Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have a problem (and no, it’s not the refs): Sando’s Pick Six

Cowl 7 | Monday A every day NFL vacation spot that gives in-depth evaluation of soccer’s greatest tales. Every Monday, Mike Sando breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.

Patrick Mahomes screamed. He threw down his helmet in anger. The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs’ MVP quarterback misplaced his composure on the sideline at Arrowhead Stadium to a level unseen beforehand. He was apoplectic.

By no means earlier than might Mahomes recall dropping a recreation on an officiating name just like the one referee Carl Cheffers’ crew made to negate a go-ahead Chiefs landing. Mahomes had shrugged off a blatantly dangerous missed pass-interference name in Inexperienced Bay only one week in the past, however offensive offside to wipe out a Travis Kelce improvised lateral TD within the closing 90 seconds of a 20-17 house defeat to Buffalo? This was an excessive amount of.

If any crew was imagined to run scorching and soften down in a slender defeat with playoff seeding implications Sunday, the Sean McDermott-coached Payments have been that crew. Their week had bottomed out with “Saturday Night Live” parodying McDermott for citing the teamwork of 9/11 terrorists throughout a 2019 crew assembly — considered one of a number of damaging revelations from the Go Long expose casting McDermott as an out-of-touch, unaccountable micromanager.

Since when do the Chiefs lose the best way the Payments are imagined to fall brief? Since now, is when. As a result of the margin for error has evaporated for Kansas Metropolis, complicating its push for an additional Tremendous Bowl.

The Decide Six column sizes up the place the Chiefs stand, why their margin for error is gone and what it might imply for the long run, with a Dan Marino profession parallel to remember, even when it’s untimely now. As for the penalty Mahomes and the Chiefs have been so upset about, we’ll unravel that one as nicely, with insights aplenty from NFL contacts.

The complete menu for Week 14:

• Mahomes, Chiefs and Dan Marino
• Offensive offside? Right here’s the deal
• Zach Wilson, Justin Fields audition
• MVP replace: Case for Tyreek Hill
• On Packers’ 16-0 December document
• Two-minute drills: Sam Howell’s future

1. Right here is the place the Chiefs stand, why Dan Marino is related, ideas on Travis Kelce and the brand new actuality at broad receiver.

Mahomes’ beginning document earlier than Sunday was 46-2, counting playoffs, when Kansas Metropolis held the opponent beneath 21 factors, per TruMedia. That included 16-2 when the opponent scored 17-20 factors.

These information are actually 46-3 and 16-3, respectively. Each earlier defeats have been oddities in opposition to the Indianapolis Colts in 2019 and final season. This one damage extra as a result of it extra precisely mirrored the place the Chiefs stand on offense. This was much less of a one-off than these Indy video games. It was the sport after the Chiefs misplaced 27-19 in Inexperienced Bay, which was two weeks after the Chiefs misplaced at house to Philadelphia, which was two video games after the Chiefs misplaced to a Denver crew that didn’t even attempt to play offense.

• The place the Chiefs stand: The chart beneath reveals AFC groups’ week-to-week likelihood modifications as they chase the highest seed within the convention, a first-round bye and home-field benefit all through the convention playoffs.

The Athletic’s Austin Mock maintains the mannequin used for the projections. By his accounting, the Chiefs’ possibilities have plummeted from 60 % getting into Week 11 to 11 % now, nicely beneath the Miami Dolphins (53 %) and Baltimore Ravens (34 %).

“I’d be nervous about them on the highway in opposition to Miami,” a coach with AFC East expertise stated. “You will Miami, and it’ll be scorching as hell, versus bringing Miami into Kansas Metropolis and it’s freezing? That could be a huge distinction.”

I believe the Chiefs will win out in opposition to the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals and Chargers, however they aren’t going through any of these groups within the playoffs.

• The Marino warning: Mahomes has performed 11 postseason video games at house, three at impartial websites (Tremendous Bowls) and nil on the highway. That has helped him win two championships in his first 5 seasons because the Chiefs’ beginning quarterback. Now that the Chiefs’ Tremendous Bowl path is more likely to take them outdoors Arrowhead, it’s a very good time to contemplate historic precedent.

Per Professional Soccer Reference, Mahomes is considered one of 34 quarterbacks since 1950 to start out at the very least 10 postseason video games. Of these quarterbacks, Mahomes and Marino are the one ones to make their first six playoff begins at house or within the Tremendous Bowl.

Marino used that early edge to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl in his second season. However he performed seven of his remaining 11 playoff video games on the highway, together with six of his closing seven, and by no means reached one other Tremendous Bowl. For his postseason profession, Marino completed 7-3 at house, 1-6 on the highway and 0-1 at impartial websites.

Whereas there may be each purpose to count on Mahomes and Andy Reid to succeed in future Tremendous Bowls, and I might by no means guess in opposition to them, there was each purpose to suppose Marino and Don Shula would attain extra of them as nicely.

The trail turns into extra difficult within the absence of home-field benefit, for 2 causes.

Past the challenges related to highway video games, the lower-seeded groups that should journey merely aren’t nearly as good as higher-seeded groups that keep house. If the Chiefs discover themselves on the highway this postseason — and extra ceaselessly in future postseasons as Kelce declines and finally retires — it’ll be as a result of they aren’t nearly as good sooner or later as they’ve been prior to now. Which now seems a bit extra seemingly.

• The Kelce query: From 2010 into 2015, Tom Brady’s landing fee was about twice as excessive when tight finish Rob Gronkowski was on the sphere, in comparison with when Gronk was not enjoying. There have been instances when the New England offense struggled to operate with out him.

Mahomes feels at the very least as reliant on Kelce as Brady was on Gronkowski. The distinction is, Kelce has not missed many video games, so we haven’t seen what the offense seems like with out him (I’m picturing the 2019 Patriots, but when Brady have been cellular). We now have seen Kelce’s manufacturing decline together with the manufacturing of the offense, and so we marvel which one is affecting the opposite most, particularly now that Kelce is 34.

“It’s humorous you say that,” a basic supervisor from one other crew stated. “I used to be watching him run down on that Hail Mary (in opposition to Inexperienced Bay), and I used to be considering he is perhaps virtually performed. I say that understanding he has been productive at instances this yr. However what the primary signal of decline for a participant like Travis Kelce is? That he’s not the identical participant late within the season. It means his physique will not be recovering.”

Kelce is averaging 11.2 yards per reception, a profession low. Respect for him nonetheless runs excessive.

“Kelce is ok,” an offensive coach countered. “He has by no means been good lining up and beating a man press-man on him, however they do such a very good job of transferring him, motioning him, change-release routes, and numerous catches come on Mahomes’ scrambles when individuals lose observe of him.”

Former NFL GM Randy Mueller has known as Kelce the most effective he’s ever seen at discovering gentle spots in zones. He thinks there’s an excessive amount of stress on Mahomes and Kelce to hold the offense, and never sufficient assist from the broad receivers, particularly now that Kelce is older. Which brings us to our closing level.

• The receivers aren’t adequate: With the sport on the road Sunday, the Chiefs pulled off an all-time nice play. Mahomes threw downfield to Kelce for a 25-yard acquire. Kelce threw the ball backward to Kadarius Toney, who bumped into the top zone for the go-ahead landing with 1:25 remaining. It ought to have been an epic second in Chiefs historical past. However there was a flag on the play. Replays confirmed Toney lining up offside. The penalty was a killer.

Play was known as again however cannot consider Kelce tried this 😮

📺: #BUFvsKC on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/LREwwhaQ1N

— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2023

Mahomes was irate, however let’s zoom out for a second and think about the state of affairs objectively. With a sensible shot on the AFC’s No. 1 seed on the road, the Chiefs have been solely as sturdy as their weakest hyperlink. They have been betting on a receiver deemed expendable by the New York Giants, who’ve been determined for manufacturing of any sort on the place. If Toney have been a seasoned professional identified for his consideration to element, the Giants by no means would have traded him.

The Chiefs made the commerce as a result of they have been determined. In a important spot, Toney lined up in violation of the foundations. There have been larger surprises.

“They’re one receiver brief,” a coach whose crew confronted the Chiefs stated. “Can they get sufficient from Kelce, and may they get sufficient from their operating backs within the flat? You take a look at the common depth of goal for Mahomes, and it’s actually brief. They will get by if they’ll have an enormous surplus from the tight ends and operating backs.”

Per TruMedia, Mahomes’ common depth of goal (6.9 yards) and common depth per completion (4.4 yards) are profession lows, because the chart above reveals. That’s not any referee’s fault, however it’s a reflection of the Chiefs’ diminished margin for error. The place Kadarius Toney strains up out of the blue issues an incredible deal to them.

2. Does Mahomes have a degree concerning the offensive offside name? He’s not getting a lot sympathy.

Down decide Mike Carr threw the flag immediately, nicely earlier than Mahomes threw the ball to Kelce, and nicely earlier than anybody knew the offensive offside penalty in opposition to Toney would wipe out an unimaginable play.

“It’s powerful to swallow, not solely from me, and soccer basically, to remove greatness like that,” Mahomes stated afterward. “For a man like Travis to make a play like that, you need to see the fellows on the sphere determine the sport. … I’ve by no means had offensive offsides known as. If it does, they warn you. There wasn’t a warning your entire recreation. And then you definitely make a name like that within the closing minute? One other recreation, we’re speaking concerning the refs. It’s not what we wish for the NFL. It’s not what we wish for soccer.”

GO DEEPER

Chiefs rip refs, however the actuality is one other mistake by a receiver value them one other win

Tons to unpack right here. Terry McAulay, the previous NFL referee now offering evaluation for NBC, famous that officers have known as offensive offside 11 instances this season, up from twice in 2022 and as soon as in 2021. It was known as a twelfth time throughout the Philadelphia-Dallas recreation. McAulay known as Toney’s violation a simple name, and in keeping with how the rule has been interpreted this season.

On-air officiating analysts sometimes rally to the assist of their on-field mates, however in a league full of coaches and executives embittered by inconsistent calls, there was no outrage over this one.

“The road-of-scrimmage officers are in control of your entire impartial zone — pass-rusher alignments, heart head bobs, all these issues,” an NFL crew exec stated. “When somebody aligns as ridiculously offsides as Toney did, the officers can’t see in there to do their jobs. It’s a simple flag when it’s that blatant.”

The NFL this season has despatched officiating enforcement tapes to groups with a give attention to presnap alignment guidelines for offensive linemen on “tush push” performs, based on league sources. A type of movies from November referenced receiver alignment, noting that officers would throw flags if the violations have been blatant. The video included an instance play when offensive offside was known as in opposition to a receiver.

“It was the best name,” a former head coach stated. “It’s so apparent when you find yourself near the sort out. I imply, I can’t consider there can be anybody that you’d discuss to who would say that was not a penalty.”

3. Justin Fields and Zach Wilson are auditioning for one thing. They helped their causes Sunday.

Fields and Wilson mixed to go for 524 yards and three touchdowns in main the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, respectively, to upset victories.

Quarterbacks drafted within the first spherical normally take pleasure in lengthy runways earlier than their groups surrender on them. However regardless of how nicely Fields and Wilson end the season, each could possibly be headed elsewhere by way of circumstances they not management.

Fields could possibly be expendable if the Bears land the primary choose within the draft, acquired from Carolina, which is first within the order by two video games now. Wilson’s future is elsewhere so long as Aaron Rodgers stays within the image for the Jets. The higher these 2021 first-round picks play, the higher their markets will develop into. These could be win-win-win conditions — wins for the quarterbacks, wins for his or her groups, wins for groups needing quarterbacks.

The desk beneath compares Fields’ manufacturing in his 17 most up-to-date video games to his manufacturing within the 17 begins earlier than that. Would a crew reminiscent of Atlanta be prepared to guess on that?

There isn’t any comparable 17-game break up for Wilson. He was higher Sunday in beating Houston than he has been virtually any time beforehand.

GO DEEPER

Jets lastly open playbook for Zach Wilson, who lets it rip for signature win

Fields is the attention-grabbing case examine. In his present kind, he’ll scare two coordinators each recreation — his personal on offense and the opponent’s on protection.

There have been a number of examples Sunday throughout the Bears’ 28-13 victory over the Lions.

First-and-goal from the 9, high of the fourth quarter. Fields misses an open Cole Kmet for what ought to have been a landing. It was considered one of a number of routine passes virtually any beginning quarterback ought to make, however considered one of a number of on this class Fields is liable to miss. Later within the recreation, within the four-minute offense, Fields missed an open D.J. Moore over the center, serving to Detroit get the ball again.

However two performs after lacking Kmet, Fields pulled off an 11-yard landing scramble that maybe just one or two different gamers on the planet might execute so simply.

.@justnfields takes it himself!

📺: #DETvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/Fql4Ez4Si3

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 10, 2023

“He misses throws anybody ought to make, however he additionally makes performs along with his toes that nobody else within the league makes,” a veteran coach stated. “The $100 million query is, what’s extra vital? Is it the performs everybody makes that he ought to make, however doesn’t make? Or is it the performs he makes which are so unbelievable that nearly nobody else makes?”

4. What would Tyreek Hill must do to get my MVP vote? Maintain doing what he’s doing, probably.

We had enjoyable final week explaining why Brock Purdy’s MVP case was turning into more durable to oppose than assist based mostly on the San Francisco 49ers’ sheer manufacturing. We are able to debate to what diploma Purdy helps the 49ers versus the opposite manner round, however in the long run, manufacturing tends to win out in these MVP discussions.

I’ve up to date the chart we printed final week, evaluating mixed passing and speeding EPA for the main quarterback candidates. The blue line represents the common for the previous 10 quarterback MVPs.

Lamar Jackson had a monster day for Baltimore (9.9 EPA) in opposition to the Rams, adopted in Week 14 by Purdy (5.6). Dak Prescott (-1.1), Josh Allen (-2.7), Mahomes (-4.8) and Hurts (-11.8) slipped backward from an EPA standpoint, though Prescott specifically stays a robust candidate.

Quarterbacks have received the previous 10 MVPs, but when none produces close to record-setting ranges, I’d lean towards Hill, offered he units the single-season document for yardage. Sure, quarterbacks are extra useful than receivers, however I don’t suppose we have to interpret the phrase “useful” so actually. An all-time nice season at broad receiver can trump a quarterback’s good season, at the very least for my part.

Calvin Johnson set the single-season receiving yardage document with 1,964 in 2012, however his Lions have been 4-12 and Adrian Peterson received MVP honors with a 2,097-yard speeding season. Hill is on tempo to beat Johnson’s document by 10 yards in his sixteenth recreation, along with his Dolphins 9-3 and within the hunt for the AFC’s high seed getting into Monday evening’s matchup in opposition to the Tennessee Titans.

5. The Packers’ 16-0 document in December beneath coach Matt LaFleur is spectacular, however not notably mysterious.

Oddsmakers favor Inexperienced Bay by 6.5 on the highway in opposition to the New York Giants on Monday evening. The fats level unfold is a superb place to start out when explaining why the crew has by no means misplaced in December since LaFleur took over in 2019.

The Packers have performed a very good job in these video games, however they need to not essentially embrace narratives about “studying how one can end” or “enjoying our greatest ball in December” — tempting because it is perhaps to counsel they’ve discovered an edge.

Getting into Week 14, the groups with the most effective December information for the reason that Packers employed LaFleur — Inexperienced Bay (16-0), Kansas Metropolis (16-2), Dallas (13-4) and Tampa Bay (12-5) — had one thing else in widespread.

These groups additionally have been those favored to win their December video games by the very best common margins: Kansas Metropolis (-7.9), Inexperienced Bay (-5.7), Dallas (-5.2) and Tampa Bay (-4.6).

Under we see all of the LaFleur-era December victories, stacked by how a lot Inexperienced Bay was favored or an underdog.

The LaFleur-era Packers have been favored to win 13 of these 16 December video games, together with 10 of them by at the very least 6.5 factors. They beat Kansas Metropolis because the underdog final week. That is probably the most encouraging a part of the December success beneath LaFleur, as a result of it affirms the development we’ve seen from the Packers just lately, and suggests an upward trajectory because the playoffs method.

Inexperienced Bay beneath LaFleur has coated the unfold in December on the fifth-best fee (.625), which could higher contextualize the Packers’ sturdy play late within the season. The Rams, Ravens, Cowboys and Dolphins have coated at even increased charges since 2019.

6. Two-minute drill: Sam Howell’s future, Jake Browning’s current and extra

The Commanders’ stoop from 4-5 to 4-9 is pushing the crew towards the highest of the 2024 draft order, bringing into play the possibility to pick out a quarterback early within the first spherical. Evaluating present starter Sam Howell may also be a part of the method. That analysis will not be but full.

Of word: Over their previous six video games, Howell and the Commanders have minimize their sack fee by greater than half from the primary seven video games. This has helped minimize in half the variety of third-down conditions with greater than 10 yards required for a primary down.

Whereas quarterbacks play main roles in sack charges, the statistical splits within the desk above additionally replicate an vital change to the offensive line. Tyler Larsen changed Nick Gates at heart for the previous six video games, a change that appears to have calmed a few of the chaos up entrance for Washington.

• Hat tip to Bengals: Joe Burrow’s season-ending damage offered cowl for the Bengals to reset their targets and fade away. As an alternative, Cincinnati has defeated Jacksonville and Indianapolis, two groups battling for playoff positioning, in successive weeks. The Bengals didn’t win these video games with unsustainable performs on protection or particular groups. They received these video games with Jake Browning producing numbers indistinguishable from those Burrow may need produced.

Burrow’s best two-game stretch this season fell in opposition to San Francisco and Buffalo in Weeks 8-9. Under, we see how Browning’s two-game beginning stretch in opposition to Jacksonville and Indianapolis evaluate.

That’s phenomenal manufacturing over two video games when transitioning from a Tier 1 starter in Burrow to a backup in Browning.

• Extraordinary Joe: How comfortable are you, Cleveland Browns followers, when 38-year-old, off-the-couch Joe Flacco supplies an enormous improve over the $230 million quarterback your crew is married to for an additional three seasons?

The road of questioning Browns coach Kevin Stefanski confronted after Flacco’s debut recreation final week had me laughing. Beat reporters protecting the the crew sounded as if they’d simply watched prime Peyton Manning play for his or her crew, when in actuality a merely purposeful Flacco appeared like a present from the soccer gods after watching Deshaun Watson and his backups flounder all season.

Flacco was not superb within the Browns’ 31-27 victory over the Jaguars on Sunday, however he handed for 311 yards and three touchdowns, together with two to tight finish David Njoku in opposition to blitzes and a second-half knockout blow on fourth-and-3.

• Rams’ Achilles’ heel: The Rams going toe-to-toe with Baltimore after which dropping on a punt-return landing in extra time was not as stunning because it might sound. The Rams have performed higher groups powerful a number of instances this season. They checked that field once more Sunday. The Rams even have ranked close to the underside of the NFL in particular groups EPA. This might replicate their roster building. With just one defensive participant incomes greater than $1.3 million, they aren’t in place to fill their particular groups protection items with seasoned veterans. They nonetheless shouldn’t surrender a punt-return landing in extra time after enjoying so nicely for thus lengthy. Tough.

• Explosive OBJ: Odell Beckham Jr. rising as a productive receiver for the Ravens in Mark Andrews’ absence stood out Sunday. Beckham’s 4 catches for 97 yards included three receptions gaining greater than 15 yards. It’s the second time in three video games Beckham had three explosive receptions. He had 16 such video games beforehand in his profession, plus 4 video games with 4 explosive receptions. Producing at that degree so late within the season, and after years of decline, needs to be very encouraging for Baltimore.

OBJ doing OBJ issues

Tune in on FOX! pic.twitter.com/Y9xYz0rZe7

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 10, 2023

OH MY GOODNESS

LAMAR TO OBJ!!!!!!!

Tune in on FOX! pic.twitter.com/EhczPj5eeM

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 10, 2023

GO DEEPER

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