan with out electrical energy and heating for greater than every week in subzero temperatures. Even when heating is offered, inefficient provide and houses typically imply increased prices and decrease ranges of consolation.
A transition to sustainable heating can deal with the area’s systemic heating challenges. If achieved proper, its advantages would come with extra reasonably priced and environment friendly heating, higher performing utilities, decrease greenhouse fuel (GHG) emissions, higher air high quality, and in the end extra consolation for residents.
The Promise of Environment friendly, Inexpensive, Clear Heating
Shifting to sustainable heating begins with lowering demand by enhancing vitality effectivity. About one-quarter of Central Asia’s complete vitality is used for area heating, so there’s monumental potential for enhancements within the area, the place buildings typically devour two to a few instances extra vitality than these in Western Europe. Many buildings have been constructed within the Sixties and Seventies when environment friendly designs and insulation have been not often thought of. In consequence, a lot warmth is misplaced by way of leaky home windows and uninsulated partitions and roofs. These inefficiencies imply drafty houses and excessive heating prices for residents, particularly the poor. Thermal renovation of buildings and new constructing codes are important.
The transition will make vitality for heating extra reasonably priced. In Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, about 20 % of the inhabitants spends greater than 10 % of their revenue on vitality, and Tajikistan and Turkmenistan usually are not far behind. Households residing in houses with out insulation that depend on coal for heating will pay considerably greater than these residing in a thermally renovated dwelling with a cleaner heating system resembling a warmth pump and a rooftop photo voltaic panel. When heating costs improve, as they did after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, one in three households faces the stark alternative of lowering heating ranges within the dwelling or reverting to cheaper, typically dirtier fuels.
One other necessary side is lowering the area’s dependency on fossil fuels resembling pure fuel and coal, that are prime sources of GHG emissions and air pollution. In city areas, most houses depend on district heating networks, that are virtually fully depending on fossil fuels, particular person fuel boilers, or typical electrical heating. Outdoors cities, households must rely extra on coal and firewood burned in inefficient, polluting boilers or stoves. In consequence, air air pollution is considerably worse throughout winter, notably in city areas.
Tajikistan has the best degree of air air pollution within the area at about 40 micrograms per cubic meter of high-quality particulate matter, adopted by Uzbekistan at 36 — each far increased than the World Well being Group guideline of 5. Poor air high quality causes 302,000 deaths and incurs a welfare price of seven % of GDP every year in Europe and Central Asia. The area’s governments that prioritize shifting to cleaner fuels can look to developed European international locations the place many cleaner applied sciences and fuels are in use.
Investing in Transformative Change
A shift to cleaner heating will make financial sense over the long run whereas offering a transparent path to lowering emissions by 2050, in line with a new World Bank report, “Towards a Framework for the Sustainable Heating Transition.” Financing the transition would require huge investments supported by authorities subsidies, the report finds. For Central Asia, the general transition price is estimated at $265–316 billion. Nation estimates vary from $147 and $104 billion for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (7.8 % and 1.9 % of GDP, respectively) to $20 billion and $18 billion for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (8.7 % and seven.6 % of GDP, respectively).
These prices are steep, however they’re half of what governments are projected to spend on fossil gasoline subsidies by way of 2050. And the financial advantages are even increased, by way of financial savings, decrease emissions, and improved well being. When it comes to carbon dioxide emissions alone, it’s estimated that the transition would keep away from the emission of about 8.9 billion tons of GHG.
To implement the transition successfully, governments want to cut back demand by investing in vitality effectivity, improve their district heating networks and undertake cleaner fuels, and help clear, environment friendly heating methods for particular person houses. To realize this, every nation must develop its personal technique that features pricing and coverage reforms to incentivize companies and households to undertake cleaner heating choices, financing help within the type of loans, grants, and tax incentives, and data and outreach together with technical coaching.
Investing on this transition can be transformative for Central Asian international locations. It will imply gasoline and value financial savings, decrease emissions, and larger vitality independence. It will increase property costs, create inexperienced jobs, and enhance regional vitality safety. Whereas defending folks throughout harsh winters is vital, this is a chance to put money into significantly greater than protecting folks heat.
