NFL Coach of the Year, MVP candidates and biggest surprises at midseason: Sando’s Pick Six

Cowl 7 | Monday A each day NFL vacation spot that gives in-depth evaluation of soccer’s greatest tales. Every Monday, Mike Sando breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.

Simply as nobody predicted, the NFL season neared its midpoint Sunday with the Minnesota Vikings presenting a recreation ball to Joshua Dobbs in a locker room full of folks Dobbs barely knew.

The NFL, scripted? You may’t script what’s past comprehension, however with 135 of 272 regular-season video games within the books pending the Monday evening matchup, the Tremendous Bowl groups from final season, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, do sit atop their respective conferences.

It’s a good time to measurement up the league.

The Decide Six column for Week 9 kinds by means of my midseason decisions for Coach of the Yr, MVP, Defensive Participant of the Yr and extra. There’s an appreciation for Dobbs and his injured predecessor, Kirk Cousins, plus fast hits on the Giants, Raiders, Seahawks, Eagles and Cowboys. The total menu:

• Coach of Yr: McDaniel, Campbell, Harbaugh?
• MVP race: Quarterback streak in jeopardy
• Defensive Participant of the Yr and extra
• Seven greatest surprises of the season
• Tanking? Dobbs, Vikings ship recollections
• Two-minute drill: Giants and the highest decide

Now, on to the awards. Please maintain your applause til the tip.

1. Mike McDaniel is my Coach of the (Half) Yr, edging out Dan Campbell and John Harbaugh.

My selection:

Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins: McDaniel is bound to have a good time his choice right here the way in which he celebrated his staff setting an NFL file for yards by means of 5 video games.

“Mission completed,” McDaniel joked then. “We had the entire time, the entire low season, that was our aim, was output after 5 video games.”

The Dolphins are 0-3 towards the one contenders they’ve confronted, falling 48-20 to Buffalo, 31-17 to Philadelphia and 21-14 to Kansas Metropolis on Sunday. That doesn’t disqualify McDaniel right here as a result of he’s carried out such an important job leveraging his personnel to get record-setting manufacturing from an correct however restricted quarterback.

“The offensive numbers and manufacturing converse for themselves,” a defensive coach from one other staff stated. “He’s calling the offense, he’s designing the offense, he’s creating the motions we haven’t seen within the NFL earlier than. They give the impression of being Canadian to us.”

The Dolphins have nice velocity at huge receiver, however with out McDaniel scheming open these gamers with inventive motions, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would have a more durable time delivering the ball on time. Tagovailoa’s limitations turn into apparent when opponents disrupt that timing. That’s the reason coaches and execs voted Tagovailoa into Tier 3 earlier than the season.

“Mike does an excellent job by way of schematics and appears and optics of issues,” one other defensive coach stated. “It permits Tua to play quick, and Tyreek has house to run his routes. Individuals can’t simply roll to him on a regular basis. He doesn’t simply must be a vertical man or catch shallows and catch-and-runs. He can do all of it. The offense showcases all that for him.”

McDaniel’s humility serves him effectively. Hiring senior assistants can really feel threatening for youthful coaches, however not McDaniel. He embraced including defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who was calling defensive performs earlier than McDaniel was born.

“To me, McDaniel is the neatest man within the room, however gained’t allow you to assume he thinks it,” an exec stated.

Shut behind:

Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions: The Lions are enjoying with expectations for the primary time and reside as much as them. The staff and metropolis have embraced Cambpell’s management, reviving a dormant franchise. The Lions are minus-1,000 favorites to win the NFC North and return to the playoffs, a serious accomplishment for the franchise.

“Campbell will get credit score for overcoming the notion of him from ‘Onerous Knocks’ a 12 months in the past and believing in his strategies,” a staff exec stated.

Campbell’s candidacy is a continuation from final season when he overcame a 1-6 begin. His workers administration over the previous couple seasons — selling Ben Johnson to offensive coordinator, staying the course with Aaron Glenn on protection, making an in-season change of the defensive backs coach — appear to have been the proper ones.

“These had been nice strikes,” a rival coach stated. “He makes positive his imaginative and prescient for taking part in fashion is fulfilled, however he is not only old-school Invoice Parcells. They’re one of many extra aggressive fourth-down groups, for instance. It’s a pleasant mixture.”

GO DEEPER

NFL Energy Rankings Week 10: Midseason report playing cards, and we’ve a brand new No. 1

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens: There have been occasions final offseason when it appeared attainable Harbaugh had reached his shelf life in Baltimore, which may occur to even the perfect coaches after so a few years in a single place. His quarterback was estranged, he was putting in a brand new offense and his staff hadn’t superior previous the divisional spherical for the reason that 2012 season.

The potential for implosion was there. As an alternative, the Ravens are 7-2 after hammering Seattle 37-3 in Week 9. They rank eighth in offensive EPA per play whereas establishing a brand new identification with elevated use of three huge receivers and extra measured utilization of Lamar Jackson as a runner. The protection ranks second in EPA per play. It has allowed 9 touchdowns by means of 9 video games, matching the historic 2000 Ravens protection.

“I feel it’s fascinating that two of the three coaches right here (Harbaugh and Campbell) don’t name performs,” a veteran coach famous. “A lot goes into the sport plan, in-game selections and every thing else that you simply actually must be a high coach to do all of it successfully.”

2. Quarterbacks have gained MVP honors for 10 years operating. The streak might finish this season.

This season has been removed from a showcase for the quarterback-driven passing recreation.

Tagovailoa and the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy rank 1-2 in EPA per cross play. It is perhaps a bit of harsh to name them level guards for extremely schemed offenses, however there’s some reality to the outline. Patrick Mahomes is perhaps the NFL’s finest participant, however his Chiefs are successful largely with protection. The identical goes for the Ravens.

My selection:

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: Hill’s 1,076 yards rank sixth in NFL historical past by means of the primary 9 video games of a season. Although no receiver poses a higher vertical menace, Hill additionally excels turning shorter routes into massive good points. His willingness to constantly execute presnap motions at most velocity elevates his offense. Beneath we see how his nine-game yardage whole ranks.

Shut behind:

A.J. Brown, Eagles: Brown’s 1,005 yards by means of 9 video games rank twentieth in league historical past, falling a single yard behind the career-best tempo for Jerry Rice, set in 1990. His file streak of six consecutive video games with not less than 127 yards ended with a seven-catch, 66-yard recreation towards the Cowboys in Week 9.

Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns: No defensive participant has gained MVP honors from the Related Press or Professional Soccer Writers of America since Lawrence Taylor in 1986. May this be the 12 months with defenses having their manner? Garrett ranks second in sacks (9.5), fifth in strain price (minimal 100 pass-rush snaps) and is tied for first in compelled fumbles (4). He’s the dominant participant on the NFL’s runaway No. 1 protection by EPA and success price.

3. Defensive Participant of the Yr, Rookies of the Yr and the runaway winner for Comeback Participant of the Yr.

Defensive Participant of the Yr: Garrett. Garrett’s next-level work is with out rival. He leap-frogged an Indianapolis lineman cleanly to dam a field-goal attempt in a tie recreation. He additionally induced Tennessee right into a delay penalty by repeatedly operating throughout the formation after realizing the Titans had been shadowing his actions. See each performs beneath.

Myles Garrett went up and over to dam the FG 😳

📺: #CLEvsIND on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/iTs8HMaXlh pic.twitter.com/f844VPi1ea

— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2023

I’m unsure I’ve EVER seen this earlier than!

Myles Garrett forces the Titans right into a delay of recreation penalty, as a result of they’re sending 2 offensive gamers wherever he aligns… WOW!

Garett has 3.5 sacks on the day. #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/2WrjTGqTod

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) September 24, 2023

Offensive Rookie of the Yr: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans. His five-touchdown efficiency throughout a 39-37 victory towards Tampa Bay pushed him previous Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua on the midpoint. Nacua has been the extra constant producer; he trails solely Hill and Brown in receiving yards. Stroud has the Texans at 4-4 and full of hope.

When Stroud and the Texans took possession for the ultimate time Sunday, they trailed Tampa Bay 37-33 with 46 seconds remaining. Seventy-five yards separated them from the tip zone. Stroud accomplished all 5 cross makes an attempt (minus one spike) for 75 yards and the successful landing to Tank Dell.

Groups in comparable conditions — needing a landing to tie or win, having not less than 75 yards to go, having 30-60 seconds left in regulation — lose virtually each time. The Texans had been in higher form than most, having preserved two timeouts. Nonetheless, the chances towards them had been steep.

Since 2000, groups going through that scenario had been 0-74 with fewer than two timeouts and 2-20 in any other case, per TruMedia. Stroud helped Houston declare the third victory from these dire circumstances (groups with lower than 30 seconds had been 0-130).

Houston gained regardless of ending the sport minus-15.6 EPA on protection and particular groups, worst within the league for Week 9. Since 2000, groups ending video games with between minus-17 and minus-14 mixed EPA on protection and particular groups have gained simply 18 p.c of the time (95-432-3). Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers account for 28 of the 95 victories since 2000.

This throw and catch to arrange the game-winning landing.

CJ Stroud 🤝 Tank Dell pic.twitter.com/58yhquLlHE

— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023

Defensive Rookie of the Yr: Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles. Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon was the opposite main candidate right here, however with Seattle permitting 515 yards at Baltimore on Sunday, there will probably be a greater time to revisit his candidacy.

Comeback Participant of the Yr: Damar Hamlin, Buffalo Payments. In some other 12 months, the New York Jets’ Breece Corridor is perhaps a straightforward selection. What Hamlin overcame is with out precedent. His transfer to determine scholarships named for the ten medical professionals who helped save his life in Cincinnati final season was the proper gesture.

Final evening I had dinner with my heroes. 10 of the UC Medical Workers that helped save my life.

I shocked them with a scholarship named after every of them that can help youth in Cincy to chase their goals.

Wouldn’t be right here if it wasn’t for them!🫶🏾 pic.twitter.com/sEOCDkwYvk

— 𝐃𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐫 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐥𝐢𝐧 (@HamlinIsland) November 5, 2023

4. In a season with out true shock groups, there have nonetheless been shocking developments. Listed below are seven that stand out to me.

The Joshua Dobbs Expertise: From Cleveland to Arizona to Minnesota and into Vikings lore with the successful landing cross 5 days after becoming a member of the staff, with out significant follow reps. See merchandise No. 5 for extra on this one.

An NFL proprietor grooving to Meek Mill’s “Desires and Nightmares”: Wait, it was the Colts’ Jim Irsay. Not shocking in any respect.

Maintain up, wait a minute, ya’ll thought we had been completed. – Meek Mill (and in addition me) 🏈🕺 pic.twitter.com/itIc8xcNF0

— Jim Irsay (@JimIrsay) November 6, 2023

Invoice Belichick Job Watch by Week 5: Arguably essentially the most profitable coach in NFL historical past misplaced by a mixed 72-3 margin in successive weeks, together with 34-0 at residence to the mediocre New Orleans Saints. The staff is 1-3 since then, 2-7 total and going through massive questions.

Browns’ uncommon path: The Cleveland Browns are 5-3 regardless of Deshaun Watson lacking greater than half the offensive performs and Nick Chubb struggling a season-ending knee damage after solely 28 carries. Their offense ranks twenty ninth in EPA per play. Credit score a dominant protection.

Colts’ reversal: The Colts have jumped from thirty second in offensive factors per recreation final season to eighth this season, 4 spots forward of the Chiefs, regardless of quarterback instability. Zack Moss ranks second to Christian McCaffrey in dashing yards. Josh Downs, the 5-foot-9, 172-pound receiver Indy chosen within the 2023 third spherical, has extra receiving yards than equally sized Ravens rookie first-rounder Zay Flowers.

Kansas Metropolis’s protection: The Chiefs personal the identical 7-2 file they’d final season, with an almost equivalent level differential, regardless of scoring 6.7 fewer factors per recreation. Mahomes vowed the offense would discover its manner. If that occurs, look out. Come to consider it, look out regardless. The Chiefs are a tricky out.

Carolina’s offense trails Arizona’s offense: The Panthers rank twenty eighth in offensive EPA per play, one spot beneath the Cardinals, regardless of polar reverse approaches to the quarterback place.

Carolina employed a veteran offensive head coach in Frank Reich and surrounded him with big-name assistants, together with Jim Caldwell. The Panthers additionally used the primary decide within the 2023 draft for quarterback Bryce Younger. All of the offseason focus was on getting ready Younger for fulfillment.

Arizona employed a first-time head coach with a defensive background, then lower its journeyman projected beginning quarterback, Colt McCoy, a pair weeks earlier than the season. The Cardinals then acquired Dobbs, began Dobbs, benched Dobbs, traded Dobbs and turned to Clayton Tune this week whereas awaiting Kyler Murray’s debut following offseason knee surgical procedure.

5. Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson? Attempt Joshua Dobbs to Brandon Powell for one of the vital memorable Minnesota Vikings victories.

Consider all of the arguments put forth encouraging groups to tank for improved draft standing, after which take into account what the Vikings’ 31-28 victory meant for all who skilled it, together with followers. There’s no manner Minnesota would commerce Sunday to choose one slot larger in 2024.

We wanted each final man at the moment.#Skol pic.twitter.com/nPMlyiwzPg

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 5, 2023

Dobbs handed for 2 touchdowns and rushed for one more on a day when coach Kevin O’Connell was explaining issues to him by means of the coach-to-quarterback headset, with teammates filling in particulars throughout their conferences within the huddle.

The day started with Vikings gamers honoring Cousins by carrying tribute T-shirts in pregame warmups. It ended with Corridor of Famers reminiscent of Warren Moon and Kurt Warner saluting Dobbs on social media.

The time will come for the Vikings to make massive selections relating to their future on the place. Cousins is unsigned previous this season (as is Dobbs). Because the chart beneath exhibits, the Vikings’ offensive manufacturing spiked dramatically with Cousins’ arrival in 2018.

The long run can wait. The Vikings’ fast focus must be on producing a commemorative recreation ball with Dobbs’ identify and pertinent particulars from his sweetest victory.

6. Two-minute drill: Giants in place to snag high decide in 2024

The Giants already had one eye on subsequent season after they traded defensive deal with Leonard Williams to Seattle final week. Shedding quarterback Daniel Jones to a possible torn ACL throughout a 30-6 defeat at Las Vegas delivered an emotional blow that can linger. Long run, the staff might want to take into account its choices within the draft, particularly with a top-five decide all however assured.

The present 2024 draft order slots the Giants at No. 4, with upward mobility:

1. Arizona (1-8): Murray’s return might drop Arizona within the order.
2. Carolina (1-7): This decide belongs to Chicago, however the order is decided by Carolina, which performs the seventh-easiest remaining schedule.
3. Chicago (2-7): The Bears play the Panthers on Thursday evening and would possibly or won’t enhance as soon as Justin Fields returns.
4. Giants (2-7): The Giants play the seventh-toughest remaining schedule.
5. New England (2-7): The Patriots face the Giants in Week 12.

The contract Jones signed throughout the offseason affords some flexibility if and when the time comes for such a dialogue to happen.

• Eagles on the bye: The Philadelphia Eagles head into their bye week with an 8-1 file after holding off the Dallas Cowboys 28-23. The break comes at a great time for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who stayed within the recreation Sunday after aggravating a knee damage and offered out on a quarterback sneak whereas backed up, amongst different performs that absolutely harassed the joint.

The Eagles’ 8-1 begin is the perfect for a staff coming off a Tremendous Bowl loss for the reason that 2000 Titans additionally gained eight of their first 9. It’s a lot better than the newest Tremendous Bowl losers began, as seen within the desk beneath.

• State of the Cowboys: As for the Cowboys, their schedule eases up with video games towards the Giants, Panthers and Commanders the following three weeks. They are going to seemingly win massive, which often results in championship speak from proprietor Jerry Jones, adopted by a giant letdown.

As for championships, the variety of Texas-based professional sports activities groups to win titles extra not too long ago than the Cowboys grew when the Texas Rangers gained the World Collection final week.

• Get together time in Vegas: The Raiders firing up stogies to have a good time victory over the Giants of their first recreation since Antonio Pierce changed Josh McDaniels as coach appeared like nice enjoyable.

The Raiders had been smoking celebratory cigars after their first win with out Josh McDaniels 💨

Mark Davis was loving it 😂

🎥 ig/maxxcrosby pic.twitter.com/3zlvqGVm8n

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 6, 2023

How the Raiders received into this case may very well be extra vital for the long-term outlook. Reviews recommended gamers lobbied proprietor Mark Davis to make a training change.

The file on the sector suggests McDaniels was ineffective as head coach. Davis’ processes don’t appear higher, with or and not using a victory over the Tommy DeVito-quarterbacked Giants.

The Colts gained Jeff Saturday’s debut final season (over the Raiders), then dropped their seven remaining video games. The Raiders have the Jets, Dolphins and Chiefs subsequent. Let’s see what number of stogies they undergo after these video games.

• Seattle rocked: The Seahawks allowed 515 yards, together with 298 dashing, to Baltimore within the Seahawks’ first recreation since buying Williams from the Giants to fortify their defensive entrance. Their offense was 3 times as dangerous from an EPA standpoint.

That’s a foul mixture for a staff attempting to determine a brand new custom with a youthful roster.

The Seahawks underneath Pete Carroll as soon as went 65 consecutive regular-season and playoff video games with out dropping by double digits, the second-longest streak for the reason that Twenties Bears, per Professional Soccer Reference. Their 37-3 defeat in Baltimore tied for second-worst of the Carroll period in Seattle, almost matching a 42-7 blowout vs. the Rams in 2017.

Seattle is now averaging 19.6 offensive factors per recreation, its lowest common this late in a season since 2021, when the Russell Wilson period was unraveling.

What does such a lopsided defeat imply for a staff that sees itself on the rise?

This was the tenth time up to now decade a staff not less than two video games above .500 misplaced by 30-plus factors throughout roughly the identical level in a season (Weeks 7-10).

It occurred final month when the Ravens blew out Detroit, 38-6.

Two groups rebounded properly.

The 2017 Buffalo Payments fell 47-10 to the Saints in November of that season, then completed 4-3 to succeed in the playoffs. The 2020 Buccaneers misplaced 38-3, additionally to the Saints, earlier than closing with a 5-2 mark and successful the Tremendous Bowl.

The opposite six groups mixed to complete 11-37 over the rest of their seasons. That file counts the 2018 Bengals two occasions, as they had been blown out by 30-plus factors twice in a three-game stretch, in the end falling from 5-3 to 6-10.

(Prime photograph of Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill: Wesley Hitt / Getty Pictures)

“The Soccer 100,” the definitive rating of the NFL’s finest 100 gamers of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.