A high-stakes batch of festive fixtures awaits the Premier League’s teams, many of them in the hunt for much-needed points as they approach the business end of the campaign.
Arsenal remain the oddsmakers’ choice to win the title and Manchester City have provided a real challenge so far, but unpredictability has been the theme of the season so far. This season has had its fair share of surprises, from Sunderland’s rise up the table to Liverpool’s fall from grace a few short months after winning the Premier League title. This weekend’s action was no exception – the Reds were unimpressive despite beating Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday, while Aston Villa stayed in third place as Morgan Rogers‘ individual brilliance led them to a 2-1 win over Manchester United on Sunday despite the Red Devils’ impressive turnaround this season.
Christmas, as a result, serves as a fascinating check-in on each of the top flight’s 20 teams as a competitive race for the title and top four spots – and as the top relegation contenders take on the uphill battle of escaping the bottom three. Here’s a look at how each team has fared so far this season before the Premier League’s busy holiday stretch.
1. Arsenal (39 points)
Arsenal have become regular contenders in recent years but things really seem to be trending in the right direction this time around and heading into Christmas, they remain the team to beat. The difference this season seems to be their deep squad, which has allowed the team to withstand injury issues and Viktor Gyokeres’ underwhelming start to life in the Premier League. A two point gap may make Manchester City a little too close for comfort but there are few complaints to make about the Gunners’ work so far, their strong start to the campaign is undeniable. Grade: A
2. Manchester City (37 points)
Manchester City very clearly entered the season in rebuild mode, a natural result of the previous campaign’s slide to third place after winning four successive titles. They have been obviously imperfect and appear overly reliant on Erling Haaland and yet … they have thrust themselves into the title race. It may feel a little bit like a fluke, which raises a ton of questions about whether or not they can keep this up, but they deserve credit for finding a way to win time and time again, no matter how unlikely those victories have seemed. This grade, though, should not be confused for a prediction of what’s to come – this version of Pep Guardiola’s team does not look close to the finished product just yet. Grade: A
3. Aston Villa (36 points)
Aston Villa may have had some fortune on their side this season but they probably do not care all that much, sitting in third place heading into Christmas. Unai Emery’s side ranks 15th in the Premier League for expected goal differential and have overperformed their expected goals tally considerably with 27 goals from 18.1 expected goals. They have also benefited greatly from Morgan Rogers’ impressive run of form, the England international now boasting 10 goal contributions in his last 12 league games. It is worth asking if this approach is sustainable but their strong start probably means they have done enough to stay in the conversation for a berth in next season’s edition of the UEFA Champions League, which is undoubtedly an improvement from a year ago. Grade: B+
4. Chelsea 29 points
It has been a weird season for Chelsea, who are probably right where they should be in fourth place but have almost dragged themselves there in the process. Cole Palmer has spent much of the season injured and their attacking output has gone out the window in the process, all while making matters worse for themselves by picking up red cards at a shockingly high rate. Combine that with the fact that manager Enzo Maresca declared that he recently experienced his worst 48 hours at the club but would not explain why, it would be hard to say things are going wonderfully at Stamford Bridge. Grade: B
5. Liverpool (29 points)
In the span of a few short months, Liverpool have gone from the Premier League champions to the top flight’s crisis team. Mohamed Salah’s impressive form that anchored their title campaign is nowhere to be seen but more worryingly, manager Arne Slot has not found a way to build cohesion amongst his many attacking talents, the Reds’ ability to compete hampered in the process. Take Saturday’s 2-1 win at Tottenham Hotspur as an example – they had a man advantage for an hour after Xavi Simons‘ 33rd-minute red card but Spurs outshot them 15 to eight and outdid them with 1.07 expected goals to 0.66. Grade: D
6. Sunderland (27 points)
Aston Villa may be fortunate to be as high as they are but the luckiest team in the league this season just might be Sunderland, who rank 17th for expected goal differential but have racked up the types of results that make relegation difficult to imagine. They have overperformed their actual output in just about every category, leading with their defensive stability. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded fewer goals than them so far this season, outdoing just about every realistic expectation newly promoted teams face in the process. The other shoe may drop at some point but staying up is essentially a pass-fail task and Sunderland are passing with flying colors, in that sense. Grade: A
7. Manchester United (26 points)
It may have felt unlikely at the start of the season but at long last, Manchester United have found some stability. Ruben Amorim’s side have sneakily been one of the Premier League’s best attacking teams all season with 31 goals, a tally only bettered by Erling Haaland-led Manchester City, and sit just three points outside of the top four heading into Christmas. It makes for a rapid transformation from last season’s 15th-place finish, quietly making them one of the stories of the season so far. Grade: A+
8. Crystal Palace (26 points)
Things keep trending upwards for Crystal Palace under Oliver Glasner, who have followed up their first-ever trophy with their first European campaign and a spot in the Premier League’s top half at Christmas. They rank fourth for expected goal differential in the league and are amongst England’s better defensive teams, on track to climb out of their personal purgatory of 12th place in the process. There is a little room for improvement for Palace, though – they have scored just 21 goals despite generating 28.24 expected goals in 17 games, which is why they sit a little lower in the table than the statistics suggest they should. Grade: A-
9. Brighton and Hove Albion (24 points)
Ninth place is a very respectable place for Brighton and Hove Albion to land at Christmas, but it is not exactly groundbreaking. They are performing roughly the same as they were this time a year ago, the club clearly in a holding pattern as one of the better midtable Premier League teams. There are worse fates than that but at this stage in the season, there is not much to write home about. Grade: B
10. Everton (24 points)
Relegation is not really on Everton’s radar this season, a welcome departure from some recent seasons, but David Moyes’ side seems destined for a midtable finish this season. It is probably a nice little injection of stability for a club that has needed it and only adds to the feeling that the Toffees have entered a new chapter, especially with the opening of Hill Dickinson Stadium. That is probably the only big takeaway, though, for an otherwise insignificant Everton season so far. Grade: B
11. Newcastle United (23 points)
Things have not gone according to plan for Newcastle United, who have lost their defensive resolve and slipped down to 11th place as a result. They seem to be happy with Nick Woltemade‘s seven goals to start his first Premier League season but he is no genuine replacement for Alexander Isak, though the Sweden international’s departure is not the Magpies’ only issue this season. Eddie Howe’s side are a bit underwhelming and disappointing, a far cry from the team that finished fifth last season and were one of England’s best teams for long stretches of the campaign. Grade: D
12. Brentford (23 points)
Brentford have not really missed a beat despite some high-profile departures over the summer, again proving themselves to be a modern example of how newly promoted clubs can transition into becoming Premier League regulars. The highlight of the campaign has been Igor Thiago, who has 11 goals so far this season and ranks only behind Erling Haaland in that category. Grade: B
13. Tottenham Hotspur (22 points)
Tottenham Hotspur are a little hard to judge since they are technically doing better than they were last season, when they notched a 17th-place finish. There’s an argument to be made, though, that the standard should be much, much higher and that Thomas Frank’s overly conservative strategy has not helped matters. Spurs have, at times, appeared allergic to taking shots and have not actually been strong in defense to make up the difference. There may be positives to take from their performance against Liverpool on Saturday, the players eventually playing with enough freedom to muster together a better attacking performance than the Reds, but only if Frank is willing to learn those lessons. Grade: D
14. Bournemouth (22 points)
Bournemouth have impressive qualities but have yet to demonstrate an ability to take a leap out of midtable mediocrity just yet, which may pave the way for an unmemorable season in some ways. Antoine Semenyo has been a real highlight, though, with eight goals and three assists so far this campaign. Grade: B-
15. Fulham (20 points)
Fulham are another one of those teams that have not changed much over the last year, keeping them just far enough from the drop zone but providing few other noteworthy moments along the way. Another midtable finish seems likely, though the return of U.S. men’s national team defender Antonee Robinson after a long spell on the sidelines could improve things in the second half of the season. Grade: C
16. Leeds United (19 points)
Leeds United look more like a realistic version of the best-case scenario for a newly promoted side, entering Christmas six points clear of the relegation zone. They are probably a lot lower than they would like to be based on their performances – they rank inside the Premier League’s top 10 for goals and expected goals but have been leaky at the back, conceding 31 goals despite posting 24.63 expected goals against. It’s been a mixed bag for Leeds as a result but a path to staying up is not hard to envision, which should count for something. Grade: B
17. Nottingham Forest (18 points)
Last season’s form to clinch a seventh-place finish was clearly fleeting since Forest are now back in the relegation mix in the midst of a chaotic season. They are now on their third manager of the campaign, Sean Dyche, succeeding Ange Postecoglou and Nuno Espirito Santo before him, but a variety of stylistic approaches have not helped Forest all that much. There are few redeeming qualities, too – a look at the underlying statistics demonstrates that they are midtable at best, the grueling tone of this campaign is ultimately an accurate one. Grade: D
18. West Ham United (13 points)
West Ham United are technically supposed to be better than this but the writing has been on the wall since the summer so their spot in the relegation zone comes as little surprise at this point. A great escape is not impossible with 19 games to go but years of poor squad building make them look a lot like a team that deserves to go down – they are not stacked with players with game-changing abilities, nor do they have any sort of cohesion to string together a few important wins. Grade: F
19. Burnley (11 points)
Burnley have earned the tag of most archetypal promoted team this season, dead last or close enough in just about every statistical category worth paying attention to. It does not help that their promotion campaign was built on an overreliance on goalkeeper James Trafford, who now sits on Manchester City’s bench. If West Ham seem doomed, Burnley have it worse in every sense, a ticket back to the Championship feeling fairly certain even at Christmastime. Grade: F
20. Wolverhampton Wanderers (two points)
Heading into Christmas, Wolverhampton Wanderers are on course to be the worst-ever team in the Premier League’s history. They are on course to win just 4.47 points by season’s end – even if one rounded that total up to five for generosity’s sake, they would still be six points short of the Derby County team that won just 11 points in the 2007-08 season. Never has a failing grade been so easy to dole out, the race to break all the wrong records now well and truly underway. Grade: F
