Oregon vs. Indiana prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 CFP semifinal picks from proven model

The 2026 Peach Bowl will see Big Ten teams squaring off on Friday as the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers face the No. 5 Oregon Ducks. This 2026 College Football Playoff semifinal contest is a rematch of a mid-October game in which the Hoosiers prevailed on the road, 30-20. That remains the only loss for the 13-1 Ducks, who are coming off a dominant 23-0 shutout win over Texas Tech. As for the 14-0 Hoosiers, they are coming off a 38-3 blowout of Alabama and have aspirations of becoming the first 16-0 team in college football history.

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Hoosiers are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Oregon vs. Indiana odds per SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points is 48.5, having risen 2 points since the opening line. Before making any Indiana vs. Oregon picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Oregon vs. Indiana. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Indiana vs. Oregon:

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Why Oregon can cover

While Indiana won the regular season matchup, in terms of CFP rematches, the team that lost the first contest is 4-1 ATS in the rematch. The Ducks have also covered at at 75% clip as an underdog since 2023, while IU is just 5-4 ATS over its last nine versus Big Ten teams. On the field, Oregon possesses the better offense both on the ground and through the air. The Ducks average more passing yards than Indiana, with a higher completion percentage, in addition to averaging more rushing yards, as well as more yards per carry. On the other side of the ball, Oregon is coming off a season-high of four takeaways in the win over Texas Tech, and the Ducks had a pick-six of Fernando Mendoza in the first contest. Mendoza has also been under pressure as of late as he’s been sacked three-plus times in four of his last five games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why Indiana can cover

No one can match Indiana’s production on both sides of the ball, as it has the No. 2 scoring defense and No. 3 scoring offense, and no other FBS team ranks in the top five of both. The Hoosiers have allowed two touchdowns, total, over their last four games, and they’ve given up a rushing touchdown in just one of their last nine games. Mendoza leads the nation with both 36 passing touchdowns and with a 184.7 passer rating, and Indiana isn’t the type of team that hurts itself. Just one team in all of college football commits fewer penalty yards per game, while just two teams in the country commit fewer turnovers per game. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Indiana vs. Oregon picks

SportsLine’s model has simulated Oregon vs. Indiana 10,000 times and is going Under on the total, projecting 46 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Indiana vs. Oregon, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Oregon vs. Indiana spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that’s simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.