Traders on prediction markets platform Kalshi don’t think the Strait of Hormuz will see normal traffic flows until late summer or September.
While the U.S. and Iran have maintained a ceasefire, Iran has yet to signal when it may open the strait nor has the U.S. indicated when it might end its naval blockade of the passageway.
Traders now give a 57% chance traffic in the strait will return to normal by September 1. Odds that will happen by August are hovering around 56%.
Kalshi defines normal traffic flows on the contract as the 7-day moving average of transit through the strait crossing 60 based on data from IMF PortWatch.
On Monday, the U.S. and Iran made conflicting claims about a ship near the strait. Iranian state media claimed that the country hit a U.S. warship with two missiles, forcing the vessel to retreat. U.S. Central Command denied that claim. Traders also digested news that the United Arab Emirates on Monday said it intercepted Iranian missiles for the first time since the ceasefire began.
It came after on Sunday President Donald Trump said the U.S. military will “guide” ships through the strait that have been stranded near it since the war began.
The latest headlines and lack of any breakthrough in negotiations between the two countries have made traders reassess when they think the Strait will open. Just a week ago, on April 27, traders thought the most likely scenario was the strait reopening by July 1.
Traders, though, see the passageway likely open by next year, giving 76% odds that normal traffic returns by January 1, 2027.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.
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