The MVP race through 13 weeks and Brock Purdy’s growing case: Sando’s Pick Six

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Soccer followers love a very good MVP dialogue. We’re going to have one right here after Brock Purdy’s San Francisco 49ers ran the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles off their very own area on Sunday.

Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa entered Week 13 as betting favorites to win the award. Purdy was subsequent, adopted by an enormous drop to Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud within the subsequent tier.

It’s time to reassess not solely the MVP race, however the place Purdy suits into it after main San Francisco to landing drives on six consecutive possessions towards the Eagles — solely the fifth time an offense has carried out that since no less than 2000, per TruMedia.

This version of the Choose Six column strips away all the things anybody has considered Purdy and his position within the 49ers’ success, focusing as an alternative on pure manufacturing. I’ve pulled the related numbers for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks and can present precisely how the 2023 contenders stack up, with particular consideration on Purdy.

• MVP race: The case for Brock Purdy
• Playoff race: Packers & largest swings
• Wanting towards the 2024 coach hiring cycle
• Let’s not overthink offensive declines
• Placing a roof over Geno Smith’s head
• Two-minute drill: LSU’s Daniels over North Carolina’s Maye

1. Not way back, we had been discussing whether or not Brock Purdy was a reliable beginning quarterback. Now, we’re asking whether or not he’s a reliable MVP candidate. The manufacturing says sure. So does the context.

Purdy completed the 49ers’ 42-19 victory towards the Eagles with 314 yards and 4 landing passes. His receivers accounted for 212 yards after the catch, which performs into the pondering Purdy advantages from his receivers disproportionately. He doesn’t on the entire.

YAC accounts for 48.5 % of Purdy’s passing yards this season. The typical is 47 % for beginning quarterbacks. The typical was 48 % for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks. Mahomes was at 54 % throughout his 2022 MVP season.

This sacks the YAC argument towards Purdy.

Researching the place the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks ranked in key classes inside their award-winning seasons creates a profile we are able to apply to Purdy and the opposite betting favorites.

The desk under reveals the place these MVPs ranked in mixed EPA on cross performs/QB rushes, EPA per cross play and complete touchdowns. Specializing in these metrics solves for quantity and effectivity, whereas taking into consideration passing and dashing, with some acknowledgment of conventional stats (touchdowns are good).

Almost all of the MVPs ranked close to the highest in all three classes. Cam Newton was an exception as a result of he began his MVP season slowly.

Viewing 2023 MVP favorites getting into Week 13 by the identical lens reveals Purdy on the high, with Prescott shut behind. Josh Allen is third although his Buffalo Payments have a 6-6 document. Purdy and Prescott haven’t any actual blemishes. They’re probably the most reliable candidates. Purdy outproduced Prescott strikingly when the 49ers blew out the Cowboys earlier within the season, however our production-focused strategy doesn’t take that under consideration.

Wanting past manufacturing for better context is a part of the method. It can also distract.

Purdy advantages from a differentiating play caller and a number of robust receivers. So did Joe Montana (1989, 1990), Steve Younger (1992), Brett Favre (1995-97), Kurt Warner (1999, 2001), Tom Brady (2007), Matt Ryan (2016) and so many others. That’s how MVP seasons come collectively.

Nobody holds it towards Montana or Favre that Mike Holmgren known as offensive performs for all 5 of their MVP seasons. Ought to Kyle Shanahan’s play calling disqualify Purdy?

There’s one ultimate visible to contemplate. Urgent “replay” on the chart under reveals game-by-game EPA on cross performs and quarterback rushes for the 2023 MVP favorites. Toggling between “scores” and “ranks” supplies completely different views on the identical knowledge.

One of many traces represents common game-by-game EPA manufacturing for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks. Discover how intently Purdy’s manufacturing tracks with theirs.

Utilizing averages for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks creates a line with out the peaks and valleys these quarterbacks skilled individually. This line represents the gold commonplace for evaluating MVP quarterback manufacturing.

Prescott has surged lately. Tagovailoa bounced again towards Washington on Sunday following a down stretch. Others vacillate week to week.

Purdy’s manufacturing tracks so intently with the ten MVPs as to develop into nearly indistinguishable in spots. Nobody is aware of what the long run may maintain. If the 49ers discover themselves enjoying from behind and the offense melts down in these pure passing conditions, we are able to revisit this dialog then. For now, it’s clear we’ve reached the purpose the place arguing for Purdy’s MVP case is simpler than arguing towards it.

By no means in 1,000,000 years would I’ve thought that I’d be slicing up snaps of Brock Purdy to make use of as train tape for each pre- & post-snap processing and clear, environment friendly footwork in the identical precise method I’d carried out with Drew Brees earlier than him. There are solely a handful of the way QBs can go…

— Sincere NFL (@TheHonestNFL) December 4, 2023

2. The Inexperienced Bay Packers’ large victory towards the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs improved their playoff possibilities considerably. Right here’s how these possibilities modified for each crew in Week 13.

Dramatic finishes in Week 13 altered the playoff panorama.

Jimmie Ward’s interception for Houston off Denver’s Russell Wilson within the ultimate minute secured a victory that upped the Texans’ playoff possibilities from 50-50 to 70-30, whereas slicing the Broncos’ possibilities in half to roughly 10 %. That sport produced the most important mixed swing for a single sport in Week 13.

Utilizing the mannequin Austin Mock maintains for The Athletic, I’ve produced a desk displaying each crew’s playoff possibilities, and the way these possibilities modified in Week 13.

The Packers’ possibilities have improved from 15 % to 25 % to 53 % to 67 % throughout their three-game profitable streak towards the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. The Packers had been underdogs in each sport. They may very well be favored to win over the course of their remaining schedule, which options the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.

Inexperienced Bay quarterback Jordan Love now ranks twelfth in EPA per cross play. The Packers’ offense ranks tenth in EPA per play. Coach Matt LaFleur improved to 16-0 in December and might make it 20-0 if his Packers can beat the Giants, Bucs, Panthers and Vikings. It’s a brand new day in Inexperienced Bay.

3. The 2024 head coach hiring cycle is quick approaching, and with it the seek for the following Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay.

The favourite to win NFL Coach of the Yr was by no means a major play caller earlier than main the Detroit Lions again from the useless into prime playoff positioning. Will Dan Campbell’s success have an effect on the 2024 hiring cycle? Will Campbell be a one-off? Are there sufficient offensive play callers to go round?

Carolina Panthers proprietor David Tepper reportedly plans to focus on an offensive-minded coach to exchange the offensive-minded coach he simply fired.

Groups over the previous 5 hiring cycles have chosen 23 coaches with backgrounds on offense, 11 with backgrounds on protection and one special-teams coach (Joe Decide).

Deciding upfront you’re solely excited by candidates with a selected background reduces the chance a franchise will discover the most effective candidate. That’s notable for Tepper, who has spoken often about enjoying the chances.

“The very mannequin that the homeowners want might be the toughest one to realize success with,” an exec from a crew with a longtime coach mentioned. “It’s laborious to seek out the coach who can do all of it properly. Now, it provides you the most effective upside. Kyle Shanahan provides you the most effective upside, but it surely’s the toughest one to make work as a result of it’s so laborious to do.”

House owners worry shedding a profitable offensive play caller to go teaching jobs elsewhere, so that they rent offensive-minded head coaches.

However probably the most profitable team-quarterback marriages over the previous 20 years featured coaches with backgrounds on protection and/or particular groups: Invoice Belichick with Tom Brady in New England, Pete Carroll with Russell Wilson in Seattle, John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco in Baltimore, Mike Tomlin with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.

These groups loved far better championship success than the groups that paired offensive-minded coaches with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Philip Rivers. Why? These coaches additionally weren’t play callers. They coached the total crew and set the tradition.

Scoring is down. So many offenses are struggling. Prime offensive assistants have already been employed away from Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams, Shanahan’s 49ers and Nick Sirianni’s Eagles.

The seek for the following elite offensive play-calling head coach will proceed.

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stands out. Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy ought to be within the combine. Maybe the Cincinnati Bengals’ Brian Callahan will get an opportunity. Houston’s Bobby Slowik might draw curiosity after a robust preliminary season as a coordinator. Miami’s Frank Smith is ending his second season with the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel.

A few of the most profitable veteran defensive coordinators generate nearly no buzz.

Steve Spagnuolo has gained three Tremendous Bowls as a defensive coordinator and has the Chiefs’ protection enjoying its finest soccer in years.

Jim Schwartz, one other former head coach with a Tremendous Bowl pedigree as defensive coordinator, has had the Cleveland Browns’ protection within the high 5 statistically.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ protection beneath coordinator Teryl Austin lately allowed not more than 20 factors in seven successive video games, the crew’s longest streak inside a season since 2004.

Dan Quinn, Brian Flores, Raheem Morris, Ejiro Evero and Lou Anarumo are among the many defensive coordinators who might get interviews.

4. The previous month has produced the 4 least-experienced weeks of beginning quarterback play since no less than 2000, which is attention-grabbing as a result of …

With offensive manufacturing down over the previous couple seasons, conversations across the topic have proliferated. Former GM Invoice Polian urged throughout our radio dialog Wednesday that officers are letting defensive backs play extra aggressively, affecting manufacturing. ESPN analysts have urged delayed pressures on protection are having an affect.

A number of explanations may very well be true, however nothing impacts offense greater than quarterbacks do. With so many younger quarterbacks beginning, groups have shifted even more durable towards shotgun formations whereas simplifying their offenses. Each components have made it harder for groups to current a reputable risk within the operating sport, and thus passing turns into tougher.

Groups that current a reputable run risk by scheme, personnel or each have remained explosive within the passing sport. Miami, San Francisco and Houston do that properly. They rank 1-2-3, respectively in explosive cross beneficial properties this season. Sure, personnel issues, however these groups are scheming explosive beneficial properties partly as a result of opponents should decide to defending their run schemes.

That’s my pondering, anyway.

The chart above reveals the common years of expertise for beginning quarterbacks plummeting. It additionally reveals EPA per cross play declining on the identical time. This doesn’t show causation, however this correlation appears logical.

Beginning quarterbacks in Weeks 9 averaged 4.36 years of expertise, lowest in 406 regular-season weeks since 2000, per TruMedia. The 4 youngest weeks in that 24-season knowledge set fell from Week 9-12 this season. This season has produced 9 of the 35 least-experienced weeks since 2000.

5. Geno Smith’s up-and-down season because the Seahawks’ beginning quarterback has generally been confounding. A typical thread may very well be one thing.

The primary e mail arrived the day after Christmas 2022. A Seahawks fan was suggesting Seattle quarterback Geno Smith performed a lot better indoors than outside, for no matter cause (having comparatively small fingers was one idea).

A couple of weeks handed. The identical fan despatched a second e mail, this one that includes a line graph noting Smith’s play tailing off because the 2022 season progressed, and noting Seattle’s late-season schedule featured all outside video games.

A 3rd e mail arrived final month after Seattle’s blowout defeat at Baltimore.

“Outside Geno appears like the identical QB from the Jets,” it learn. “However indoors he appears like the most effective QB within the league.”

Since that sport, Smith regarded fairly good outside towards Washington, largely good beneath the roof at SoFi Stadium towards the Rams, very dangerous outside towards San Francisco and excellent indoors at Dallas.

Add all of it up and I’m undecided what we’ve bought, however these are splits value monitoring no less than. Seattle finishes its season with 4 consecutive outside video games earlier than a visit to Arizona.

The indoor video games rely two at Detroit, three at Los Angeles (two towards the Rams, one towards the Chargers), one at New Orleans, one towards Tampa Bay in Germany and one other at Dallas. A few of these defenses had been robust. Others weren’t. However nearly throughout the board, Smith was extremely productive.

Total, Smith has began 33 of Pete Carroll’s 241 complete video games as Seattle’s head coach. In these 33 begins, Smith has led the most effective and fourth-best offensive EPA video games of the Carroll period: indoors at Detroit final season (48-45 victory with plus-27.6 EPA) and indoors at Dallas on Thursday night time (41-35 defeat with plus 20.9 EPA).

6. Two-minute drill: Right here’s a vote for Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye because the second quarterback within the 2024 draft.

New England shedding and Arizona upsetting Pittsburgh on the street saved the Patriots in prime place to snag one of many high two picks within the 2024 draft. Carolina sits atop the order at 1-11, with the Chicago Bears having acquired the choice in March. The Patriots (2-10) sit second, adopted by the Cardinals (3-10) and Washington (4-9).

Most NFL draft analysts in media appear to have USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye as the highest two quarterbacks within the 2024 class. My Soccer GM co-host, Randy Mueller, defined heading into Week 13 why he sees Williams first and LSU’s Jayden Daniels second. Instincts for the place are one of many key variables in Mueller’s analysis. The main points from that dialog can be found within the audio under.

• Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is on tempo for two,098 receiving yards this season after catching 5 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns in a 45-15 victory towards Washington. Hill over his previous three video games has 24 catches for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns. That roughly matches the full-season manufacturing for Odell Beckham Jr. (27-408-2).

Hill can break Calvin Johnson’s NFL single-season document (1,964) with one other 484 yards. He would wish to common 96.8 yards per sport to interrupt the document. He would wish 121 yards per sport over the following 4 video games to beat Johnson’s document in the identical variety of video games obtainable to Johnson, who set the document in 2012, when groups performed 16 video games as an alternative of 17.

Hill is averaging 123.4 yards per sport.

.@cheetah takin’ us on a journey early 🎢😂 pic.twitter.com/UlLryxhHkM

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 3, 2023

• The New England Patriots have now misplaced 10-6, 10-7 and 6-0 over the previous three weeks. Per Professional Soccer Reference, that is the primary time because the Nineteen Thirties that an NFL crew misplaced three successive video games inside a season with out permitting greater than 10 factors in any of them. The streak has strong potential to proceed as a result of Pittsburgh is subsequent on the Patriots’ schedule.

The 1938 Chicago Cardinals misplaced 4 video games in a row with out permitting greater than 10 factors in any.

The 1937 Steelers, then led by legendary player-coach Johnny “Blood” McNally and nonetheless generally known as the Pirates, had been the final crew to lose three in a row this manner with out make it 4 straight the following week.

McNally was far more thrilling than both the 2023 Patriots or 1937 Pirates on offense. He was recognized for crawling throughout the tops of shifting trains, getting stranded on the SS Mariposa’s stern whereas doing pullups throughout a voyage to Hawaii and scaling inns to, amongst different issues, beat curfew and sing to ladies under.

As for New England, the Patriots are minus-38.2 in offensive EPA and plus-37.3 on the defensive facet throughout this slide. Particular groups has been a pivotal variable. New England is minus-12.1 EPA in that element throughout its three-game skid. The Patriots have completed their previous 4 video games with destructive EPA on particular groups. That ties for the longest Patriots streak of the Invoice Belichick period. …

• Mike Evans enhanced his Corridor of Fame credentials by reaching 1,000 yards for the tenth consecutive season to start out his profession, 4 greater than any participant in NFL historical past (Randy Moss). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ receiver stands atop the yardage record amongst gamers drafted in 2014, even with Davante Adams’ presence.

• The Denver Broncos’ five-game profitable streak resulted in Houston with the offense failing to transform any of its 11 possibilities on third down whereas ending with 282 yards and three turnovers. Russell Wilson’s third and ultimate interception, delivered in the long run zone through the ultimate minute, allowed Houston to emerge with a 22-17 victory. That one was not the killer. Wilson’s second interception was the one that actually harm. Denver had Jerry Jeudy open on an out-and-up, however Wilson as an alternative threw to Courtland Sutton within the put up.

“If the deep participant jumps the put up, you gotta go to the sideline,” a veteran coach who noticed the play mentioned. “They hit him (Sutton) on that earlier within the sport for about 45 yards, and it was 100% the learn on the interception.”

This was Sean Payton’s 270th profession sport as a head coach and the second by which his crew didn’t convert on third down. It occurred with New Orleans in 2021 Week 16, throughout a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins with Ian Guide behind heart for the Saints. …

• Whereas it’s truthful to level out how poorly the Washington Commanders’ protection carried out in its first sport with coach Ron Rivera taking on as coordinator, we’d like multiple sport to make an analysis. The Chicago Bears’ protection was not instantly higher when coach Matt Eberflus took over coordinating duties, but it surely did enhance over time.

The Buffalo Payments went into their Week 13 bye using a two-game streak with two turnovers in 26 drives beneath new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. That’s an enormous enchancment from latest video games, however not a protracted sufficient run to make it a development.

The Payments responded to their turnover-ridden Week 1 defeat towards the New York Jets with a three-game run that includes 14 touchdowns, six made area targets and one turnover throughout 31 drives. Was {that a} case of then-coordinator Ken Dorsey doing an particularly good job? It might have been, however what occurs over a number of video games often can mirror pure ebbs and flows inside a season.

How a lot better are the Pittsburgh Steelers after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada? A lot better final week, not so good Sunday.

Rivera and Washington get a bye in Week 14. How the protection performs in closing video games towards the Rams, Jets, 49ers and Cowboys will higher mirror upon Rivera. …

• Again to Purdy, the 49ers and people six consecutive landing drives. Per TruMedia. San Francisco joined an exalted group of crew/quarterback combos to perform the feat. Additionally on the record: the 2019 Ravens with MVP Lamar Jackson; the 2007 and 2009 Patriots with Brady; and the 2001 Colts with Peyton Manning.

GO DEEPER

NFL Energy Rankings Week 14: 49ers make an announcement, plus worst-case eventualities

(Prime picture: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Photos)

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