Picking the entire NFL slate in the final two weeks of the season is really challenging.
Who is playing? Where’s the motivation? Which players have their minds on Cancun and Aruba?
Those are my excuses for having a terrible Week 17. I went 7-8-1 against the spread and 8-8 straight up. Not good.
My ATS record for the season is now 131-122-3, and my straight-up record is 167-88-1. The goal before the season was to at least be over .500 in both categories. One is a lock. The ATS one is close.
So that means in one of the toughest weeks to pick games, I have to rebound.
Let’s just hope with these picks I’ve figured out who has their mind on tropical locales and not football.
Aruba, Jamaica, ooh I want to take you … anywhere but the NFL field.
Not yet, fellas. One more week for some and even more for others. It’s just trying to gauge the want-to that makes this week so tough.
All Week 18 NFL betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Both of these teams come in playing good football, even if they’ve both been eliminated. The Falcons beat the Rams on Monday night and looked good on both sides of the ball. The Saints have found something in rookie passer Tyler Shough. I think he continues to play well as the Saints win it late.
Pick: Saints 23, Falcons 21
The Bills are playing only for seeding, so it will be interesting to see how they handle this one. Do they sit Josh Allen? Does it matter? The Jets are so bad right now that it won’t. They are lifeless. Bills take it — no matter who plays.
Pick: Bills 27, Jets 12
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The Bears are playing for seeding, while the Lions are looking to vacation spots. The Lions haven’t played well down the stretch, while the Bears have on offense. The Lions playing outside have been a different team in recent years, but the Chicago defense is not good right now. This is a shootout, with the Bears taking it.
Pick: Bears 31, Lions 27
The battle of Ohio means nothing other than pride. Both teams are coming off impressive victories. The story here is whether Myles Garrett can get a sack to break the single-season sack record. Joe Burrow has been playing well, so look for that to continue. Bengals win it, but Garrett gets the sack record.
Pick: Bengals 30, Browns 24
The Chargers have decided they don’t care about this game, sitting Justin Herbert, while the Broncos are playing for the top seed in the conference after locking up the division last week. Look for that Denver defensive front to get after Trey Lance. This will be bad, with nothing really at stake for the Chargers.
Pick: Broncos 30, Chargers 17
The Texans can still win the AFC South with a victory and a loss by the Jaguars. The Colts are done, which is why they are starting rookie Riley Leonard. He will be overwhelmed by that Texans defense. This will be ugly. Texans big.
Pick: Texans 30, Colts 13
If the Jaguars win this one, they are the AFC South champions. The Titans would love to ruin that party. But the Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the league, and the Titans’ pass defense is a major issue. Look for a big game from Trevor Lawrence.
Pick: Jaguars 31, Titans 17
The Rams will play their starters here after losing two straight. They need to get back on track. Matthew Stafford threw three interceptions on Monday night, but this Arizona defense has major problems. Look for the Rams to get back to playing playoff-like football.
Pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 14
The Raiders need to lose. Yes, they need to lose. If they do, they get the top draft pick. The problem is this version of the Chiefs isn’t very good. With Chris Oladokun starting at quarterback, they are still better than the Raiders. Chiefs win it.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 16
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The Packers are locked into the seventh spot, while the Vikings are looking to the offseason. But the Minnesota defense has been dominant the past eight weeks. The Packers have quarterback injuries on a team playing for nothing, so look for the Vikings to win it behind their defense.
Pick: Vikings 23, Packers 21
The Dolphins are playing for nothing, while the Patriots have a chance at the top seed. The cold weather has been a problem for Miami, and this will be a challenge in terms of motivation. Look for the Patriots to roll here as Drake Maye continues his quest for the MVP, but Miami will score with the running game.
Pick: Patriots 28, Dolphins 19
The Cowboys are back out on the road for a second straight week after beating the Commanders last week. This will be the final game for interim coach Mike Kafka in New York. The Giants played well in beating the Raiders, but this Cowboys team can score. Even so, look for the Giants to keep it close.
Pick: Cowboys 29, Giants 27
The Eagles are playing for the possible No. 2 seed, while the Commanders are playing for nothing. The Eagles beat up on the Commanders two weeks ago, and that will likely be the case here as well. The Eagles need to get the offense going, and this is the perfect tonic for it. Eagles big.
Pick: Eagles 29, Commanders 10
With the Steelers losing Sunday, this is for the division title and a berth in the playoffs. Loser goes home. The status of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will be big here. If he plays with the bad back, how healthy will he be? The Steelers clearly missed DK Metcalf last week as he’s serving a two-game suspension, and he will be missed here. But the Ravens defense is a mess. Steelers take it.
Pick: Steelers 23, Ravens 17
