NFL wild card overreactions: Josh Allen is the biggest X factor of playoffs

Wild Card Weekend really emphasized the wild aspect of the opening round of the NFL playoffs. Saturday’s doubleheader saw both contests come down to the wire, capping off with the Chicago Bears rallying from a double-digit deficit to take down the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams fended off an upset on the road at the hands of the Carolina Panthers in the earlier window. 

Before we could even catch our breath, Sunday’s action carried the baton and continued to raise everyone’s collective blood pressure. The tripleheader started in Jacksonville, where Josh Allen was able to will the Buffalo Bills to a road win over the Jaguars, scoring a touchdown in the final minute. That gave the franchise its first road playoff win since the 1992 AFC Championship. Then, San Francisco stormed into Philly and took down the defending champion Eagles thanks to a 13-point fourth quarter. To conclude Sunday’s action, the Patriots’ defense threw the Chargers’ offense in a locker in a 16-3 New England victory: Los Angeles’ three points scored and 207 total yards of offense are both the franchise’s playoff worsts since 1992. 

Is that enough drama for you? Well, we have even more on deck along with Monday’s showdown between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

With the dust starting to settle on Wild Card Weekend, how do we make sense of all the madness that just unfolded? Which storylines are concrete and which are mere overreactions? Below, we’ll dissect some of the biggest items from Day 2 of Wild Card Weekend and determine which storylines are legit and which are overblown. 

To check out our overreactions for Day 1 of Wild Card Weekend, including potential fallout in Green Bay after its loss to Chicago.

Josh Allen is the biggest X factor in the playoffs

Overreactions vs. reality: Reality

The defending NFL MVP remains the great equalizer of these playoffs. For the most part, the Jaguars had Buffalo in the crosshairs, and it felt like they were in a strong position to pull off the win and advance. So, what happened? Josh Allen put on the Superman cape. Whatever Buffalo needed down the stretch, Allen was able to deliver, which included a game-altering QB sneak on fourth-and-1 to set up what would be the game-winning touchdown (another rush by Allen). 

In the fourth quarter, Allen led two touchdown drives while completing nine of his 11 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown, while adding 21 yards rushing and one more score on the ground. There aren’t many (if any) quarterbacks remaining in the playoffs capable of pulling off those types of heroics, which makes Buffalo dangerous even as a wild card team. The Bills have the best quarterback in the playoffs, and that might be enough to get them over the hump. 

Jaguars’ loss proves they were fool’s gold

Overreactions vs. reality: Overreaction

The lights may have been a little too bright for the Jaguars down the stretch of their playoff showdown with the Bills, particularly when it comes to Trevor Lawrence. After a white-hot end to the regular season (19 total touchdowns and one turnover over the final six games), Jacksonville’s quarterback had two interceptions in the playoff loss, including a season-ending turnover in the final seconds of the game as the Jaguars attempted to march down the field in hopes of either tying or taking the late lead. Lawrence completed just 18 of his 30 pass attempts (60%) for 207 yards, three touchdowns, and those two picks. 

While that wasn’t the most pristine outing for Lawrence and the Jags, it doesn’t mean that what they accomplished in 2025 was hollow. You can make the case that they simply ran into an immovable object — Josh Allen. Jacksonville was a sleeper candidate by many to go deep these playoffs, so seeing the Jaguars go one-and-done is a disappointing outcome. That said, this was a tremendously successful season in Duval County. In his first year on the job, Liam Coen led the Jaguars to a 13-win season, which is tied for the third-most wins by a rookie coach in NFL history. Jacksonville was also just the third team in league history to win 13 games after a 13-loss season.  

More importantly, Coen did seem to get the best out of Lawrence, and that’s a massive development, as he should only improve heading into his second season in the system. The regular season success is there, and now it’s time to work on the next stage of development, which is to translate that into the postseason. 

Injuries will prevent 49ers from reaching Super Bowl

Overreactions vs. reality: Overreaction

There’s no denying that the San Francisco 49ers have been hit hard by injuries. They’ve been among the most injured teams in the entire league and have lost foundational pieces throughout the year, including tight end George Kittle, who suffered an Achilles injury during Sunday’s playoff win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Here’s a quick rundown of the notable names they’ve been missing this season. 

When you take a look at that group of players, you’d think that San Francisco’s ceiling would have to be lowered, right? Well, even when we think that the next injury will be the one that breaks the camel’s back, the 49ers continue to put together wins and have now advanced to the divisional round after taking down the defending champs. 

They’ve shown enough perseverance that it’s hard to put a cap on what they can accomplish, especially when they have some of the best coaching that the NFL has to offer. Kyle Shanahan masterfully pulled the strings of the offense, deploying a Jauan Jennings trick-play touchdown pass at the exact right moment. 

Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh put on a masterclass, shutting down the Eagles offense. With that kind of brain trust, they shouldn’t be counted out, despite having a hand tied behind their back due to injury. 

A.J. Brown will be the subject of trade rumors this offseason

Overreactions vs. reality: Reality

Something needs to give in the A.J. Brown saga with the Philadelphia Eagles. It was a greatest hits album during Sunday’s loss to the 49ers as the wideout was going viral for all the wrong reasons. In the first half, Brown dropped a third-down pass from Jalen Hurts, which then sparked a sideline altercation with coach Nick Sirianni, and the two needed to be separated. 

While Sirianni brushed it off when speaking to Fox Sports sideline reporter Erin Andrews, it’s the latest chapter in a long list of turmoil for the wideout. Later on, as Philly tried to retake the lead, Brown also had a pretty bad drop on a pass he should’ve hauled in. The Eagles were able to convert on the following play, but Brown didn’t exactly shine when looked upon, and finished with just three catches for 25 yards on seven targets (tied for the second-most on the team) in the loss. 

Brown has been the subject of trade rumors in the past, and it’s fair to wonder if that’ll persist this offseason. Changes will need to be made to this Eagles offense as it retools for 2026, and it may include a shakeup in the receiver room with an exploration of a Brown trade.

Patriots’ pass rush rivals Denver Broncos’ for best in the NFL 

Overreactions vs. reality: Overreaction

New England hit Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert 11 times and sacked him six times in their 16-3 win on Sunday night. How rare was that pass-rush performance? Out of 272 regular-season games in 2025, just 12 of them (4.4%), involved defenses hitting and sacking the opposing quarterback as much as the Patriots did to Herbert in the wild card round.

However, that doesn’t mean their pass rush is now on the level of the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Denver Broncos. Denver’s franchise-record 68 sacks were tied for the fifth-most in a season by any team, and it’s the Broncos’ second season in a row with 60-plus sacks as a team. The Patriots amassed just 35 sacks in the regular season, tied for the seventh-fewest in the league along with the Micah Parsons-less Dallas Cowboys among other teams. 

New England benefitted greatly from facing the worst offensive line in football in the Rashawn Slater-less and Joe Alt-less Chargers’ unit. The degree of difficulty for the Patriots’ pass rush will increase exponentially upon facing either the Houston Texans (35.2% quarterback pressure rate allowed, 12th-best in the NFL) or the Pittsburgh Steelers (25% quarterback pressure rate allowed, best in the NFL) in the divisional round. 

The Chargers are in danger of wasting Justin Herbert’s career

Overreactions vs. reality: Reality

Thanks to the Chargers’ battering supporting cast along the offensive line and at running back with Omarion Hampton (ankle) being able to play just two plays on Sunday, Los Angeles is starting to enter the danger zone of wasting Justin Herbert’s talents. 

Herbert was pressured on 42.8% of his dropbacks in the 2025 regular season, the highest rate in the NFL this season. Losing both starting offensive tackles in Slater (torn patellar tendon) and Alt (ankle) tanked his pass protection, but Herbert still prevailed to play like a top 10 QB this season in leading Los Angeles to 11 wins. There aren’t many quarterbacks who could have done the same in his offensive ecosystem. 

Herbert is now 0-3 in the postseason despite him throwing for the second-most passing yards in a player’s first six seasons in NFL history with 24,820. Only Hall of Famer Peyton Manning’s passing yards total of 24,885 in his first six seasons is higher than Herbert’s total. 

His 24,820 yards passing now also ranks as the second-most in a six-season span without a playoff win in NFL history trailing only Matthew Stafford’s 27,501 he threw from 2011 to 2016 with the Detroit Lions. Stafford eventually waved the white flag and demanded a trade off of the Lions, and he won a Super Bowl in his first season in a new environment. The Chargers are inching closer and closer to being Herbert’s Lions after another season was doomed by a lackluster supporting cast on the field and at offensive coordinator with Greg Roman calling the plays.