Another week of the Premier League is back, and don’t look now, but we may have a title race on our hands as Arsenal are only two points ahead of Manchester City and two points ahead of Aston Villa. Unai Emery has helped the squad rebound from a rough start to the season, and they’re now in the thick of the race, even with balancing European play. Things will continue to tighten with the festive period in full swing, but also with the Africa Cup of Nations kicking off on Sunday, some teams, like Sunderland and Manchester United, will be hit hard.
That’s something to take into account from a betting perspective because it’s hard to know what will be seen out of teams with major AFCON absences, making it something that I’ll look to avoid this week. So with that out of the way, let’s get to it.
Manchester City vs. West Ham United
Manchester City to score 2+ goals in the first half (+154)
Saturday, 10 a.m. ET
In a perfect world, we’d take City to win and Erling Haaland to score, but when both of these things have become automatic as City have climbed to second in the league, there’s no value in doing that. West Ham United have improved under Nuno Espirito Santo, but this is a moment when they will be overmatched due to the talent that City have at their disposal. Even with needing to balance the EFL Cup midweek, Pep Guardiola was able to get in a rare moment where he could rest Haaland, and the Norwegian being fresh will be a scary sight for teams in their path. City are rarely able to be stopped from scoring in the first half, and West Ham won’t be a team that is able to do that either.
Tottenham vs. Liverpool
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-125)
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Both of these teams may be just getting by in European play, but their league form has been disappointing. With Mohamed Salah and Pape Matar Sarr away at AFCON, they will need to cope with the absences of key players while also trying to kick their defense into gear. Picking a winner in this one is impossible as these teams look to defy logic in matches, but if one thing is for sure, it’s that there will be goals in this meeting. Tottenham may have kept two clean sheets in their last five matches in all competitions, but considering that they were against Brentford and Slavia Praha, that’s nothing similar to the attack that they’ll face from Liverpool, even without Salah. Meanwhile, the Reds have been a completely different team in Premier League play as compared to the Champions League. They did shut out Inter and Brighton in their last two matches, but both are times when the Reds should’ve conceded, so going on the road to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will be a tall task for keeping a clean sheet.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
Aston Villa to win (+105)
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Okay, we’re going back to the AFCON effect. Aston Villa have been flying close to the sun, and their wings may melt sooner than later, but hosting Manchester United at Villa Park isn’t set to be that time. Ruben Amorim will need to replace two key players in his starting XI as Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo are both on AFCON duty for their respective countries. This is also after the emotional blow of drawing 4-4 with Bournemouth on Monday in a problem of the United defense’s own creation. In Matheus Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, and Benjamin Sesko, there’s still a lot to contend with in the attack, but Emery will find a weakness and exploit it to get Villa a win. The preparation that Villa does for every match will pay off here picking up yet another win and staying firmly in the title race through Christmas.
