NFL Fantasy Football Week 5 Lineup Decisions: Starts, Sits, Sleepers, Busts to know for every game

Fantasy Soccer is all in regards to the matchups. Despite the fact that you drafted your staff with sure hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup choices should not be decided by the order you picked your gamers in. You could examine who your gamers play and be sure you’ve obtained the correct guys in — and the improper guys out.

It is too early to be completely certain on which matchups shall be simple and which of them shall be powerful, however we will take some educated guesses based mostly on wholesome personnel, defensive schemes, monitor information and key particulars of offenses. The issues we all know may help us decrease the affect of the issues we do not know. This could result in higher choices being made.

We’ll undergo each recreation and spotlight the gamers who aren’t apparent begins and sits (since you do not should be advised to begin Justin Jefferson). You need to really feel extra comfy beginning or sitting gamers based mostly on the knowledge given, and feeling comfy together with your Fantasy lineup earlier than the video games begin is the most effective feeling on the earth.

It is also vital to have a eager eye for matchups dictated by the remaining schedule. I’m now updating my projected strength of schedule rankings every week over at SportsLine. My goal is to interrupt down how the schedule impacts each Fantasy related participant for the upcoming 4 weeks, the playoff stretch and the complete season. You will additionally be capable to discover my key takeaways on which gamers you should purchase low, promote excessive and extra commerce recommendation.

LAST WEEK: Posted his first-ever recreation with 4 passing touchdowns and over 300 yards in opposition to a Broncos protection that was devoid of a severe move rush or move protection expertise by means of the primary three quarters. By the fourth quarter the Broncos have been producing heavy strain and Fields completed 5 of 11 for 50 yards and no touchdowns with two turnovers.

FILM: For 3 quarters Fields appeared terrific firing downfield from clear pockets with loads of nice reads and correct throws together with a play or two the place he manipulated defenders with the specter of him operating solely to throw over their heads, together with on Kmet’s brief landing. His off-target fee was actually 0.0%. However by the fourth just some performs have been positive — on others he both was pressured, threw off his again foot, threw with an excessive amount of velocity or wasn’t on the identical web page as his goal. His off-target fee within the fourth was 9.1%, which was nearer to what he had averaged in his first three video games (13.6%). 

BRONCOS: Have allowed season-best Fantasy numbers to every of the previous three quarterbacks they’ve performed this season. They are a terrific matchup for anyone proper now. Keep in mind this once we discuss in regards to the Jets. 

COMMANDERS: Sport a barely below-average move rush strain fee due to just one recreation all 12 months with a fee over 30% (52.7% at Denver, and Wilson nonetheless had an excellent recreation even if you happen to take away a Hail Mary landing catch). They rank seventh in sacks (13) and 13h in pressures (53), which once more floats round league common. 

BEARS: Rank league-worst in move rush strain fee allowed at 47.4% of their snaps — almost one out of each two drop backs is pressured. Bringing again guard Teven Jenkins may assist a little bit, however they’re nonetheless a struggling unit. 

DEEP BALL: Washington ranks bottom-five in makes an attempt, yards per catch and touchdowns allowed on move performs of 15-plus Air Yards over the previous three weeks. That is an space Fields can exploit — he is tied for probably the most touchdowns on throws of 15-plus Air Yards this season than Fields with 4 and is round league-average in completion fee, makes an attempt per recreation and Anticipated Factors Added (EPA) per drop again. 

LAST SEASON: Washington obtained a season-best 57.1% move rush strain fee on Fields and blitzed him on 40.5% of his drop backs. Fields had one passing landing and one interception and nonetheless had almost 20 Fantasy factors as a result of he ran for 88 yards. 

RUSHING: Fields adopted up a Week 3 recreation with seven designed runs with simply two designed runs in Week 4 for 2 complete yards. On the season he is totaled 28 rushes for 134 yards and a rating. 

LAST WEEK: Bounced again from a horrid four-INT loss in Week 3 to finish almost 71% of his throws for 290 yards with one landing and a really clutch 40 speeding yards at Philly. This was probably the most environment friendly recreation of his younger profession, but it surely was additionally the busiest recreation of his profession as he threw 41 passes and ran six occasions. Enjoying into time beyond regulation helped his trigger.  

HOWELL: Has one recreation out of 5 as a professional with a number of passing touchdowns, and two others with one speeding and one passing rating. 

BEARS: Are one of many best matchups for a quarterback. They rank within the bottom-seven in completion fee allowed (70.1%), yards per catch allowed (12.2), Yards After Catch per reception (YAC/reception) allowed (6.26, second-most) and missed tackles (52). Another issue: Chicago ranks poorly in move rush strain fee, blitz fee and has simply two sacks all season. 

HOWELL: When not pressured has accomplished 73.8% of his throws for 7.2 yards per try with a 9.7% off-target fee. None of those are significantly spectacular — they’re all about league-average — however that is nonetheless a plus for Howell contemplating this week’s matchup. 

PASS ATTEMPTS: By way of 4 weeks the Bears are seeing a mean of 31.8 move makes an attempt in opposition to them per recreation. Even in a recreation the Bears led for a lot of final week, the Broncos tried simply 28 throws. On the flip aspect, three of the 4 quarterbacks Chicago confronted discovered three touchdowns on their restricted throws. 

PAST THREE WEEKS: McLaurin has led all Commanders extensive receivers in targets and all Commanders gamers in receptions. He is the No. 1 man, and his large Week 4 recreation (8-86-0 with an offensive fumble restoration for a landing) would have been even larger if Sam Howell had higher ball placement on a deep move McLaurin was open for. 

BEARS: Are anticipated to play once more with out prime outdoors cornerback Jaylon Johnson and security Eddie Jackson. Not that these two absences led to a bonanza from Broncos receivers; Russell Wilson unfold the ball round. But when McLaurin stays the goal chief then he’ll have the most effective shot at a giant recreation. Rookies Tyrique Stevenson and Terell Smith determine to line up throughout from McLaurin probably the most. 

MATCHUPS: Every top-target incomes extensive receiver that performs principally outdoors (like McLaurin) has discovered no less than 10 PPR factors in each recreation in opposition to the Bears. That features Rashee Rice in Week 3 (7 targets, 5-59-0), Courtland Sutton in Week 4 (5 targets, 3-27-1), Romeo Doubs in Week 1 (5 targets, 4-26-2) and Mike Evans in Week 2 (8 targets, 6-171-1). Be aware that these receivers mixed to catch 18 of 25 targets (72%) in opposition to Chicago. 

LAST WEEK: Cannot blame drops this time. Along with his prime receiver blanketed due to a heavy dose of man protection, and with a positive recreation script, Lawrence did not need to do an excessive amount of to assist the Jaguars roll previous the Falcons. His TD throw off-schedule to Ridley was superior, however Lawrence set season-lows in move makes an attempt (30) and throws of 10-plus Air Yards (20% fee). It is price noting that Week 4 was the primary time all 12 months a protection selected to play important man protection snaps in opposition to the Jaguars. 

THIRD DOWNS: Stunningly, Lawrence has accomplished simply 50% of his throws right here; solely Geno Smith has a worse fee amongst qualifying quarterbacks. Lawrence is averaging 4.4 yards per try with a 6.9-yard Common Depth of Goal (ADOT) on the cash downs, each rating bottom-six within the league. Just one move has been dropped on third down. It has been a drain on his Fantasy manufacturing. 

PRESSURE: Lawrence is neither getting good move safety nor thriving whereas below strain. Statistically he is a mixture of common and dangerous along with his 45.7% completion fee, 6.7 yards per try and 14.3% off-target fee when defenders get close to him. However the worst quantity is his EPA per dropback of minus-0.72; solely Jimmy Garoppolo, Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill are worse there. Which means he is hurting his staff greater than serving to when pressured. And to tie on this level with the prior one, he additionally occurs to be among the many least-blitzed quarterbacks on third downs this 12 months. 

BILLS: Misplaced prime cornerback Tre’Davious White to a torn Achilles final week which suggests some mixture of Christian Benford, Dane Jackson and Kaiir Elam (who had been benched for the primary 4 video games) will work at outdoors cornerback with Taron Johnson within the slot. That appears good, however the Payments move rush is among the many fiercest in soccer with a top-10 move rush strain fee (38.2%) with out blitzing a lot (15.3% blitz fee is second-lowest in soccer). The move rush might assist cowl up depth points within the secondary, particularly in opposition to the Jaguars. 

LAST WEEK: Saved enjoying as much as his growth/bust ceiling by catching a protracted landing. That is three straight video games with a rating. It was additionally his third recreation out of 4 with 4 or fewer targets. 

BOOM/BUST INDEED: Davis has a large ADOT of 16.8 yards (top-10 amongst 96 receivers with no less than 10 targets this season), however he additionally has a minuscule goal share of 13.6% and a goal per route run fee of 13.4% (86th out of these 96 receivers). He is clearly a job participant with a big-time skill-set that is not leaned on an excessive amount of. 

JAGUARS: Statistically are top-three in catch fee allowed to wideouts on throws of 15-plus Air Yards (29.4%) with seven passes defensed, however dead-last in yards per catch (43.8!) and YAC/reception (15.0!) on these passes which might be accomplished. They’ve performed a pleasant job staying shut in protection on these throws. 

ZONE COVERAGE: Jacksonville ranks fifth in zone protection fee (78.5%) and figures to play numerous it to maintain eyes on Josh Allen and deter him from throwing deep. They did the identical to Patrick Mahomes in Week 2. 

LAST WEEK: Had a landing referred to as again on a brief designed display and two extra runs from 10 yards or nearer get blown up. However no less than he started to separate from the opposite Texans rushers and end with 24 carries and a catch for over 100 complete yards, even when the runs weren’t environment friendly. 

FILM: Pierce’s imaginative and prescient and burst helped him on performs outdoors of the tackles and within the display recreation. He additionally did an admirable job combating for further yards play after play. Houston’s doing an excellent job using him despite its offensive line points, however these points do present up steadily anytime he ran between the tackles. 

INSIDE/OUTSIDE: In complete Pierce had 4.7 yards per run on outdoors performs with two explosive performs and a couple of.8 yards per run on inside performs with zero explosives in Week 4. On the season he is been a full yard worse on outdoors runs and about the identical on inside runs, so maybe he and the Texans are enhancing on these edge performs.

FALCONS: Have run cold and hot in opposition to the run however they’ve in the end been good by advantage of their 3.8 speeding common and nil speeding touchdowns allowed to operating backs this season. They gave up simply three runs of 10-plus yards to RBs of their previous three video games (all in opposition to Jahmyr Gibbs, none to Travis Etienne or A.J. Dillon). They’ve additionally held backs to 2.7 yards per keep on edge runs whereas yielding 4.3 yards on carries between the tackles. 

FALCONS: Haven’t allowed greater than 8 non-PPR/11 PPR factors to any operating again thus far this season. 

LAST WEEK: The Texans did not want him! Houston constructed a pleasant lead due to its protection and held on with out having to throw the ball a ton. 

FILM: The Steelers actually emphasised not getting beat deep by Dell, typically utilizing a security excessive to his aspect of the sphere to discourage C.J. Stroud from even fascinated with throwing at him. It labored out for the Steelers as a result of Dell had zero deep targets, and it labored for the Texans as a result of Nico Collins beat delicate protection a bunch together with on a 24-yard deep ball (Dell drew triple protection!) and on his lengthy landing rating (Dell obtained a security to cheat over to his aspect). 

FALCONS: Ought to be capable to deploy the identical sort of defensive protection with a security dishonest over to Dell’s aspect of the sphere. They may additionally stick outdoors cornerback A.J. Terrell on Collins and make issues a little bit more durable on the Texans. Terrell shadowed a receiver for the primary time this season in Week 4, contributing to Calvin Ridley’s modest day. It in the end would imply a number of our bodies on Dell.

 LAST WEEK: Was the second time in three weeks the place Smith outproduced Pitts, however the first time it was so lopsided. The distinction in snaps performed and routes run is marginal — Pitts did extra of each — however Smith is profiting from shorter routes with a quarterback who does not wish to problem downfield all that a lot. What’s extra, Smith averaged extra yards per catch not simply in Week 4 but in addition in Week 2, and he was behind Pitts by lower than a yard in Week 3 when each had no less than eight targets. 

FILM ON PITTS: There isn’t any change in his explosiveness in any respect. He is operating at a slower-than-expected tempo, however the Jaguars nonetheless paid him loads of consideration defensively, making a double-whammy that left him with out many targets. His longest alternative was a deep ball from Desmond Ridder that was well-placed and completely leapt for by Pitts, however he could not safe it to the bottom, nor was he separated from cornerback Tyson Campbell in any respect. Pitts was greatest on shorter routes in opposition to zone protection. 

ARTHUR SMITH: Stated this week that Pitts is not at 100%, including ” there are particular issues, you see him, and he is doing very well proper now and there are particular issues that he cannot [do well]. It has been a journey again. He will get there.”

FILM ON SMITH: From what I see, Smith is operating shorter routes and is getting open sooner than Pitts. That is earned him some targets from Ridder, who appeared to have higher timing with Smith than Pitts. Smith isn’t drawing any type of tight protection like Pitts both, principally as a result of he is staying nearer to the road of scrimmage. However after the catch Smith has been a handful, breaking three tackles simply final week and selecting up further yards with it. He is not quick, however he is sooner than Pitts, and for no less than final week and Week 2 it modified the calculus for a way the Falcons divvied up targets. 

TEXANS: Have had a bundle of troubles with tight ends, giving up an 84% catch fee and 6.76 YAC/reception to the place, each bottom-six within the league. That features permitting an 89% catch fee on 18 complete targets to Colts and Jaguars’ tight ends in Weeks 2 and three for 9.9 yards per catch and seven.2 YAC/reception. These numbers have been a byproduct of the quantity of zone protection they performed in opposition to each groups, leaving the brief center of the sphere open. Houston has performed the third-most zone protection of any staff this 12 months and may achieve this once more. 

LAST WEEK: Harris had his first recreation with over 100 complete yards in opposition to the Texans and averaged 5.1 yards per rush, simply shy of the season-high he technically had on six carries in opposition to the 49ers in Week 1. A 32-yard reception helped him cross the triple-digit barrier. 

HARRIS: This may shock you, however Harris is averaging 4.3 yards per run this 12 months with a 12.2% explosive run fee. Would you imagine the explosive run fee, which displays the frequency of his 12-plus-yard runs, is fifth-best amongst 44 qualifying operating backs?! He is additionally thirteenth in averted sort out fee and top-10 in yards after contact per carry at 3.53. 

TOUCHDOWNS: Harris has zero. By some means it will get worse: He has one carry contained in the 15-yard line. The Steelers have run the second-fewest red-zone performs (18, another than New England) and second-fewest performs contained in the 5-yard line (two, another than New England). The Steelers have performed 4 video games! That is nuts. 

RAVENS: Have but to permit a speeding rating to a operating again this 12 months. They have been in any other case strong in opposition to RBs, holding them to 4.0 yards per keep on the season and roughly league-average in different metrics together with missed tackles (15). However simply three gamers have averaged over 4.0 yards per carry: Joe Mixon (4.5 yards per run, did not have 100 complete yards, did not rating), Zack Moss (4.1 yards per run, ran for 122 yards on 30 carries and caught a landing) and Pierre Robust (9.8 yards per carry, most of it coming in rubbish time final week). 

HISTORY: Harris had over 120 complete yards and a landing in a Week 17 win in Baltimore final 12 months. He additionally scored on them with precisely 50 complete yards in opposition to them in at residence in Week 14. He has posted no less than 10 non-PPR factors in 3 of 4 profession video games. 

LAST WEEK: His enjoying time hit a season-low 43% of the snaps as he continued dropping third-down work to Chuba Hubbard. It hasn’t crushed his reception totals in any respect but it surely’s notable that his solely recreation with greater than 4 grabs got here with Andy Dalton below heart. Sanders additionally performed simply 31% of the Panthers’ second-half snaps, a big-time change after his second-half snaps have been lots nearer to Hubbard’s in Weeks 2 and three. 

SANDERS: His yards per carry has tumbled like a bowling ball downstairs this season, going from 4.0 in opposition to the Falcons to three.1 in opposition to the Saints to 2.7 in opposition to the Seahawks to 1.5 in opposition to the Vikings. Powerful matchups? Certain, even together with the Vikings. Doesn’t suggest it isn’t a great look. 

NOT SURPRISINGLY: Sanders has two runs of 12-plus yards by means of 4 video games — and neither went greater than 15 yards. It isn’t all on him — the offensive line for the Panthers barely gave him any daylight final week (and for a lot of the 12 months) and defenses aren’t but afraid of getting beat by Bryce Younger’s arm.

LIONS: Are a tricky matchup, giving up 2.9 yards per rush to operating backs on the season. That ranks top-three, as does their yards earlier than contact allowed (0.49) and runs of 10-plus yards allowed (three). Forgive them for the two.38 yards after contact per rush allowed — that is solely fifth-best within the league. Solely Kenneth Walker, on the energy of two touchdowns, has had greater than 5 non-PPR and 9 PPR factors in opposition to these Lions. 

LAST YEAR: Detroit was fairly sturdy in opposition to the run final 12 months once they went into Carolina and obtained completely pummeled by the Panthers run recreation (which included Chuba Hubbard). Coach Dan Campbell is aware of it — he accepted accountability for that loss final 12 months claiming the Lions “weren’t emotionally able to go.” They need to be this time round. Moreover, it is a completely different teaching employees in Carolina and, clearly, a unique run recreation. 

LAST WEEK: After an interception, Goff marched downfield and obtained the Lions a landing, then gave approach to David Montgomery to pound the Packers into submission. He had his lowest variety of move makes an attempt (28) and yards (210) this 12 months, and threw only one landing for the third time in 4 video games. 

PANTHERS: At 27.9% are lifeless final in move rush strain fee by means of 4 weeks. The one recreation this season once they had some strain on a quarterback was in opposition to the Seahawks, who’ve a beat-up offensive line. The Lions offensive line is close to full energy and have allowed Goff to be sacked 5 occasions by means of 4 video games. 

QUARTERBACKS: Have did not prime 20 Fantasy factors in opposition to the Panthers this season. That features Kirk Cousins final week, who solely threw 19 occasions in a win (and had two touchdowns however simply 13 Fantasy factors). Solely twice has a quarterback thrown greater than TWENTY passes in opposition to Carolina. 

RUNNING BACKS: Have clobbered the Panthers. For the primary three weeks of the 12 months a rusher had no less than two touchdowns in opposition to the Panthers. Final week no Vikings operating again did, however Alexander Mattison (5.6) and Cam Akers (8.0) every had uncharacteristically excessive speeding averages. Consider: The Vikings have principally operated like they’re allergic to operating the ball UNTIL they performed the Panthers. 

LAST WEEK: Had a landing referred to as again on a brief designed display and two extra runs from 10 yards or nearer get blown up. However no less than he started to separate from the opposite Texans rushers and end with 24 carries and a catch for over 100 complete yards, even when the runs weren’t environment friendly. 

FILM: Pierce’s imaginative and prescient and burst helped him on performs outdoors of the tackles and within the display recreation. He additionally did an admirable job combating for further yards play after play. Houston’s doing an excellent job using him despite its offensive line points, however these points do present up steadily anytime he ran between the tackles. 

INSIDE/OUTSIDE: In complete Pierce had 4.7 yards per run on outdoors performs with two explosive performs and a couple of.8 yards per run on inside performs with zero explosives in Week 4. On the season he is been a full yard worse on outdoors runs and about the identical on inside runs, so maybe he and the Texans are enhancing on these edge performs.

FALCONS: Have run cold and hot in opposition to the run however they’ve in the end been good by advantage of their 3.8 speeding common and nil speeding touchdowns allowed to operating backs this season. They gave up simply three runs of 10-plus yards to RBs of their previous three video games (all in opposition to Jahmyr Gibbs, none to Travis Etienne or A.J. Dillon). They’ve additionally held backs to 2.7 yards per keep on edge runs whereas yielding 4.3 yards on carries between the tackles. 

FALCONS: Haven’t allowed greater than 8 non-PPR/11 PPR factors to any operating again thus far this season. 

FILM: The numbers do not fairly match the expertise — Stevenson is a succesful runner with nice imaginative and prescient, steadiness and energy to go along with good velocity. He struggled on lateral runs final week and his line failed him loads on north-south runs. Sport script stored him from discovering numerous work final week (one fourth-quarter contact). 

THIS SEASON: Stevenson has no less than 16 touches in each recreation, which is nice. Sadly he has but to complete 100 yards and has been below 70 yards 3 times, which is unquestionably the other of excellent.

STEVENSON: The Patriots entrance 5 has gone by means of every kind of points and because of this have contributed to Stevenson averaging 0.98 yards earlier than contact per rush this season. That ranks twenty ninth out of 44 qualifying operating backs. And if you happen to assume that is dangerous then contemplate his yards after contact per rush common of 1.75, which is dead-last amongst those self same 44 qualifiers.

EXPLOSIVE RUNS: Stevenson has one (1) explosive carry of 12 or extra yards. It was in opposition to Miami. It went 12 yards. It is a large change from 2022 when he had 21 explosive runs and an explosive run fee of 10%, which was eighth-best. 

RECEIVING: Is averaging 4.0 targets per recreation and catching 75% of them however is getting simply 7.3 yards per catch and has one (1) explosive catch of 16 or extra yards. That one went for 32 yards in opposition to the Eagles in Week 1. Since then his longest reception has been for seven yards. 

SAINTS: Are sixth-best in speeding common to RBs (3.6) and are top-10 in principally each single run protection metric you might consider, together with missed tackles with simply 9 on the 12 months. The one rusher to exceed 10 Fantasy factors in opposition to them, PPR or not, was Derrick Henry in Week 1. He had 13 PPR factors. Nobody’s run for a landing on them both. 

SAINTS: Aren’t fairly as spectacular in opposition to operating backs by means of the air, however they are not terrible. Determine them as league common throughout the board besides in YAC/reception (8.53), however that was due to an enormous catch-and-run by Henry in Week 1. Since Week 2 their YAC/reception has been 5.94, sixth greatest in that span with zero explosive move performs allowed to RBs. So that they’re fairly good. 

LAST WEEK: Earlier than he fumbled the ball away twice, Mostert was splitting reps with De’Von Achane in a means that was unfavorable for him. Earlier than the Dolphins obtained contained in the 10-yard line Mostert had a 16-to-9 edge, then Achane performed each single snap inside the ten. Then after Mostert’s second fumble of the half, Mostert performed simply 9 of the remaining 35 snaps together with nothing close to the top zone. Coach Mike McDaniel preached the significance of his offense not having “self-inflicted wounds” instantly after the sport.

LAST TWO WEEKS: Achane performed all however two snaps contained in the 10-yard line for Miami, in order that looks like a giant a part of his function that can stick. As for third downs, Mostert has a one-snap edge over Achane at 6 to five, which suggests they’re splitting these priceless touches. General the targets have favored Mostert solely as a result of he had extra of them in Week 3 in opposition to Denver (7 to 4). 

GIANTS: Are about to get run over. Their 4.3-yard speeding common they’ve allowed is a shade worse than league common however they fee poorly in speeding touchdowns allowed (5), rushes of 10-plus yards allowed (14) and missed tackles on runs (24, fourth-worst in soccer). 

DOLPHINS:  Have cut up the workload fairly evenly regardless of the snap shares morphing in Achane’s favor. Final week Achane had 11 touches to Mostert’s 10. The week earlier than Achane had 22 to Mostert’s 20. The week earlier than that … Achane wasn’t a factor and Mostert had 19 touches to Salvon Ahmed’s six (Achane had none). A minimum of we will say over the previous two weeks that the Dolphins have used each backs somewhat evenly in touches, despite the fact that WHERE they’ve gotten them have not been as equal. 

LAST WEEK: Was so near having a monster recreation. He was the designed goal on a trick play and noticed the ball fall simply previous his outstretched arms in the long run zone. He additionally had two targets contained in the 10-yard line (his first two of the season) and two end-zone targets together with the aforementioned trick play (his first two of the season). The heavy dose of targets inside the ten and into the top zone are optimistic indicators that the Titans are attempting to get him going as a playmaker. 

FILM: Hopkins is perhaps 31 years previous however he moved actually, very well, creating separation with excellent footwork and having simply sufficient velocity to remain a step forward of defenders. He obtained open on a handful of third-down performs when he did not get a goal final week. 

TANNEHILL: Is the highest downside Hopkins has proper now. Hopkins’ 38-yard deep-ball catch final week might have been as many as 50 yards if Tannehill hit him in stride, and the gimmick-play landing would have clearly been a large point-getter had Tannehill been barely extra on-target there. There was even a goal into the top zone that was a miscommunication between Hopkins and Tannehill. On the season Tannehill has a 13% off-target fee however over the previous two video games that quantity has ballooned to 18%, which is … yikes. 

TITANS: The second downside Hopkins has proper now’s a Titans offense that is stayed true to their run-first choice — no less than once they win. On the 12 months they’re throwing the ball 54.6% of the time, Tenth-lowest, however of their wins they’ve thrown the ball 46.4% of their snaps. In losses they’ve thrown 64.4% of the time. The Colts are one-point residence favorites, which suggests at minimal the sport ought to be aggressive, which doesn’t assist the pass-run ratio outlook. 

COLTS: Are a frozen yogurt sundae of a dream matchup for Hopkins. On the season outdoors receivers like Hopkins have caught 72.3% of their targets for 12.7 yards per catch in opposition to the Colts. The catch fee is backside six, the yardage fee is top-12, however the Colts protection leads the NFL in missed tackles on passing performs with 10. Indianapolis additionally misplaced their prime outdoors nook, Dallis Flowers, to a torn Achilles. They’re going to roll with rookies JuJu Brents (80% catch fee allowed) and Jaylon Jones (performed two snaps this season) together with already-benched second-year nook Darrell Baker (TD allowed in every of first two video games) as outdoors cornerbacks. 

PASS RUSH: Rank fifth-worst in pass-rush strain fee and seventh-worst in blitz fee AND is perhaps with out edge rusher Kwity Paye. The Titans are helped by the return of rookie guard Peter Skoronski and sort out Nicholas Petit-Frere. Tannehill might have extra time to throw precisely. 

LAST WEEK: Regarded like a quarterback enjoying on one leg. Burrow did not get a lot into his throws, did not problem downfield a lot, obtained the ball out as quick as he might and was delicate to move rush strain. Even when the sport was in rubbish time Burrow could not get a lot going. 

AIR YARDS LAST WEEK: Burrow was 1 for 4 on throws of 10-plus Air Yards and 0 for two on throws of 15-plus Air Yards. 

AIR YARDS THIS SEASON: Burrow has been 11 for 38 on throws of 10-plus Air Yards and a couple of for 22 on throws of 15-plus Air Yards. 

TOUCHDOWNS: Burrow has thrown simply two scores this season. Each got here in opposition to Baltimore in Week 2, each have been throws contained in the five-yard line, each have been to Tee Higgins. That is it. Even his red-zone stats are unfathomable — he is accomplished 7 of 15 passes within the pink zone. A minimum of 9 of these 15 throws went into the top zone. 

PASS RUSH: Bengals opponents have began to smell out Burrow’s points and have come after him. The Browns and Titans had a move rush strain fee between 38& and 42% of their wins over Cincy with excessive blitz charges (no less than 31% every). Examine that to the Rams and Ravens, who barely introduced strain or blitzes and both misplaced or almost misplaced to the Bengals. 

CARDINALS: Are dead-last in blitz fee this season (14%) and third-to-worst in move rush strain fee (28%). They really had 9 sacks after Weeks 1 and a couple of however have had three since in opposition to the Cowboys and 49ers. Arizona appears to want utilizing simply 4 rushers to have an effect on the quarterback, one thing that ought to be useful to Burrow this week. 

CARDINALS: Rank eighth-worst in completion fee allowed (69.8%, although that was boosted closely by Brock Purdy’s 95% completion fee final week), and are bottom-five in each yards per catch (11.7) and missed tackles on move performs (49!). 

THREE WEEKS IN A ROW: With seven or fewer targets, Goedert has did not get even 50 yards receiving. His goal quantity dipped from seven in Weeks 2 and three to 4 in Week 4. Goedert had the identical quantity of targets as D’Andre Swift. 

NICK SIRIANNI: The Eagles coach once more mentioned “[w]e must get him the soccer,” citing that performs designed for him wound up going to different Eagles due to how defenses performed Goedert. 

FILM: If there’s one thing groups are doing to remove Goedert, I did not see it on any of his 9 third-down routes final week. Goedert nonetheless appeared sluggish in his actions and did not run a ton of deeper routes, although there have been a pair the place he did get open however Jalen Hurts had higher alternatives elsewhere. 

LAST WEEK: On the plus aspect, two of his targets have been within the pink zone and a 3rd was a deep contested catch for 17 yards. On the draw back, he dropped that fourth goal on a brief throw. 

GOEDERT: Has three red-zone targets and nil end-zone targets this season. 

RAMS: Bought stung for 2 touchdowns to tight ends at Indy final week, one on a 35-yard play the place Mo Alie-Cox obtained matched up with  DE-turned-OLB Mike Hoecht. The opposite was a five-yard toss to Andrew Ogletree, who ran previous Hoecht off the snap for a simple landing seize. These guys aren’t thought of main tight ends like Goedert, although, so it is unlikely the Rams would cowl Goedert the identical means as they lined them (which is to say, they barely did). 

BEFORE WEEK 4: The Seahawks, Bengals and 49ers tight ends, together with George Kittle, mixed for eight non-PPR/19 PPR Fantasy factors over three video games in opposition to the Rams. L.A.’s move stats in opposition to tight ends have been significantly better earlier than the Colts laid some numbers on them. 

LAST WEEK: Complete catastrophe. In a gamescript that really gave Minnesota an opportunity to — gasp! — run the ball, Kirk Cousins barely threw the ball and Addison went catchless on one goal. There was additionally a significant discount in snaps performed, right down to 58%. His season-low was 56% from Week 1. 

MATCHUP: With the Vikings able to operating the ball, the offense went with heavier formations. Backup tight finish Josh Oliver performed about as many snaps as he did in Week 1 and third tight finish Johnny Mundt noticed a season-high 17% of snaps. Week 4 was the primary time all 12 months the Vikings DIDN’T throw the ball on no less than 69% of their snaps. 

THIRD MAN: Final week did affirm that Addison may very well be the No. 3 extensive receiver within the offense behind Justin Jefferson and Ok.J. Osborn, however even with the donut Addison nonetheless has a five-catch lead on Osborn on the season with 68 extra yards gained. 

THIS WEEK: You possibly can financial institution on the Vikings reversing course in opposition to the Chiefs. Two of the previous three offenses in opposition to Kansas Metropolis wound up throwing no less than 71% of their snaps. The staff that did not? Chicago, who was so badly blown out by halftime that they ran the ball 55% of their second-half snaps simply to get out of Arrowhead. 

CHIEFS: Have been stout in opposition to receivers all season lengthy, rating top-five in catch fee allowed (53.4%) and YAC/reception allowed (2.96), and sixth-best in yards per catch given up (11.1). Even if you happen to take out the Bears recreation the Chiefs have yielded a 56.8% catch fee and a couple of.93 YAC/reception with a ten.9 receiving common to the Lions, Jaguars and Jets. Drill down even additional they usually’re nice in opposition to outdoors receivers like Addison by way of catch fee (45.8%) and YAC/reception (2.86), however they’ve allowed 15.0 yards per catch particularly to outdoors receivers. It is the one saving grace Addison has.

LAST WEEK: A breakout of types as Wilson caught 9 of 14 targets to spice up his PPR rating, however he in the end wound up with 60 receiving yards, his second-highest quantity of the season. Wilson was actual near cashing in a 29-yard landing however Zach Wilson was off-target with the throw. 

ZACH WILSON: Of the 36 targets Garrett Wilson has seen from Zach Wilson, 11 of them (31%) have been uncatchable. That does not embody one other three incompletions that have been both thrown late or predetermined that defenses have been capable of sniff out. 

SILVER LINING? Garrett Wilson is clearly the alpha of the passing recreation, accumulating no less than twice as many targets this season than anybody else on the Jets. 

THE REAL SILVER LINING: The Jets will tackle a Broncos protection that has been terrible to look at. No protection has allowed a better catch fee (85.1%) or scored a worse Defensive EPA per drop again (minus-0.79) collectively to extensive receivers than the Broncos. And after yielding an 86.7% catch fee advert 20.8 yards per catch to the Dolphins in Week 3, Denver circled and let up a 92.9% catch fee and 15.6 yards per catch to the Bears in Week 4! Even prime cornerback Pat Surtain has allowed a high-for-him 63% completion fee this season. Surtain allowed 4 catches for 56 yards over six targets in his protection final week. It doesn’t assist that Denver’s move rush has been virtually non-existent. 

Evaluation to return.

Evaluation to return.