Five of the last six UEFA Champions League titles have been won by teams that will meet in the quarterfinals. On Wednesday defending champions Liverpool will face PSG, but before that comes Real Madrid’s clash with Bayern Munich, which serves as the last eight’s headlining act. These two teams alone have won four of the last eight titles. It is undoubtedly a battle between two of Europe’s most successful teams, but these sides are not meeting on level terms – Bayern are amongst the favorites to win the Champions League, while Los Blancos continue to sputter in a season marred by inconsistency.
Bayern have returned to their status as European juggernauts this season under coach Vincent Kompany, quickly assuming the role as the greatest challenger to Arsenal for the Champions League title. That dominance has not wavered much this season – their victories are often commanding and unflinching, as was the case with a 10-2 aggregate win over Atalanta in the round of 16. Even when the going gets tough, Bayern generally dig themselves out of the hole. Case in point, Saturday’s 3-2 win at SC Freiburg, when Lennart Karl scored a last-gasp winner to keep them nine points atop the Bundesliga. They arrive in Madrid fresh off scoring their 100th Bundesliga goal of the season, equalling the division’s single-season record set by Bayern’s treble-winning team from the 2019-20 campaign.
For all of Bayern’s dominance, though, Kompany’s version of the team has not tested itself against Europe’s elites often and so far has mixed results to show for it. A 2-1 win at Paris Saint-Germain in November was the first signal that they are genuine contenders for the title, but a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal weeks later demonstrated some room for improvement. The bigger question, though, is whether they can do so without star Harry Kane.
How to watch Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich, odds
- Date: Tuesday, April 7 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Bernabeu — Madrid, Spain
- Live stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Real Madrid +190; Draw +300; Bayern Munich +116
The England international missed Saturday’s match with a minor injury he sustained during the international break, an issue that has been shrouded in mystery thus far. He did train on Monday and make the trip to Madrid, though Kompany offered few specifics on his availability on Tuesday.
It was important that he did a lot of training today,” Kompany said. “I don’t think he’s lost his rhythm … Harry Kane knows how important this game is, but it is important to take a decision with each player. You keep asking about Harry Kane and to be honest I like it. I don’t mind but I don’t give you an answer.”
The star of Bayern’s show is likely to be Michael Olise instead, the France international in the midst of a breakout season with 19 goals and 26 assists across all competitions. He will not bear the burden of Bayern’s attacking operation by himself – with Luis Diaz and Serge Gnabry in the midst of double-digit goalscoring seasons and teenager Karl making an impact, there is no question that Bayern are the favorites on Tuesday even if they remain untested. That’s because they face a Real Madrid side that have been inconsistent all season long, their imbalance on full display even as they reach the last eight of the Champions League.
Los Blancos do not lack star quality but they face the prospect of a second consecutive season without a trophy, the tactical balance still hard to strike with an imperfect squad. That was the prevailing feeling after Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Mallorca, which marked Alvaro Arbeloa’s fifth loss in 18 games since taking over for Xabi Alonso, who had six defeats in 34 matches.
“You switch off for a moment, you don’t track your man, and you end up paying for it,” Arbeloa said post-match. “It’s easy to recognise the opponent’s strengths. What’s difficult is understanding that without 200 percent from everyone, we were never going to win.”
The coaching change has not done much to reinvigorate Madrid, who outshot Mallorca 15 to six but generated just 1.26 expected goals to the opponent’s 1.19, their talented attack failing to create meaningful goalscoring opportunities – and not for the first time. It is a problem that predates both Arbeloa and Alonso, but once again, the team has a whole has been reduced to the moods of their star players rather than building a squad that is tactically cohesive. Arbeloa received a vote of confidence on Monday from Vinicius Junior, with whom he said he has a “wonderful connection,” despite Saturday’s result.
“I was playing matches, but not many minutes,” he said of his time working with Alonso. “It was difficult, but every coach has their own methods, and I didn’t connect the way he wanted. Still, it was a learning experience, and I hope I can continue with Arbeloa, because I have a wonderful connection with him and he has always given me confidence.
“Arbeloa has made it clear what he wants from me. I went a long time without scoring goals. That happened when I wasn’t in the right mindset, and I was very young. But I’ve learned. The best players always bounce back.”
Vinicius almost has a point. Even before Kylian Mbappe arrived and while Carlo Ancelotti was still at the helm, Real Madrid seemed to be the exception to the game’s tactical rules. Their Champions League-winning run in 2024 was defined by luck, their star power able to bail the team out of trouble time and time again. That luck ran out almost as soon as they lifted their 15th Champions League trophy at London’s Wembley Stadium, even if their 5-1 aggregate pummeling of Manchester City in the round of 16 demonstrates that they cannot be fully counted out.
A late goal from Mallorca’s Vedat Muriqi, who is second only to Mbappe on LaLiga’s scoring charts this season, offered a stark reminder of Los Blancos’ faults. Muriqi is as formidable an opponent as it gets but Bayern as a whole will be another task entirely with or without Kane. They just might need a perfect outing to beat this version of Bayern, the type of performance that has eluded them all season long.
