NFL Week 9 picks, score predictions: Colts destroy Steelers, Chiefs beat Bills in AFC thriller

Earlier than we begin issues off right here, I would like everybody to know that if all my picks are flawed this week, I blame Halloween. It’s simply one in every of my three favourite holidays: I eat an excessive amount of sweet, I purchase extra pumpkins than I want (I must cease shopping for pumpkins) and I watch approach too many horror films. 

In the case of that final half, the excellent news is that I’ve seen so many horror films that I am really going to suggest some to a couple NFL fan bases on the market. Listed here are my three suggestions for this week: 

• Noticed. I am recommending this for Bengals followers since they’d most likely relatively noticed off a physique half than watch their protection play one other down. 
• Scream. I am recommending this for Steelers followers since they’re just about screaming at their tv any time Pittsburgh’s protection is on the sector.
• The Ring. I am recommending this for Cowboys followers. This workforce hasn’t gained a hoop in 30 years, so watching “The Ring” is probably going the closest they’ll get to at least one anytime quickly. 

The Cowboys, Bengals and Steelers have three of the worst defenses within the NFL, however is that going to cease me from selecting them this week? Let’s get to the Week 9 picks and discover out. 

Really, earlier than we get to the Week 9 picks, here is a fast reminder you could try the weekly picks from each CBSSports.com NFL skilled by clicking right here. Additionally, as you most likely know by now — as a result of I level it out each week — I am in command of the NFL e-newsletter right here at CBSSports.com. If you wish to subscribe, all you need to do is click on right here and enter your electronic mail deal with. I will eat one piece of Halloween sweet each time somebody indicators up. I believe my dentist goes to be thrilled.

Talking of thrilling, let’s get to the picks.  

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NFL Week 9 picks

Atlanta at New England

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Final week, I picked the Broncos to beat the Cowboys and my complete cause for making the choose is as a result of Dallas at all times appears to overlook the best way to play soccer while you put it open air. Nicely, the Falcons are worse. In case you have ever seen a fish out of water, that is what the Falcons seem like once they’re compelled to play a sport open air.

Over the previous 12 months, the Falcons have performed 4 out of doors video games and here is how they’ve achieved in these video games: 

Nov. 17, 2024: Broncos 38-6 over Falcons 
Dec. 29, 2024: Commanders 30-24 over Falcons
Sept. 21, 2025: Panthers 30-0 over Falcons
Oct. 19, 2025: 49ers 20-10 over Falcons

I am undecided about you guys, however I am noticing a sample right here. Not solely are they 0-4, however they’ve misplaced these 4 video games by a mean of 19.5 factors per sport. When a fish is out of water, it simply flops round on the bottom, and that is mainly what the Falcons do once they’re compelled to play open air. 

The one factor the Falcons do have going for them this yr is that even when their offense flops, the protection may save the day. The Falcons have given up the fewest passing yards per sport within the NFL this yr (149.1) and the second-fewest complete yards per sport (275.6), however the issue is that I do not belief these numbers and I do not belief their protection anymore after watching them hand over 34 factors to the Dolphins in Week 8. I additionally do not belief the Falcons’ offensive teaching employees anymore after they gave Bijan Robinson simply 9 carries towards Miami. The Dolphins have been giving up the MOST RUSHING YARDS IN THE NFL heading into Week 8, and for some cause, the Falcons determined to not give Robinson the ball. 

Then again, I belief the Patriots: I belief their teaching employees, I belief their quarterback and I even belief their secondary, particularly after a sport the place they have been making interceptions like this. 

That could be a nice image, however please do not dangle it within the Louvre, as a result of it would get stolen. I’ve heard safety at that place is just a little lax. 

Earlier than the season began, I predicted that Mike Vrabel would win Coach of the 12 months and that the Patriots would make the playoffs and I am feeling particularly good about that prediction after watching how good Drake Maye has change into. The Patriots QB has thrown for not less than 200 yards with a passer ranking of not less than 100 in seven straight video games, changing into solely the fifth QB in NFL historical past to tug off that feat. 

Whenever you have a look at this record, please maintain the next issues in thoughts: Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to the AFC title sport in 2018, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 15-1 document in 2011, Tom Brady led the Patriots to a 16-0 season in 2007 and Peyton Manning led the Colts to a 12-4 document in 2004. 

In case your quarterback is enjoying in addition to Mahomes, Manning, Brady and Rodgers of their primes, then I am unable to choose your workforce to lose, particularly on this scenario: We’ve got a QB enjoying at a excessive stage going up towards a workforce that flops round like a fish out of water once they play open air. I believe I will take the workforce that is not being in comparison with the fish. 

PICK: Patriots 27-17 over Falcons | Patriots -5.5 | Odds by way of DraftKings, the place new customers wager $5, get $300 in Bonus Bets + 3 Months of NBA League Move. Click here to get started:

Indianapolis (7-1) at Pittsburgh (4-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

As we head into Week 9, right here is your weekly replace on how my Colts picks are going this yr: I am 8-0 straight up and 7-1 towards the unfold, and my complete life now revolves utterly across the Colts. I would even be Blue for Halloween. In associated information, does anybody know the place I can get a Blue costume on brief discover? 

And hey look, that video has a fish out of water, which is nearly becoming, as a result of the Colts can be going through the fish out of water/Falcons in Week 10. Anyway, the Colts have taken over my life and once they’re not enjoying, I’ve to fill my time with one thing so I do this by watching Indiana Jones films. And let me simply say, I am not the one one who has taken this Daniel Jones/Indiana Jones factor approach too far. There are Colts followers who at the moment are attending video games dressed up as INDIANA JONES. 

To be truthful, that is also an enormous Indiana Jones fan who unintentionally ended up at a Colts sport. Both approach, Daniel Jones touchdown in Indianapolis is the best factor that has ever occurred to the Colts and the workforce is milking it for all its price. 

So what is going on to occur on this sport? This week, the Colts can be going through their largest problem: Mom Nature. 

By way of the primary eight weeks of the season, the Colts have solely performed one out of doors sport and that got here in Week 3 towards the Titans on a day the place it was 84 levels and sunny. When the Colts get to Pittsburgh this weekend, it is doubtless going to be underneath 50 levels and it could possibly be wet. 

Will that type of climate decelerate the Colts? No, as a result of nothing can decelerate the Colts. This workforce is main the NFL in complete yards per sport (385.3) and factors per sport (33.8), and now, they get to face a Steelers protection that appears damaged. The Steelers have surrendered the MOST passing yards per sport within the NFL this yr (273.3) they usually’ll be going up towards Jones, who has the third-most passing yards within the league by way of eight weeks. In the event that they attempt to cease the move, then Jonathan Taylor will rush for 300 yards. 

The Steelers have given up 30 factors or extra in 4 of their seven video games and listed here are the 4 quarterbacks who they confronted in these video games: Justin Fields (Jets), Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Joe Flacco (Bengals), Jordan Love (Packers). 

Joe Flacco had solely been with the Bengals for 9 days when he confronted the Steelers and he nonetheless managed to steer the Bengals to 33 factors. If the Steelers could not cease Flacco, it appears extremely unlikely that they are going to have the ability to decelerate a Colts offense that has been unstoppable all season. 

The comeback campaign continues for Indiana Jones as he will get a win within the Temple of Tomlin. 

PICK: Colts 41-24 over Steelers | Colts -3 | Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver (6-2) at Houston (3-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — attempt at no cost)

If protection actually wins championships, then we should always all most likely wager all the pieces we personal on the winner of this sport to win the Tremendous Bowl. Heading into Week 9, the Broncos and Texans have two of the perfect defenses within the NFL. I do not normally make charts right here as a result of I am too lazy, however I believe a chart is perhaps one of the simplest ways to point out simply how good these defenses are: 

So there you’ve got it: The Texans rank within the high 5 in 4 of the largest defensive classes and the Broncos are proper behind them. 

One stat that is not on the chart that may definitely assist the Broncos on Sunday is sacks. The Broncos have racked up an NFL-high 36 sacks this yr, which is an absurdly excessive quantity when you think about that no different workforce even has 28 sacks. 

If you cannot shield your quarterback, then you’ve got nearly no likelihood to beat the Broncos. Final yr, CJ Stroud was sacked 52 occasions, which was the second-highest complete within the NFL. This yr, he is solely been sacked 15 occasions by way of seven video games, which is tied for the 14th most within the NFL. That is not a foul quantity, however there have been three totally different video games this yr the place Stroud was sacked not less than thrice and the Texans went 0-3 in these video games. Then again, the Texans are 3-1 when Stroud is sacked two occasions or much less. If Denver can get stress on Stroud, it may be an extended day for the Texans.

For the Broncos offense, they confronted the worst protection within the NFL final week (Cowboys), and now, they need to face the perfect protection within the NFL in Week 9. The distinction there may be the distinction between getting hit over the top with a bit of styrofoam versus getting over the top with a brick (The Cowboys should not the brick on this state of affairs). 

The Texans’ three wins have come towards Cam Ward (Titans), Cooper Rush (Ravens) and Mac Jones (49ers). I do not assume we will be including Bo Nix to that record. 

PICK: Broncos 23-20 over Texans | Broncos +1.5 | Odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook

Chicago (4-3) at Cincinnati (3-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET  (CBS, Paramount+)

I am undecided if it is a good factor or a foul factor, however for the second straight week, the Bears can be going through one of many worst defenses within the NFL. Often, I might say this can be a good factor, however based mostly on what occurred to them in Week 8 towards the Ravens, this is perhaps a foul factor. 

Going into Week 8, the Ravens have been giving up extra factors per sport (32.3) than ANY different workforce within the NFL and the Bears could not rating on them. A part of the rationale the Bears could not rating is as a result of Caleb Williams did not play nice, which has now been a problem for a few month. Over his previous 4 video games, Williams has extra interceptions (3) than landing passes (2) and he is averaging simply 230.3 passing yards per sport in that span. After watching Williams throw for 298 yards and 4 touchdowns in a Week 3 win over the Cowboys, I used to be satisfied that he had already mastered Ben Johnson’s offense and that the Bears have been going to be unbeatable this yr. However as a substitute, I am now apprehensive that he may need peaked in Week 3. I do know that it is prefer to peak early. I peaked in fourth grade. It has been downhill ever since. 

Williams can have an opportunity to show issues round this week: He will get to face a Bengals protection that has given up essentially the most factors per sport, essentially the most dashing yards per sport and the third-most passing yards per sport this yr. If the Bears cannot transfer the ball on this protection, they may wish to blow their offense up and begin over from scratch. 

The Bengals have given up not less than 27 factors in 4 straight video games, which makes me really feel like this sport goes to show right into a shootout. In Week 8, the Bears received to face a workforce that had a foul protection and an offense led by a QB who spent most of August on the Browns’ roster (Tyler Huntley). In Week 9, the Bears as soon as once more get to face a workforce that has a foul protection whereas being led on offense by a QB who spent August on the Browns’ roster (Joe Flacco). 

Issues did not work out so nicely for the Bears final week and I am not feeling any higher about them this week. The Bears secondary is banged up and I believe Flacco goes to have the ability to benefit from that. 

PICK: Bengals 34-31 over Bears | Bengals +2.5 | Odds by way of BetMGM

Kansas Metropolis (5-3) at Buffalo (5-2)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET  (CBS, Paramount+)

I am not in command of your social calendar, however In case you have plans at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, I would go forward and cancel them. If you do not have plans, then make some, simply so you possibly can cancel them, as a result of you aren’t going to wish to miss this sport. Should you reside in or round Buffalo, then be sure that to move to stadium on Sunday as a result of CBS goes to be there. That is proper, this sport is so large that we’re sending our pregame present to Buffalo. 

This may mark the sixth straight yr that the Payments and Chiefs have met within the common season and I am beginning to assume they may have damaged the NFL’s scheduling formulation. Somebody wants to speak to Roger Goodell about that. 

For the previous 5 seasons, these two groups have earned both the primary, second or third-seed within the AFC playoffs, however I do not assume that is going to occur this yr. This sport normally looks like it may have a big impact on the race for the No. 1 total seed within the AFC, however this yr, it may have a special type of influence, as a result of I may see the dropping workforce getting caught enjoying as a wild-card workforce within the playoffs. The Chiefs are staring up on the Broncos within the AFC West standings and the Payments are behind the Patriots within the AFC East, so neither workforce can actually afford a loss right here. 

In a must-win scenario, I might normally take the Chiefs, however I hate selecting towards the Payments at residence. Though the Payments can not seem to beat the Chiefs within the playoffs, that hasn’t been the case within the common season. The Payments have gained FOUR straight common season video games towards Kansas Metropolis, however I believe that streak goes to finish this yr. 

Josh Allen is so good that he can normally masks any issues that the Payments have, however not this yr. On offense, their receivers cannot get open, and on protection, they can not cease the run (They’ve given up the second-most dashing yards per sport within the NFL this yr). That second difficulty might be the larger one as a result of Andy Reid is among the smartest offensive coaches within the NFL and if he sees you could’t cease the run, then he’ll run the ball. And when you determined to go all-in on stopping the run, then Patrick Mahomes goes to throw for 700 yards. And he may do this anyway, as a result of the Payments can be lacking one in every of their high pass-rushers in Ed Oliver, who’s tied for the workforce lead in sacks (Oliver suffered a biceps harm in Week 8 and can miss a number of video games).

Heading into Week 9, it looks like Mahomes is enjoying at the next stage than Allen. The Payments QB has one sport this yr the place he is thrown three landing passes, Mahomes has hit that quantity 4 occasions previously 5 weeks. With Rashee Rice again from suspension, the Chiefs’ offense is at full energy. Mainly, the Dying Star is now totally operational and the Payments are Alderaan. 

PICK: Chiefs 34-27 over Payments | Chiefs -1.5 | Odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook, the place new customers get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

NFL Week 9 picks: All the remainder

Ravens 34-20 over Dolphins
Lions 31-16 over Vikings
Packers 27-20 over Panthers
Chargers 24-17 over Titans
49ers 20-17 over Giants
Jaguars 24-16 over Raiders
Rams 34-17 over Saints
Seahawks 27-23 over Commanders
Cowboys 38-27 over Cardinals

Final Week 

Finest choose: Final week, I predicted that the Chargers would rating not less than 30 factors in a win over the Vikings and guess what occurred? The Chargers scored not less than 30 factors in a win over the Vikings. Now did I do know that Carson Wentz was going to play the whole sport with a torn labrum and had been enjoying with a torn labrum for almost three weeks? I didn’t know that, however now I do. 

That sounds painful. But additionally, I really feel like this tells me all the pieces I must find out about J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings’ had two choices final week: They may begin a QB with a torn labrum and a fractured socket or begin a QB who was largely recovered from a sprained ankle. They selected possibility A. They selected somebody with a TORN LABRUM AND A FRACTURED SOCKET to play over McCarthy. I now haven’t any religion in him. They’ll lose by 4 touchdowns this week, aren’t they? 

Worst choose: Final week, I used to be so satisfied that Aaron Rodgers would get revenge on the Packers that I grew to become blinded by widespread sense. I picked a 41-year-old quarterback with the worst protection within the NFL to beat the most effective groups within the league. There was no approach that was taking place. And so as to add insult to harm, I picked the Steelers though I knew they have been sporting a uniform from 1933 that was universally hated by everybody on the web, which is mildly shocking, as a result of nobody on the web ever agrees on something.

You understand what? Now that I am wanting on the uniform once more, I believe I type of prefer it. Oh my God, I solely picked the Steelers as a result of I appreciated their uniform, did not I? You understand what, I deserved to get the choose flawed.   

Lastly, when you guys have ever questioned which groups I am really good at selecting, I will begin sharing that data with you now that we have got eight full weeks of data. Here is a fast have a look at my finest groups in the case of picks this yr. 

Groups I am 8-0 selecting this yr (Straight up): Colts
Groups I am 7-1 selecting this yr (Straight up): Titans, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals (6-1), Raiders (6-1)

Longest successful streak: Colts (Eight straight video games picked appropriately)
Longest dropping streak: 49ers (5 straight video games picked incorrectly)

Picks Document

Straight up in Week 8: 8-5
SU total: 79-41-1

Towards the unfold in Week 8: 4-9
ATS total: 56-65

You will discover John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he is not doing a type of issues, he is most likely watching ‘Noticed’ together with his household since they’re all Bengals followers.