Now we have lastly reached my least favourite week of the 12 months and it has nothing to do with the NFL.
The primary week after turning the clock again is at all times a nightmare and that is largely as a result of I’ve a toddler who’s now waking up at 5:30 a.m. If I get all my picks improper this week, that is why. The federal government must ban time adjustments and/or clocks.
I will have to speak to my toddler about clock administration, and to be sincere, somebody most likely additionally must have that dialog with the Cowboys as a result of their clock administration was fairly ugly close to the tip of the sport towards the Eagles.
Alright, I am performed speaking about clocks, let’s get to the picks.
Truly, earlier than we get to the Week 10 picks, here is a fast reminder which you can try the weekly picks from each CBSSports.com NFL skilled by clicking right here. Additionally, I am accountable for the NFL e-newsletter right here at CBSSports.com and in order for you me invading your inbox 5 days per week, then you must undoubtedly join. If you wish to subscribe, all you need to do is click on right here and enter your e mail tackle. In the event you try this, it can immediately make us finest associates, and simply so you already know, I’ve already let all my present finest associates know that they could be changed this week.
OK, I will cease stalling, let’s get to the picks.
NFL Week 10 picks
Carolina (1-7) at Chicago (2-7)
8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
On paper, that is simply the worst recreation of Week 10 and presumably the worst recreation ever. I am not even certain who the viewers is meant to be right here: Panthers followers do not wish to watch the Panthers play anymore, Bears followers do not wish to watch the Bears play, and positively, nobody needs to look at them play one another.
Truly, there may be one motive to look at and that is largely as a result of the Bears are in first win-win state of affairs in NFL historical past: They win in the event that they win and so they even win in the event that they lose and that is all due to the NFL Draft.
The Bears can be getting Carolina’s first-round choose within the 2024 NFL Draft, which implies if the Panthers lose on Thursday, then Chicago will take one step nearer towards presumably getting the primary general choose. Alternatively, if the Panthers win, that is not the worst factor, both, as a result of the Bears even have their very own first-round choose in 2024 and their draft positioning will enhance in the event that they lose this recreation.
The Bears may also help their draft place by profitable and so they may also help their draft place by shedding.
So which one goes to occur?
After watching Bryce Younger play this 12 months, I am undecided I can choose the Panthers to win one other recreation this season. Not solely has he struggled, however he is been significantly unhealthy on the street. In three street video games, the Panthers have gone 0-3 and Younger has thrown 4 interceptions whereas averaging simply 203.3 passing yards per recreation.
Additionally, I really feel like D.J. Moore goes to be out for revenge. The previous Panthers receiver was traded to the Bears within the deal that gave Carolina the No. 1 general choose, which allowed them to draft Younger. Moore has already had three video games this 12 months the place he went over 100 yards and I will not be stunned if he provides one other one to the tally on Thursday.
I am undecided who the Bears’ quarterback goes to be simply but — Tyson Bagent has been beginning, however Justin Fields just lately returned to apply after lacking three video games on account of a thumb damage — however I am beginning to suppose it won’t matter. The Panthers protection cannot cease the run — they’ve surrendered the fifth most dashing yards per recreation this 12 months — and the Bears are working over everybody. They’re averaging 135.3 yards per recreation on the bottom, which is the fourth-best quantity within the NFL heading into Week 10. That looks as if a recipe for catastrophe for the Panthers.
The choose: Bears 20-13 over Panthers
In order for you a extra analytical strategy to your NFL picks, then I extremely counsel that you just try the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on hearth this 12 months. Test it out if you wish to know which facet to wager for each recreation in Week 9.
Indianapolis (4-5) vs. New England (2-7) in Germany
9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Community)
I by no means thought I would kind these phrases, however I feel Invoice Belichick would possibly really be on the new seat. His teaching tree is on hearth, his crew cannot win video games and “The Patriot Means” is fading into oblivion. His choice to maneuver on from Tom Brady has confirmed to be one of many worst personnel selections in NFL historical past, the crew cannot draft and the one factor that has at all times been good beneath Belichick — his protection — is even failing him.
In Week 9, they misplaced to a crew that wasn’t even attempting to win. The Commanders waved the white flag on the season on the commerce deadline after they determined to commerce away two of their defensive stars, however they nonetheless managed to beat the Patriots.
Issues are so unhealthy in New England that Patriots followers are satisfied that Robert Kraft and his son could be able to make a transfer and I am undecided I disagree, as a result of they undoubtedly regarded disgusted throughout the second half of the crew’s loss to the Commanders.
I am undecided what they mentioned there, however here is what they should inform Belichick, “You both retire a hero otherwise you coach lengthy sufficient to see your self get fired.”
In the event you’re questioning whether or not I took a quote from Harvey Dent and modified in order that it match Belichick’s state of affairs, the reply is sure.
The excellent news for Belichick is that I do not suppose he’ll have to fret about getting fired this week. He has two massive issues working in his favor heading into this recreation. For one, it is being performed in Germany and I feel that truly provides the Patriots a bonus. Belichick has by no means misplaced in Europe (He is 3-0) and I am guessing that is as a result of his inflexible scheduling really is useful when the Patriots play abroad.
The opposite benefit for Belichick is that the Colts may have Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Though Minshew has began 41 video games in his profession, he is by no means confronted Belichick. Nobody is healthier than Belichick at complicated opposing quarterbacks and it is by no means simple to face him for the primary time. This might be like asking somebody who’s performed three video games of chess of their life to beat Garry Kasparov (I promised the chess neighborhood I might make one chess reference this 12 months, so there you go guys).
The Colts are the crew that began the Deflategate controversy, so it could be nearly becoming in the event that they had been the crew to finish Belichick’s reign in New England, however I do not suppose his reign goes to finish. A minimum of not this week.
The choose: Patriots 20-17 over Colts
San Francisco (5-3) at Jacksonville (6-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
I am not saying the NFL needs to be put me accountable for flexing video games, however I am beginning to suppose the NFL ought to put me accountable for flexing video games. For some motive, the league determined to maintain Jets-Raiders on Sunday evening this week after they may have had this recreation as a substitute.
I might checklist all of the the explanation why this recreation is healthier, however that might take me 9 hours to jot down and it could take you seven hours to learn and we do not have time for that. Let’s simply all agree that this recreation would have been the most suitable choice for “Sunday Night time Soccer.”
On one hand, we have now the most well liked crew within the NFL and that is the Jaguars, who’re at present on a five-game profitable streak, which is the longest streak within the league proper now. Alternatively, we have now the 49ers, who have not received a recreation since Week 5 (Reminder: It is Week 10).
The 49ers’ largest concern throughout their three-game shedding streak has been accidents. Each time it appears like issues cannot presumably get any worse, they by some means worsen. Left deal with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel each missed a number of video games throughout the shedding streak. Additionally, Brock Purdy suffered a concussion in Week 7 and he hasn’t been the identical quarterback since then.
The Jaguars and 49ers are each coming off a bye, however San Francisco undoubtedly wanted the off week extra. Williams and Samuel will each seemingly be taking part in on Sunday and Purdy needs to be again to 100%. With these three on the sector, that would current plenty of issues for a Jaguars protection that hasn’t been capable of cease the cross this 12 months. The Jags are surrendering 263.5 passing yards per recreation this season, which ranks thirtieth within the NFL.
One other factor working within the 49ers favor is that they simply ADDED CHASE YOUNG. The 49ers pass-rush had been struggling some this 12 months, but it surely ought to undoubtedly get a lift this week with Younger on the sector. To recap: The 49ers offense ought to thrive towards the Jags’ secondary and the 49ers protection might be going to eat Trevor Lawrence alive.
The Jaguars haven’t overwhelmed the 49ers in 18 years and I do not suppose that drought ends this 12 months.
The choose: 49ers 30-23 over Jaguars
Houston (4-4) at Cincinnati (5-3)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
After beating the Payments on Sunday evening, the Bengals will now be internet hosting the Texans, which can be adopted by a Thursday evening showdown with the Ravens in Week 11. I do not wish to say taking part in Houston is a entice recreation, but when your crew goes to go to sleep on the wheel throughout a type of three video games, it is undoubtedly going to be the one towards the Texans.
That being mentioned, I feel C.J. Stroud may need ruined any probability the Texans had of unusual the Bengals this week. In Houston’s Week 9 win over Tampa Bay, the Texans rookie quarterback re-wrote the NFL document e book. Not solely did he set the rookie document for probably the most passing yards in a single-game with 470, however he additionally set the document for the best QB score by a rookie in a single-game (147.8). After turning again the clock an hour this week, I am guessing the Panthers would love if we may flip the clock all the way in which again to the draft so they may take Stroud as a substitute of Bryce Younger.
I do not know the way snug the NFL would really feel about handing out the rookie of the 12 months award in Week 10, however they may as effectively and simply go forward and provides it to Stroud now.
The one downside for the Texans on this recreation is that if there’s been one QB who’s been hotter than Stroud over the previous few weeks, it is Joe Burrow.
The Bengals QB has arguably been the very best quarterback within the NFL over the previous 5 weeks. Not solely does he have the best passer score within the league since Week 5, however he is additionally thrown 10 landing passes with a 75% completion proportion over his previous 4 video games.
Is that even spectacular? The reply is sure. Just one different participant has ever performed that and that was Peyton Manning who did it throughout his MVP season in 2013. If the Texans cannot get any strain on Burrow, then this could possibly be a protracted day for a Houston crew that is struggled to sack the quarterback. The Texans solely have 17 sacks on the season and 6 of these got here in a single recreation towards Bryce Younger (Their 17 sacks are the fourth-worst quantity within the NFL).
If the Texans sack Burrow six instances, they may win, however I do not suppose that is going to occur.
The choose: Bengals 27-20 over Texans
Cleveland (5-3) at Baltimore (7-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
In the event you’ve regarded the NFL standings at any level over the previous 24 hours, you might have seen that the AFC North is formally the very best division in soccer. And to be sincere, saying this division is the “finest” could be an understatement. Heading into Week 10, all 4 groups are not less than two video games above .500, which marks the primary time that is ever occurred this late within the season for the reason that divisions had been realigned in 2002.
Additionally, the AFC North is on observe to ship ALL FOUR TEAMS TO THE PLAYOFFS.
No four-team division has ever despatched all 4 of its groups to the playoffs.
Oh, and did I point out that the 4 groups within the AFC North are a mixed 17-6 towards non-divisional opponents? The one motive I am pointing all of this out is as a result of my plan this week was to select each AFC North crew to win, however I can not try this due to this recreation.
These two groups performed again in Week 4 with the Ravens profitable 28-3, however I will neglect that recreation occurred as a result of the Browns needed to play with a rookie QB who was making his first profession begin. They will have Deshaun Watson this week and it doesn’t matter what you consider Watson, he is undoubtedly a step up from a rookie QB who’s by no means began a recreation earlier than.
The Browns can even be bringing the NFL’s finest protection to this recreation. By way of 9 weeks, the Browns have surrendered simply 234.8 yards per recreation, which ranks first within the NFL.
Truly, now that I am excited about it, you can most likely make the argument that the Browns haven’t got the very best protection on this recreation and that the RAVENS do. Baltimore’s protection has given up the fewest factors within the NFL this 12 months … You realize what? Overlook the defenses. They cancel one another out. That is all going to return right down to who performs higher between Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson and I will take Jackson in that debate.
The Ravens QB is taking part in at an MVP degree and thru 9 weeks, he leads the NFL in completion proportion (71.5%) AND QB dashing yards, which is one thing that has solely been completed by one different QB in NFL historical past (Steve Younger in 1994). Steve Younger received the MVP and the Super Bowl in 1994 and I am beginning to really feel like Lamar would possibly do the identical.
The Ravens are likely to battle in divisional video games — they’re simply 6-9 for the reason that begin of the 2021 season — however I feel they pull this one out on Sunday.
The choose: Ravens 19-16 over Browns
NFL Week 10 picks: All the remainder
Saints 24-17 over Vikings
Steelers 24-16 over Packers
Titans 19-16 over Buccaneers
Falcons 20-16 over Cardinals
Lions 27-23 over Chargers
Cowboys 27-13 over Giants
Seahawks 31-20 over Commanders
Raiders 23-20 over Jets
Payments 23-16 over Broncos
BYES: Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, Eagles
Final Week
Finest choose: It took 9 weeks, but it surely lastly occurred: I acquired a Titans choose proper! I used to be beginning to suppose that I used to be going to go the whole season with out hitting a single Titans’ choose however the streak lastly ended. I can lastly look my household within the face once more. Alternatively, I wish to apologize to everybody who picked the alternative of what I picked since you assumed I would be improper. That was a superb technique and I am sorry it did not work.
Thanks for utilizing the previous double reverse jinx, guys. You took one for the crew and I recognize it.
Worst choose: If I’ve discovered one factor about making NFL picks over the previous 10 years, it is that you must by no means choose the Cowboys to win in an enormous recreation, as a result of they at all times choke. Properly, guess what? I picked the Cowboys to win an enormous recreation and within the least stunning information in human historical past, they choked. They’d 103 totally different probabilities to beat the Eagles on Sunday and so they choked away each single considered one of them. It was nearly spectacular how a lot choking there was.
The Cowboys had a primary down at Philadelphia’s SIX-YARD LINE with 27 seconds left and I assumed for certain they had been going to attain, however as a substitute, they by some means managed to go BACKWARDS 21 yards in a span of two performs. The Cowboys are the Dolphins of the NFC: They can not beat a great crew and I can’t be selecting them to beat any good groups till I really see them beat a great crew.
Lastly, for those who guys have ever questioned which groups I am really good at selecting, here is a fast take a look at my finest and worst groups in terms of picks this 12 months.
Groups I am 8-1 selecting this 12 months (Straight up): Cardinals, Giants, Panthers (7-1), Packers (7-1), Jets (7-1)
Longest profitable streak: Cardinals (Six straight wins)
Groups I am 1-7 selecting this 12 months (Straight up): Titans (1-7), Texans (1-7).
Longest shedding streak: Texans (Seven straight losses)
Each different crew is someplace within the center.
Picks Document
Straight up in Week 9: 10-4
SU general: 83-54 (2-14 selecting the Titans and Texans, 81-40 selecting everybody else)
In opposition to the unfold in Week 9: 9-5
ATS general: 66-66-4
You’ll find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he is not doing a type of issues, he is probaby celebrating his Week 9 Titans’ choose with a family-size bag of Funyons.
