I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the 2026 NFL schedule has been released. From a Wednesday kickoff to a record nine international games to a stacked NFL Thanksgiving schedule and NFL Christmas schedule, there’s plenty to talk about. The Week 1 schedule in particular has a lot of intrigue — we ranked all the Week 1 games from No. 1 to 16, and I personally think No. 13 is far more compelling than you’d expect from its low ranking — and one thing worth tracking is where the Week 1 lines go from their post-release opening up until the Week 1 kickoff in September.
At DraftKings, just four of the 16 matchups have spreads above 3.5, which suggests we could be in for a lot of close action on the opening weekend of the season. For some games, the best time to bet is right now before a summer of analysis and market opinions on all 32 teams crystallize. For others, we might get more line value waiting. Let’s get into the Week 1 schedule
What to bet now
The Rams are going to be No. 1 in consensus power ratings heading into the season even without doing much in the draft, and I can’t see the 49ers being within three points of them on a neutral field. The 49ers’ acquisitions at receiver are countered by the Rams’ upgrades at cornerback, and there’s no way George Kittle will be available for this game after tearing his Achilles in the playoffs. In a game where the 49ers offense actually has success, I still expect the Rams to win by a field goal, and I expect the market will put the line up to 3 before long.
The Bills are breaking in a new coach and a new defensive scheme, and it should take some time for that unit to come together. The Texans’ defense largely had its way with Josh Allen and Co. last year, with a 23-19 Houston win boosted by a Bills kickoff return TD. The Bills were favored by six in Houston that day with Davis Mills at quarterback for the Texans, but it should be the Texans favored in this one. I’d play the Texans money line up to -115.
The Jaguars are a flat 7-point favorite at DraftKings, a number I’m rushing to grab and will double down on if we can get it even lower. Jacksonville was legit one of the best teams in the AFC last year, finishing top eight in scoring offense and defense, and their dangerous passing attack will make it tough for the Browns’ secondary. On the Cleveland side, we might see Deshaun Watson shaking off the rust in this matchup, and whoever is at quarterback will have to direct traffic with two rookie receivers integrating into the offense. I love fading the Browns and their defense away from home in a mismatch like this.
Over on the SportsLine Discord, I made Titans -1.5 one of my two straight plays along with Rams -2.5 when FanDuel started posting games on their site Thursday. That’s now up to -2.5, with 3 available in other places. I don’t see these two teams as the same level of bad, and I have more faith in the Tennessee on both sides of the ball in this game.
The Chargers look dangerous on offense if the offensive line can stay healthy for once, while the Cardinals’ defense operated like Swiss cheese for much of last year. Jacoby Brissett was still able to put up points in some matchups and cover big numbers, but I expect the instillation of the new offense will take a little more time for whomever is starting at quarterback. I’d play the Chargers at single digits only, but I’m not sure that will be available for long.
Only one Week 1 game (Bucs-Bengals) has a bigger total than Ravens-Colts, which is strange. The Colts probably won’t have Daniel Jones back from his December Achilles tear by this point, and if they do, we can’t expect him to be anything like the offensive force we saw in the first half of last season. Lamar Jackson and Co. will be adjusting to a new coaching staff here as well, and I would expect both these teams to be interested in leaning on their rushing attacks in the season debut and limiting the number of possessions in this game.
What to bet later
The Seahawks are available at -3.5 at DraftKings, a number that’s worth taking a little piece. I’m hoping that if A.J. Brown gets traded to the Patriots, there will be enough steam to get the line down to 3, where I’ll be all-in on Seattle. The Super Bowl showed these teams are worlds apart, and I don’t know how the Patriots slow down that pass rush any better in this matchup. I like the Under in this game, but love the Seahawks if we can get 3.
Conversely, I’m hoping the line for the Eagles comes down if Brown is traded. It’s Eagles -4.5 at -105 on FanDuel, which is begging to move down to 4 at the least. If we can get it across 4, I’ll back a strong Eagles defense and rushing attack with a healthy offensive line.
I’m largely going to be looking at negative Panthers plays this year, but this could be a good spot for them at home in Week 1 if we can get the full three points. The Bears had a lot of close wins with seven game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime, including the playoff win over the Packers. If the market is willing to push them up to 3 from the current line of -2.5, I’ll consider them worth fading.
Backing the Falcons against the Steelers is largely a play on the Steelers’ quarterback situation, as we could very well see a Will Howard or Mason Rudolph under center depending on the whims of Aaron Rodgers. I expect Kevin Stefanski will have the Falcons’ offense ready to roll in Week 1, and I expect a healthy Tua Tagovailoa to have a strong start to the season.
The Giants should be much improved with the upgrade at head coach, and they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball to make the game against the Cowboys interesting. I think Dallas’ defense will be better in time, but if they end up laying three on the road in a divisional matchup to start the year, I’ll be fading them.
Our final play is more of a fade on the market apparently assuming Patrick Mahomes is good to go for Week 1. I don’t know how you can justify making the Chiefs favorites otherwise, and as positive news develops, I’m hoping the market will move the number from 2.5 to 3, where I’ll grab the Broncos. If Mahomes is racing against an aggressive timetable, he runs the risk of a setback as well, so we should be quick to play 3 if it becomes available.
