Predicting every Champions League league phase game: Real Madrid to finish first, Barcelona, PSG close behind

The Champions League is again and with it comes essentially the most herculean activity of my 12 months, even perhaps of my life: predicting each single recreation of the league part of the competitors. That is 144 video games of soccer, all “rigorously” thought-about and assessed such that they coalesce right into a desk of European soccer’s excellent groups. And what precisely did you do at work at present?

My credentials for this activity. Easy: that is the person who final season predicted a Manchester Metropolis, Actual Madrid one-two, Leipzig using excessive within the prime eight and Brest and Lille each crashing out within the league part. I did, nevertheless, accurately see that PSV Eindhoven and AC Milan could be within the thirteenth/14th area. So yeah, possibly do not wager the massive bucks on these.

Matchweek 1

• Athletic Membership 1, Arsenal 2
• PSV Eindhoven 1, Union St. Gilloise 2
• Actual Madrid 3, Marseille 0
• Juventus 2, Borussia Dortmund 1
• Benfica 4, Qarabag 0
• Tottenham 2, Villarreal 2
• Slavia Prague 1, Bodo/Glimt 0
• Olympiacos 3, Pafos 1
• Bayern Munich 2, Chelsea 1
• Ajax 1, Inter 2
• Liverpool 2, Atletico Madrid 0
• Paris Saint-Germain 3, Atalanta 1
• Copenhagen 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0
• Membership Brugge 0, Monaco 0
• Newcastle 1, Barcelona 3
• Manchester Metropolis 2, Napoli 0
• Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Galatasaray 0
• Sporting 2, Kairat 0

The opening spherical of Champions League video games largely goes within the route you may count on. The very large video games are received by the superior groups and Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Atletico Madrid is especially merciless in its comprehensiveness. It’s laborious to not fear how Diego Simeone’s aspect, gradual out of the blocks early this season, will fare within the weeks forward.

Certainly, these early video games show to be powerful on loads of the groups who’re nonetheless getting themselves collectively. Specifically Newcastle’s assault cannot match the firepower of a fully-functioning Barcelona. These autumnal troubles do result in one notable upset in week one. Kasper Hjulmand simply hasn’t had time to get his Bayer Leverkusen aspect clicking into gear, they usually fall away to Copenhagen.

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Matchweek 2

• Kairat 1, Actual Madrid 4
• Atalanta 2, Membership Brugge 0
• Pafos 1, Bayern Munich 0
• Chelsea 2, Benfica 0
• Inter 1, Slavia Prague 0
• Galatasaray 2, Liverpool 2
• Atletico Madrid 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 1
• Marseille 0, Ajax 0
• Bodo/Glimt 1, Tottenham 3
• Qarabag 1, Copenhagen 2
• Union St. Gilloise 1, Newcastle 3
• Borussia Dortmund 2, Athletic Membership 1
• Barcelona 2, Paris Saint-Germain 3
• Monaco 1, Manchester Metropolis 2
• Bayer Leverkusen 2, PSV Eindhoven 2
• Arsenal 3, Olympiacos 1
• Villarreal 1, Juventus 1
• Napoli 2, Sporting 0

Large upsets tended to return early within the Champions League’s previous group stage setup. It is smart, even essentially the most diligent scouting by Europe’s large weapons cannot actually predict how Kairat will play when Actual Madrid roll into city. In fact, the Kazakh aspect aren’t fairly ok to drag off the upset however Pafos show themselves to be. They’ve gifted gamers and it helps no finish that at some unknowable second of their current historical past Bayern Munich stopped turning into the crew that prevented such calamitous upsets.

Week two additionally delivers the sport of the league part. In fact it does, it is Barcelona in opposition to Paris Saint-Germain, the ultimate each impartial needed in the summertime. Each groups defend higher than the scoreline may recommend however PSG simply have the firepower to triumph in no matter stadium Barca are enjoying in come late September.

Matchweek 3

• Barcelona 3, Olympiacos 0
• Kairat 1, Pafos 1
• Union St. Gilloise 1, Inter 2
• Copenhagen 1, Borussia Dortmund 3
• Bayer Leverkusen 0, Paris Saint-Germain 2
• Villarreal 0, Manchester Metropolis 2
• Arsenal 1, Atletico Madrid 0
• Newcastle 2, Benfica 1
• PSV Eindhoven 1, Napoli 1
• Galatasaray 2, Bodo/Glimt 0
• Athletic Membership 4, Qarabag 1
• Bayern Munich 3, Membership Brugge 0
• Chelsea 3, Ajax 1
• Actual Madrid 2, Juventus 0
• Eintracht Frankfurt 0, Liverpool 1
• Atalanta 1, Slavia Prague 1
• Sporting 1, Marseille 0
• Monaco 2,Tottenham 1

Atletico Madrid formally careen into yikes territory. They attempt to out-attrition Arsenal and that goes about the way in which you’d count on. Come week three of the league part, the very last thing you wish to be is the principle character and, effectively, Atleti are vying with Bayer Leverkusen for a starring position.

To make issues worse for Los Colchoneros, their crosstown rivals are blitzing the sphere. Xabi Alonso’s crew are buzzing with 9 factors type 9. Their win over Juventus may be their most spectacular show within the competitors thus far, their supervisor’s model of regular management suffused right into a dizzying assortment of attackers. They appear a lock for prime eight and lots extra to return.

Matchweek 4

• Slavia Prague 0, Arsenal 2
• Napoli 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 2
• Paris Saint-Germain 3, Bayern Munich 1
• Liverpool 2, Actual Madrid 2
• Juventus 1, Sporting 0
• Atletico Madrid 2, Union St. Gilloise 1
• Tottenham 1, Copenhagen 0
• Bodo/Glimt 2, Monaco 1
• Olympiacos 0, PSV Eindhoven 0
• Qarabag 0, Chelsea 3
• Pafos 2, Villarreal 4
• Inter 3, Kairat 0
• Manchester Metropolis 4, Borussia Dortmund 2
• Membership Brugge 1, Barcelona 3
• Benfica 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0
• Marseille 2, Atalanta 1
• Ajax 3, Galatasaray 2
• Newcastle 1, Athletic Membership 0

On the midway level of the league part, 4 groups have accrued the utmost variety of factors. Within the case of Arsenal and Inter that’s most likely as a result of the fixture checklist hasn’t unduly examined them but whereas Manchester Metropolis are selecting up factors with out fairly trying their traditional critical contender selves. PSG? They’ve simply carried on from the place they left off.

In the meantime each one of many English groups discover themselves within the prime 10, not far off the Gunners. Each Chelsea and Newcastle sit simply inside the highest eight with three wins and a defeat whereas Liverpool’s excessive octane draw with Actual Madrid places them as the one crew with two wins and two attracts from the primary 4. Thomas Frank guides Tottenham previous his compatriots from Copenhagen and Spurs look to have recovered from their bust evening in Monaco.

Matchweek 5

• Ajax 1, Benfica 1
• Galatasaray 1, Union St. Gilloise 0
• Chelsea 1, Barcelona 2
• Borussia Dortmund 1, Villarreal 0
• Manchester Metropolis 2, Bayer Leverkusen 0
• Bodo/Glimt 1, Juventus 3
• Marseille 2, Newcastle 2
• Slavia Prague 1, Athletic Membership 0
• Napoli 2, Qarabag 0
• Pafos 0, Monaco 2
• Copenhagen 2, Kairat 1
• Arsenal 1, Bayern Munich 1
• Olympiacos 0, Actual Madrid 2
• Atletico Madrid 1, Inter 2
• Liverpool 3, PSV Eindhoven 1
• Paris Saint-Germain 2, Tottenham 0
• Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Atalanta 0
• Sporting 0, Membership Brugge 0

On the 5 recreation mark solely 4 groups are nonetheless with out a win. The draw has been harsh on Membership Brugge, who could have needed to play all their Pot One and Two opponents earlier than December is out, video games in opposition to Monaco and Sporting aren’t a lot simpler both. Bayer Leverkusen too may see salvation additional alongside the fixture checklist however they will must get motoring, tied with Karat on a solitary level. No matter they do won’t be sufficient, final season 10 factors wouldn’t have gotten a crew within the prime 24. That typically should not be the case however Hjulmand’s aspect should be good from right here on out.

There’s stress too on Bayern Munich, languishing in sixteenth after a draw on the Emirates Stadium. Certainly this isn’t shaping as much as be a classic season for Germany soccer with none of their groups within the prime 10 of the league part.

Matchweek 6

• Kairat 0, Olympiacos 1
• Bayern Munich 3, Sporting 0
• Atalanta 1, Chelsea 1
• Inter 0, Liverpool 2
• Barcelona 3, Eintracht Frankfurt 1
• PSV Eindhoven 1, Atletico Madrid 1
• Union St. Gilloise 2, Marseille 1
• Tottenham 2, Slavia Prague 0
• Monaco 3, Galatasaray 1
• Villarreal 2, Copenhagen 0
• Qarabag 2, Ajax 1
• Actual Madrid 2, Manchester Metropolis 0
• Borussia Dortmund 3, Bodo/Glimt 0
• Athletic Membership 1, Paris Saint-Germain 2
• Bayer Leverkusen 1, Newcastle 0
• Membership Brugge 0, Arsenal 2
• Benfica 1, Napoli 1
• Juventus 2, Pafos 0

It is Christmas time however, despite Paul Young’s proclamations to the contrary, there may be each must be afraid if you’re Ajax, Atalanta and Atletico Madrid. With 5 factors to their title they most likely are going to want to return into 2026 in a a lot better vein of type. It would simply take two wins if they’re to achieve the knockouts.

In the meantime there appears to be the primary glimmer of separation between a prime 9 and groups who may in any other case should accept a spot within the knockout playoffs. Actually a sextet of PSG, Actual Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona, Manchester Metropolis and Inter are very effectively positioned to earn their bye; Liverpool’s win and a good pair of remaining fixtures means you’d fancy them to make tie up a spot too.

Matchweek 7

• Kairat 0, Membership Brugge 2
• Bodo/Glimt 1, Manchester Metropolis 3
• Actual Madrid 2, Monaco 1
• Inter 1, Arsenal 1
• Tottenham 2, Borussia Dortmund 2
• Sporting 1, Paris Saint-Germain 0
• Olympiacos 1, Bayer Leverkusen 2
• Villarreal 2, Ajax 0
• Copenhagen 1, Napoli 2
• Qarabag 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 3
• Galatasaray 2, Atletico Madrid 0
• Bayern Munich 3, Union St. Gilloise 1
• Chelsea 2, Pafos 0
• Marseille 0, Liverpool 2
• Slavia Prague 1, Barcelona 4
• Atalanta 2, Athletic Membership 1
• Juventus 1, Benfica 1
• Newcastle 2, PSV Eindhoven 0

With these outcomes six of the highest eight are locked up, fairly a change from final season when a fantastic deal was left to be determined on the prime of the desk within the ultimate fixtures. What has modified? Properly extra of the great groups have truly been actually good. Manchester Metropolis, Actual Madrid and PSG all wobbled their manner into the knockouts, not less than certainly one of them could have discovered the difficulty that comes with that.

The true ultimate day drama goes to return within the battle for twenty fourth. There is not a giant beast of Metropolis or PSG ranges scrapping for survival this time round however there may be Atletico Madrid, blown away by the ferocious environment in Istanbul. Their most factors tally is eight they usually have three groups between them and twenty fourth. It appears prefer it’s all about to go fallacious for Simeone’s males.

Matchweek 8

• PSV Eindhoven 2, Bayern Munich 3
• Napoli 2, Chelsea 1
• Benfica 1, Actual Madrid 3
• Borussia Dortmund 0, Inter 0
• Liverpool 3, Qarabag 0
• Barcelona 2, Copenhagen 1
• Manchester Metropolis 2, Galatasaray 2
• Bayer Leverkusen 3, Villarreal 0
• Arsenal 4, Kairt 0
• Union St. Gilloise 2, Atalanta 1
• Membership Brugge 2, Marseille 2
• Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Tottenham 1
• Monaco 1, Juventus 0
• Atletico Madrid 3, Bodo/Glimt 0
• Athletic Membership 2, Sporting 1
• Ajax 2, Olympiacos 0
• Paris Saint-Germain 4, Newcastle 1
• Pafos 1, Slavia Prague 0

In case you’ve been following alongside and monitoring the desk in your head, to begin with truthful play. Secondly you may assume, how are Napoli with nothing to play for beating Chelsea, vying for prime eight? Properly Napoli do have one thing to play for, Antonio Conte’s burning rage at each membership that has as soon as employed him. That is value three factors eight days every week.

Now we have addressed that… onto the desk, with a number of ideas to observe.

… Sure that’s Atletico Madrid lacking out on qualification by objectives scored. One aim scored, to be exact. That battle for twenty fourth goes all the way down to the wire. Will probably be virtually inconceivable for it to not be up within the air till the previous few kicks of the group stage. The margins are so completely tight that on this state of affairs a few objectives going the proper manner for Athletic Membership, maybe a win in Prague or a draw at St. James’ Park, they usually’d comfortably make the knockouts.

As soon as extra this desk speaks to the harm accomplished by attracts in an eight recreation league. In 2024-25 Bologna misplaced just one extra recreation than Borussia Dortmund’s three. The Bundesliga aspect, nevertheless, received their remaining 5 and completed tenth. Bologna received certainly one of theirs and have been twenty eighth.

The opposite level of notice is simply what number of factors have been accrued on the prime of the desk. Predictive anticipated factors fashions will are likely to underestimate what number of the perfect groups within the league get however it’s also true that final season solely Liverpool cleared the 20 level mark. Right here you may want to take action simply to hit the highest 5. The case for that’s loads of the most important groups in Europe simply look rather a lot higher this 12 months. Some others like Manchester Metropolis have had attracts you’d wish to get, Arsenal too have been helped out too by the fixture laptop.

Will all this show to be correct? Oh, virtually definitely not. However we’ll choose this up once more on the halfway level (and possibly get it fallacious once more). Such is the enjoyment of the Champions League. It very not often performs to expectations.

The right way to watch

The opening spherical of league part fixtures will happen throughout three days – Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday – and all of it will likely be accessible to observe on Paramount+, with choose extra protection on CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports activities Golazo Community. Pre-match protection begins at 12 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network every day earlier than choose matches air at 12:45 p.m. ET and three p.m. ET, with post-match protection transitioning to Paramount+ and CBS Sports activities Golazo Community. The Golazo Present will likely be free on CBS Sports activities Golazo Community for Matchday 1, whereas protection concludes on CBS Sports activities Golazo Community with new editions of The Champions Membership, which will likely be simulcast on YouTube, and Scoreline.