One yr in the past, NFL executives emerged from the scouting mix pondering the Chicago Bears have been open to buying and selling the primary choose within the draft. They have been proper. This yr, sentiment from NFL entrance places of work holds that the Bears will use the highest choose, acquired from the Carolina Panthers one yr in the past subsequent week, on USC quarterback Caleb Williams.
Checking in with decision-makers this time of yr offers a snapshot of their expectations popping out of the mix. What they assume would possibly occur in early March evolves because the draft nears, partly as a result of coaches turn into extra concerned within the course of. However I discover worth in taking a snapshot to ascertain a baseline.
I’ve put collectively a tough high 10 primarily based on conversations with six executives throughout and after the mix. Clear themes emerged for quarterbacks, offensive linemen and receivers, with some intrigue surrounding a QB prospect whom groups haven’t assessed as absolutely.
Final yr, execs appropriately projected seven of the highest 10 gamers chosen. Bijan Robinson, Jalen Carter and Darnell Wright have been the three gamers touchdown within the precise high 10 with out showing within the March 2023 projection.
Execs narrowly missed on offensive lineman Peter Skoronski (Tennessee picked him eleventh). They missed on cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who went seventeenth to New England. And so they whiffed on quarterback Will Levis, who was not chosen till the thirty third slot — a reminder that when QBs fall, they’ll plummet, as a result of solely a subset of groups will take into account one early in a given yr.
This yr, the overall theme was for quarterbacks to go first, then offensive linemen, then huge receivers, with some overlap between these two ultimate positions. Solely a few defensive gamers made the projected high 10.
We aren’t projecting potential trades under as a result of there are too many potentialities. Discovering logical houses for the highest-ranked gamers primarily based on the order because it stands in the present day captures the overall really feel in the meanwhile.
4 gamers appeared within the high 10 on all six ballots: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Joe Alt.
5 gamers appeared on 5 of six ballots: Dallas Turner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Olu Fashanu and Malik Nabers.
JC Latham appeared on 4 ballots. Jared Verse appeared on three. Brock Bowers appeared on two. Chop Robinson and Byron Murphy II every appeared on one.
The highest 10 picks under have been shaped from a consensus of the six ballots. Nabers and Latham weren’t chosen within the high 10 as a result of there was no consensus on the place both would land, however they’d be a part of any consensus high 10 general.
Most additionally thought J.J. McCarthy can be chosen among the many high 10, in all probability to a workforce that traded up, such because the Denver Broncos. However not one of the six execs penciled him in for one of many groups already selecting within the high 10, a minimum of not but.
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1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Vote distribution: Williams 6
All six execs had the Bears deciding on Williams and buying and selling incumbent starter Justin Fields. All endorsed Chicago heading down this path.
“I’d be evaluating the opposite quarterbacks like loopy proper now and saying, ‘What if I moved down to 2 or three and received a historic return?’” one of many execs mentioned. “Would I nonetheless be getting a franchise quarterback?”
The strongest concern voiced concerning Williams was his tendency to carry onto the ball longer than is good for a timing-based offense. In a worst-case state of affairs, that would result in extra third-and-long conditions, robbing an offense of consistency. However the feeling amongst execs was that Chicago mustn’t hesitate in making Williams the primary choice.
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2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Vote distribution: Daniels 5, Maye 1
5 of six execs had Daniels heading to Washington on this slot. One of many 5 initially had Maye, then modified to Daniels a couple of days later.
“I believe folks wrestle with Maye’s mechanics,” this exec mentioned.
The one holdout for Maye on this slot mentioned he heard Commanders basic supervisor Adam Peters was “actually into” Maye. The match may very well be interesting. Maye and incumbent Commanders starter Sam Howell have been teammates at North Carolina. Howell might open the 2024 season because the starter if the Commanders wished to provide Maye time to assimilate.
One other exec left open the likelihood that Michigan’s McCarthy might compete with Daniels and Maye for this slot.
“If he throws effectively,” this exec mentioned of McCarthy, “he’s competing for the No. 2 spot. I don’t see him overtaking them, although.”
The Athletic’s Randy Mueller predicted months in the past that McCarthy might rise into the highest 5 as groups and particularly coaches discovered extra about him, earlier than it was recognized whether or not McCarthy would enter the draft. Mueller, a three-time GM and one-time NFL Govt of the 12 months, additionally thinks analysts are overrating Maye primarily based on prototypical measurement, and that some groups won’t have Maye rated as extremely.
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“I believe that complete quarterback factor between McCarthy and Maye is but to play out,” a former GM mentioned. “The opposite two I believe are extra set.”
For now, all six execs projected Maye being chosen second or third.
“Might you say McCarthy might go within the high 5? Sure,” the previous GM mentioned, “as a result of all people had him on the again burner this fall. After which Michigan was not centered across the quarterback like Oregon or Washington was, so he was not going to place up monster numbers. However then while you begin trying on the expertise and the make-up, he appears fairly good to folks.”
Vote distribution: Maye 5, Daniels 1
Each exec had the Patriots deciding on a quarterback within the first spherical. Maye was the selection extra by default than as a result of anybody thought New England was significantly excessive on him.
“I believe they’d in all probability slightly have Jayden Daniels, however I’ll put Maye in there,” one exec mentioned.
One GM whose workforce already has a franchise quarterback thought McCarthy can be “an enormous attain” on this spot, however he conceded New England might make a daring choice with Eliot Wolf working the draft room.
“I believe they go quarterback,” this GM mentioned. “Do they take a shot at J.J.? Eliot gained’t be afraid to if he believes within the participant. Simply take a look at what his dad has accomplished.”
Ron Wolf famously acquired Brett Favre from the Atlanta Falcons three a long time in the past.
“Ron Wolf’s son goes to go for the most important, quickest, most gifted athlete typically,” a distinct exec mentioned.
Vote distribution: Joe Alt 2, Dallas Turner 2, Marvin Harrison Jr. 2
There was zero consensus on Arizona on this slot. I gave Turner to the Cardinals as a result of their protection badly wants reinforcements.
“Turner is squarely within the high 10 now,” one exec mentioned, citing the Alabama product’s 4.46 within the 40-yard sprint.
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We might have despatched Harrison or Alt to the Cardinals simply the identical.
“I believe they should go cross rush in the event that they keep there,” one of many execs mentioned. “It may very well be Dallas Turner. Verse could be a safer choose. I’d assume they are going to be trying to transfer down. There’s sufficient rush, even a Chop Robinson, to get him decrease. Seven (Titans) and 6 (Giants) might commerce up for a sort out.”
Buying and selling down from this spot makes good sense, maybe no matter how the highest three picks play out.
“I’d count on them to commerce the choose,” one of many execs mentioned. “Have a look at how they moved again final yr, after which the truth that that is going to be a horny spot as a result of it permits somebody to come back up from a distance to get the participant they need.”
This exec was picturing one of many quarterback-needy groups vaulting into this spot for McCarthy or Maye. The Cardinals have already dedicated to Kyler Murray as their quarterback. Transferring again to, say, the twelfth slot in a commerce with Denver might nonetheless ship the eighth-best non-quarterback within the draft for a workforce already set on the place.
“That may be a good distance possibly for Arizona to return, load up on picks, together with a primary subsequent yr, and there are nonetheless gamers there which are going to have equal alternative to have a big influence,” the exec mentioned. “They might get the No. 1 nook, the No. 2 edge man, nonetheless sort out, nonetheless receiver.”
Arizona has been a well-liked vacation spot for Harrison in mock drafts. Whereas 4 of the six execs projected Harrison to be the primary receiver chosen, Nabers and Odunze additionally received votes, and Harrison wasn’t essentially seen as the very best by a large margin.
“I believe they’ll take Marvin Harrison as a result of I believe he’s essentially the most gifted, strong, all-the-way-around man,” one other exec mentioned. “Let me put it to you this manner: I see him being the very best accessible participant at the moment. In case you don’t take a look at him as higher than Odunze or Nabers, then yeah, possibly you go along with Alt or Dallas Turner. However they gotta hold giving their quarterback some gamers, too, and I believe Marvin Harrison goes to verify each field, and is extra gifted.”
Dallas Turner turned heads in Indianapolis with excellent testing numbers. (Stacy Revere / Getty Photographs)
Vote distribution: Alt 2, Fashanu 2, Turner 1, Nabers 1
The primary 4 execs polled despatched an offensive lineman to the Chargers, figuring the choose would make sense symbolically for the workforce’s old-school coach, Jim Harbaugh. However there was some robust pushback towards this concept as effectively, which we’ll get to in a second.
“Joe Alt could be the most secure and most full of the tackles,” one exec mentioned. “They’ve a left sort out. They might play him at proper sort out. You will wish to give the quarterback a run recreation, after which you will wish to shield him for the primary time in his profession.”
Stable pondering, however is it strong worth?
“That’s one factor I simply don’t get,” one other exec mentioned. “Taking a man to play proper sort out, I simply don’t perceive that. Alt is clear, and I like Alt, however with cross rushers, there’s a large distinction within the worth of the place to me. We are able to discover a proper sort out.”
This exec penciled in Turner for the Chargers. One other leaned towards the offensive line initially however thought Nabers would make the higher influence.
“To get Herbert a man like Nabers would give them some L.A. fireworks,” he mentioned.
6. New York Giants: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Vote distribution: Harrison 2, Nabers 1, Odunze 1, Latham 1, Alt 1
4 of the six execs had the Giants deciding on a receiver, however there wasn’t robust conviction concerning which receiver can be the selection, partly as a result of the highest three wideouts might go in nearly any order.
An exec who despatched Harrison to the Cardinals at No. 4 settled on Odunze for the Giants.
“Nabers is extra pace, whereas Odunze is extra possession, large, robust, bodily,” this exec mentioned. “They could go along with Odunze simply because they took the pace man out of Tennessee (Jalin Hyatt) final yr, and this may be complement.”
The Giants need assistance on their offensive line, however they’ve invested current excessive draft selections within the place. The exec sending Latham to the Giants famous that the workforce appears to love SEC gamers. What a few quarterback?
“If you’re the Giants and J.J. McCarthy is there, I believe you need to take him,” one exec mentioned. “That doesn’t imply they are going to do it. They desperately want offensive line. Let’s simply give them Alt. I might see them saying, ‘If Jones doesn’t work this yr, we may have one other high 10 choose subsequent yr and fear about it then.’”
Vote distribution: Fashanu 2, Latham 1, Alt 1, Nabers 1, Verse 1
4 of the six execs despatched an offensive lineman to the Titans.
“They haven’t changed Taylor Lewan, they usually want to do this,” one of many execs mentioned. “The man they took final yr (Skoronski) was actually a guard. They want a left sort out.”
The lone exec sending a defensive participant to the Titans did so primarily based on what he is aware of about Tennessee’s GM, Ran Carthon.
“I believe they go along with the very best cross rusher,” this exec mentioned. “Ran would in all probability depend on his 49er days, in all probability take Verse. I’ve not personally studied Verse and Turner sufficient to have a robust opinion, however that’s my intestine primarily based on what I’ve seen.”
8. Atlanta Falcons: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
Vote distribution: Verse 2, Turner 2, Robinson 1, Latham 1
The execs typically thought the Falcons would handle their quarterback scenario in free company or by commerce, though one GM provided up one other chance.
“They’re the most definitely to commerce to 1 and get Caleb Williams, or commerce for Fields,” this GM mentioned.
Including younger cross rush assist for a veteran protection wouldn’t be as thrilling. It may very well be the best choice.
“You may’t take one other offensive ability participant, are you able to?” one of many execs mentioned. “I don’t see a quarterback essentially as a result of I believe they will signal Russell Wilson. They might go nook, too, however I’ll give them a cross rusher.”
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One other exec cautioned towards ruling out a receiver, noting that the Falcons might nonetheless use assist on the place. However he thought protection was extra possible.
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Vote distribution: Odunze 3, Nabers 1, Harrison 1, Byron Murphy II 1
Odunze was the highest-rated receiver accessible on this state of affairs and an easy choose for a workforce that focused its franchise quarterback on the high of the draft. The Bears additionally might discover a defensive participant for his or her defensive-minded coach, Matt Eberflus, below the pondering that Williams would unlock extra from their receivers, led by DJ Moore.
“To pair Caleb with a top-tier receiver, each of them younger, each with quite a lot of time, yeah, it will be actually onerous not to do this,” one exec mentioned.
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Vote distribution: Bowers 2, Nabers 1, Odunze 1, Fashanu 1, Latham 1
Not one of the execs thought deciding on a good finish on this slot can be a sound transfer.
“When you’re selecting within the high 10 and also you want offensive line assist and you’re taking a good finish, that’s malpractice,” the exec sending Fashanu to the Jets mentioned. “You may’t try this. That’s simply ridiculous.”
One other exec mentioned the Jets wanted to pick out a sort out on this slot, or commerce again and choose one. However he didn’t essentially assume the Jets would try this.
“It’s onerous within the high 10 to not take a building-block place, however the Jets are in a novel spot as a result of they should win this yr or they don’t have jobs,” this exec mentioned. “You might be getting weapons for Aaron Rodgers and he’s going to scheme it for you. They’ve swung and missed on so many offensive linemen. I’d assume they go offensive line in free company.”
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(High photographs of, Drake Maye, left, and Jayden Daniels: Grant Halverson, Jonathan Bachman / Getty Photographs)
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