It is a bizarre time for operating backs as an entire.
First, we have now a whole lot of the mainstays who’ve been staples for Fantasy lineups for years getting older. That typically means they’re about to both take a discount in pay or change groups. Neither a kind of issues is especially good — a minimize in wage might imply a minimize in touches the next season, and going to a brand new staff would not assure a lot in the best way of performing like they did with their earlier staff. In each circumstances, the operating again might be nearer to underperforming than sustaining their stage of play. This spring, the operating again free-agent class boasts a whole lot of these guys.
Compounding the difficulty is a 2024 NFL Draft rookie class that lacks a number of every-down playmakers at operating again. There aren’t any studs like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. Certain, there are many rushers who’re good at one or two issues, however not each factor, and so it’d take a particular state of affairs for any certainly one of them to be handed a big workload from week to week. It would not assist that the near-consensus RB1 of the crop, Jonathon Brooks from Texas, is recovering from a torn ACL suffered this previous November.
Tack on the pattern of NFL teams purposely not trusting one man to deal with the vast majority of the speeding chores, and it results in the type of unnerving situation the place operating backs turn out to be complementary elements of offenses.
Fewer Christian McCaffreys, extra David Montgomerys.
So even the trolling Fantasy Football managers who love downplaying and even mocking the significance of operating backs will discover this second in time fascinating. On one hand, this yr’s crop of free-agent operating backs may need a large influence on the Fantasy panorama in 2024 as a result of groups cannot rely on a rookie to do what they will do. On the opposite, they’re all beginning to inch nearer to that time of their careers the place the sport not matches the sport.
Two years from now, none of those guys would possibly matter. And when you think about the names, that is a jarring thought.
Listed below are the veterans who’re set to be free brokers.
Jacobs struggled to spherical into kind shortly in 2023 after holding out of coaching camp. From Week 4 by means of Week 12 he seemed just a little extra just like the league-winner from 2022, averaging 22.2 touches and 16 PPR factors per recreation (touchdowns helped), however a quad damage in Week 14 trashed the remainder of his season. Jacobs additionally faltered in necessary metrics like averted tackles and explosive runs. If a staff believes the gradual begin from not being at coaching camp is the scapegoat then Jacobs might simply discover a spot the place he is getting a great exercise each week. Fantasy managers is perhaps just a little extra skeptical since his thunderous 2022 is his solely full-season out of 5 the place he averaged greater than 14.3 PPR factors per recreation. Age is not a giant concern but — he’ll be 26 this coming season. The Raiders do not appear prepared to make use of the franchise tag on Jacobs, and new Normal Supervisor Tom Telesco mentioned he anticipates the staff utilizing a number of operating backs this season. It seems like Jacobs shall be on a brand new staff, which could not be a foul factor.
Enjoyable Fantasy touchdown spot: Baltimore. The Ravens might improve their offense with Jacobs, a more healthy, skilled again who has a great observe document in a power-gap scheme. His catching prowess might assist too if the Ravens ever needed to throw to their backs certainly one of these years.
For the second yr in a row, Barkley’s future is up within the air. Nevertheless, current stories counsel the Giants will NOT franchise tag him once more and this aligns with reports in late February suggesting one isn’t coming. Final season, when he was 26, Barkley rode the wave of high-volume (288 touches) to a top-10 end in PPR Fantasy factors per recreation, however he wasn’t environment friendly (3.9 yards per carry; his second season out of three underneath 4.0) and he did not catch the ball as a lot (2.9 receptions per recreation was a career-low). His 10 complete touchdowns had been a cologne that coated up his paltry 5 video games with over 100 complete yards (and two with over 120 yards) regardless of getting 18 or extra touches in 9 of 14 video games. And, sadly, Barkley was twenty first out of 23 qualifying operating backs in each averted sort out fee (12.6%) and runs for zero or unfavourable yards (25.1% of his makes an attempt). That is a whole lot of knowledge to easily counsel that Barkley may not be the man he as soon as was, and virtually actually will not ever be for Fantasy once more until he is locked right into a heavy workload.
Enjoyable Fantasy touchdown spot: Houston. I acquired talked into this one by CBS Fantasy editor extraordinaire Dan Schneier. If the Texans offense made Devin Singletary a great starter in 2023, think about what it might do for Barkley. Bear in mind: That offense is a duplicate of what Kyle Shanahan runs in San Francisco. It might imply one, possibly two, big-time years for Barkley.
Earlier than you assume Henry falls into Fantasy irrelevance in his age-30 season, be aware that he averaged 14.8 PPR factors per recreation, 13.1 non-PPR factors per recreation and 4.2 yards per carry in a marketing campaign the place the remainder of his offense, to place it mildly, didn’t do lots to assist him. Take inventory of the truth that he had 14 or extra touches in 13 video games and averaged 17.9 PPR factors/15.9 non-PPR factors in these video games. Even when the sport script was speculated to utterly make Henry a bust, he would generally discover methods to attain and be useful to Fantasy managers. There’s all that, after which there’s this: His state of affairs figures to enhance it doesn’t matter what staff he performs on until it is Tennessee — and even then, it could possibly’t be as unhealthy because it was final season. Heck yeah there’s going to be a whole lot of danger to drafting Henry, however nobody’s doing that in Spherical 1 anymore … or Spherical 2 … or (possibly) Spherical 3. I’ve a humorous feeling {that a} contending staff will lure Henry to overpower defenses for another yr, giving him a possible profitable recreation script virtually each week. You must wait to draft him, however do not out-and-out ignore him.
Enjoyable Fantasy touchdown spot: Dallas. Put Henry in Ezekiel Elliott’s function from 2022 and anticipate some big-time numbers. Whilst a part-time again, Elliott averaged 12.4 PPR factors on 15.4 carries per recreation then. It is doable Henry might eclipse that.
We banked on Pollard maintaining his sturdy effectivity from 2022. Did not occur. Undecided it may be pinned on his damaged leg from 2022 both as a result of he had two environment friendly video games over the primary three weeks towards what grew to become inferior competitors (Giants, Cardinals). From Week 4 on he averaged a meek 11.8 PPR factors per recreation with below-ideal metrics throughout the board save for a 34.2% five-yard rush fee and a 21.6% averted sort out fee. Touchdowns and large runs eluded him, and that is what did him in. It stands to motive that he will not ever get an opportunity to steer a backfield once more since he floundered on 18.1 touches per recreation, but thrived the yr prior on 13.7 touches per recreation when he was splitting with Ezekiel Elliott. For those who get within the mindset of trusting Pollard to the extent of a part-time again, you possibly can see your self drafting the 27-year-old once more with revised expectations — and at a decrease ADP.
Enjoyable Fantasy touchdown spot: Dallas. Sounds humorous, but when the Cowboys follow Pollard within the function he had in 2022 — a task they need to be snug utilizing him in — then he might nonetheless salvage worth as a RB2.
We will not blame Swift’s 12.5 PPR factors per recreation in 2023 on the operating again’s efficiency. When referred to as upon, Swift averaged 4.6 yards per rush and was within the higher half of qualifying rushers in averted sort out fee, explosive rush fee and run fee of five-plus yards (38.4% of his carries!). We CAN blame Swift’s lagging Fantasy manufacturing on Jalen Hurts and the Brotherly Shove annoyingly stealing practically each short-yardage landing. Not that Swift was ever a goal-line wrecking ball, however even in Detroit he had some possibilities to attain from quick vary. Maybe the extra regarding downside is that the Eagles had been the second staff in as a few years to kind of bitter on Swift as a stud runner: He had 20.4 touches per recreation from Week 2 by means of 8, then 15.4 from Week 8 by means of their playoff loss. It is virtually just like the league realizes he is a proficient, versatile runner, however not one they wish to decide to as a result of they suppose he is frail. At the least he’ll be simply 25 years younger this season.
Enjoyable Fantasy touchdown spot: Minnesota. Swift’s receiving expertise had been underutilized final yr and may very well be an enormous addition to the Vikings offense (particularly for any video games T.J. Hockenson misses getting back from a torn ACL). Swift was additionally extra environment friendly than any rusher the Vikings had final season. If he might keep wholesome, Swift might resurrect his profession right here.
There isn’t any denying that Ekeler had a troublesome 2023. Was it as a result of he suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 and by no means bounced again all the best way? Was it as a result of the Chargers offensive line grew to become problematic? Might it’s as a result of he turned 28 (and can thus be 29 when subsequent season begins)? It may very well be a mixture of the whole lot, however the probability that Ekeler is again in a task that provides him 18 touches per week feels slim. However that does not imply Ekeler will not thrive in a part-time function the place he handles 10 carries and 5 targets per recreation. His effectivity might really be fairly good there, to not point out a developed ground for full-PPR scoring. However the landing manufacturing might very a lot flip to mud. He is one other again you need to anticipate to accept at a reduced ADP.
Enjoyable Fantasy touchdown spot: Denver. If we’ll lock Ekeler right into a passing-downs job, why not do it with the staff that threw to their operating backs probably the most in 2023? It is a staple of Sean Payton’s offense — good for Ekeler.
Different operating backs who’re free brokers:
Younger however with flaws: J.Ok. Dobbins (25), Zack Moss (26), Antonio Gibson (26), A.J. Dillon (26)
Not fairly outdated however not fairly superior both: Devin Singletary (27), D’Onta Foreman (28)
Outdated-timers who may very well be part-timers: Kareem Hunt (29), Ezekiel Elliott (29), Gus Edwards (29)
Who’s in search of a RB?
These are the groups anticipated to search for a operating again, be it a starter/lead sort (RB1) or a backup/1B sort (RB2).
